Welcome to this week’s On Our Radar, our summary of developments from the past week that will have a significant impact on emerging markets, and, crucially, exactly why they are relevant to foreign investors.
These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive services – if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.
This week’s banner image is of Guyana President Irfaan Ali, who called elections for 1 September this week, earlier than had been expected.
Country Insights Roundup
Algeria: Statistics Office Reshuffles Still Leave Economic Actors in the Dark
What happened: The National Statistics Office released a positive economic report after a string of publications that embarrassed President Tebboune. Those reports prompted swift firings and restructurings.
Why it matters: Poor access to data is among the perennial headaches that foreign investors face in Algeria. The recent changes will bring little improvement on that score.
What happens next: The office now sits under Algeria’s digitization commission, where it is likely to remain subject to political pressures. Smart investors will lean into human intelligence networks.
Brazil: Clouds Gather Over Upcoming Tender
What happened: Oil sector workers joined the opposition to the 17 June tender, questioning the use of the concessionary regime for equatorial margin play blocks offered in the bidding round.
Why it matters: The Federal Public Ministry and the Instituto Arayara have also taken legal action to remove 47 blocks in the Foz do Amazonas Basin.
What happens next: Strong opposition and legal uncertainty will likely discourage bidders who might otherwise assume risks inherent in frontier basin plays.
Cote d’Ivoire: Government Struggles to Contain Growing Money Laundering Problem
What happened: An FBI team has begun an investigation in Abidjan into suspected Hezbollah terrorist financing stemming from financial networks in Cote d’Ivoire.
Why it matters: The incident underscored Cote d’Ivoire’s growing exposure to terrorist financing networks and money laundering. The country was added to the Financial Action Task Force’s grey list in October 2024.
What happens next: Following senior ministers’ implication in recent corruption and money laundering cases, the government will unlikely get a handle on the scourge soon. Attempts to crack down on money laundering could result in increased bureaucracy and delays to business. Extensive due diligence will become more important over the coming years.
Cyprus: Aphrodite Seabed Survey Starts, but Ishai Impasse Persists
What happened: The Aphrodite partners have begun seabed surveys to define a proposed pipeline route from the field to Egypt as part of pre-front-end engineering design (FEED), the first step in developing the Cypriot gas field.
Why it matters: Since a portion of Aphrodite, discovered in 2011, crossed over into Israeli waters, the development of the gas field was always going to prove complex absent a unitization deal. Cyprus was initially dismissive of how much the field overlapped into Israeli waters, drawing the ire of the Israeli government and the partners at Ishai (how the Israelis call the field).
What happens next: In February, the Aphrodite partners submitted a field development plan and signed an MoU in Cairo to send the gas to Egypt. Cyprus needs to reach some sort of agreement with Israel to avoid further delays.
Ghana: Investor Interest Rebounds in Oil Sector As Policy and Regulatory Reforms Loom
What happened: Major oil and gas operators announced big new investments to sustain production levels after the Mahama administration pledged a comprehensive review of the industry’s policy and regulatory framework.
Why it matters: This could revitalize the sector and restore investor confidence to reverse the decline in oil production, which has been falling since its 2019 peak.
What happens next: The government will be able to push through its fiscal reforms with its ample majority in parliament, but we expect proposed fiscal concessions — such as reduced state participation — to face political and public scrutiny amid growing resource nationalism.
Guyana: With Opposition in Disarray, Election is Ali’s to Lose
What happened: President Ali called the elections on 1 September, earlier than expected.
Why it matters: Ali and the ruling PPP will benefit from a divided opposition and his record of oil-funded big spending.
What happens next: The political silly season will be dominated by nasty mudslinging and the risk of violence from racial tensions and inequality.
Kazakhstan: Port Arrest and Strikes Cloud Kilybay’s First Year
What happened: Governor Nurdaulet Kilybay completed his first year leading the Mangistau region amid major energy investments, infrastructure failures, labor unrest and a scandal involving the port authority.
Why it matters: Despite progress on renewables and port dredging, unresolved water shortages, public discontent and a senior official’s detention expose deep governance and stability concerns.
What happens next: Kilybay’s future hinges on turning pilot projects into real improvements. If he fails to manage crises and restore confidence, his ouster is increasingly likely.
Morocco: New UAE Water, Energy Deals Will Boost Gas-Fired Power Capacity
What happened: State-owned and royal-linked entities signed new deals with UAE-owned TAQA Morocco to develop water, renewables and gas turbine facilities.
Why it matters: The deal strengthens Morocco-UAE strategic cooperation and supports Rabat’s ambitions to tackle water scarcity and bolster its energy security.
What happens next: The energy component will accelerate the country’s renewable transition and boost gas-fired power capacity, facilitating its pivot away from coal.
Nigeria: Team Tinubu Vs Burkinabe Bots in Reputation Wrangle
What happened: The Tinubu administration is stepping up its PR game to counter increasing disinformation in northern Nigeria and compete with Burkinabe leader Ibrahim Traore’s glowing, bot-driven reputation.
Why it matters: Tinubu’s reputation management efforts come amid widespread insecurity in the Nigerian north and a renewed effort to entice energy investors to Nigeria’s frontier basins — some located in the northern states worst affected by recent violence.
What happens next: Without economic stability and improved security, northern Nigeria will remain a fertile ground for disinformation and a hostile environment for energy investors.
Turkey: Can Erdogan Afford to Sacrifice His Economic Prince for the Second Time?
What happened: The Erdogan administration is facing internal turbulence over economic policy, while rumors about Finance Minister Simsek’s looming dismissal are spreading.
Why it matters: The clash between Simsek’s market-friendly policies and Erdogan’s unorthodox economic views has become clearer after the controversial arrest of opposition leader Imamoglu.
What happens next: Due to his investor credibility, we believe Simsek will remain in place for now, but his position remains highly precarious.
Stakeholder Influence Tracker: Egypt’s New and Renewable Energy Authority (NREA) Chairman, Ehab Ismail
Emirati renewables developer AMEA Power has commissioned the largest wind farm in Africa, the Amunet facility at Ras Ghareb, on the Red Sea coast in a boost for NREA Chairman Ehab Ismail.
The 500MW wind farm was developed on a concession from the New and Renewable Energy Authority (NREA) and adds to Ismail’s list of active green power facilities.
After several years of stagnation, that list is growing rapidly nin 2025. NREA’s latest data show that installed renewables capacity has grown by 20% this fiscal year. And the total will be nearly 9GW by the 30 June end of the fiscal year. Ismail can’t take too much credit, having only assumed his post in March. But the expanding capacity should contribute to renewed momentum in the renewables sector, which stalled out after Egypt hosted the COP27 conference in 2022.
With Europe’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism due to kick in in January 2026, Ismail’s agency stands to gain more prominence in helping secure foreign investment and reinforce Egypt’s long-term energy security.
Find Out More
These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive products – if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.
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