Welcome to this week’s On Our Radar, our summary of developments from the past week that will have a significant impact on emerging markets, and, crucially, exactly why they are relevant to foreign investors.
These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive services – if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.
This week’s banner image is of ARAMCO President Amin Nasser (attribution: World Economic Forum under Creative Commons 3.0), who features in our Influence Tracker section at the bottom of the newsletter.
Country Insights Roundup
Algeria: ALNAFT Extends Upstream Bid Round, Citing Strong Demand
What happened: ALNAFT President Mourad Beldjehem announced that the bid round launched last November would be extended by two months to close in June.
Why it matters: Beldjehem cited strong interest from international investors. This is a transparent attempt to attract more bids, a key measure for the health of Algeria’s upstream investment climate and Beldjehem’s only hope of holding onto his seat.
What happens next: The bid round looks to be on track for success, though Beldjehem’s lackluster performance inspires little hope that he’ll be around much beyond its close.
Argentina: Milei Self-Inflicts His First Major Corruption Scandal
What happened: President Javier Milei tripped into the first corruption scandal of his administration by promoting a crypto token whose market value collapsed in a few hours.
Why it matters: The incident impacts Milei’s reputation as a genius economist and an honest politician whose mission is to fight the corrupted “caste.” It is also the latest example of the administration not paying enough attention to transparency.
What happens next: We expect the subsequent court investigation to move slowly, but the political fallout of the case will also likely slow the government’s capacity to advance its reform agenda.
Brazil: Lula Asserts Global Energy Leadership
What happened: The CNPE approved Brazil’s membership in the IEA and IRENA, as well as its formal integration into OPEC+.
Why it matters: Moves to join international energy organizations reveals President Lula’s efforts to shape global energy governance ahead of hosting the BRICS summit in July and the COP30 in November.
What happens next: The CNPE’s decisions boost the administration’s twofold strategy of increasing all-inclusive energy production and exports while articulating a pragmatic path toward net zero in 2050.
Cote d’Ivoire: US Relations Uncertain Following USAID Withdrawal
What happened: The US Commander of Africom, Michael Langley, reassured Defense Minister Ouattara that the US intended to continue training and equipping the Ivorian military.
Why it matters: This is a significant reassurance for US-Cote d’Ivoire relations following the recent abrupt withdrawal of USAID funding, but US President Trump could still withdraw military support.
What happens next: If President Trump ultimately opts to withdraw military support in line with his isolationist policies, this will undermine security in northern Cote d’Ivoire and jeopardize commercial ties with Western companies.
Greece: Athens to Leverage US Exploration Rights to Offset Turkey-Syria Pact
What happened: Athens is seeking safeguards against growing Turkish influence over the post-Assad regime in Syria.
Why it matters: Ongoing tensions between Greece and Turkey are having a chilling effect on all offshore activities, including hydrocarbon exploration, which could worsen with a Turkey-Syria maritime pact.
What happens: We expect the Mitsotakis administration to use exploration rights as a lure for US backing.
Kazakhstan: Government Leadership Changes to Impact Energy and Mining
What happened: A government reshuffle saw new appointments impacting the energy and mining sectors: Bolat Akchulakov became Kazenergy chairman, Magzum Mirzagaliyev returned as a presidential advisor and Ermek Kosherbayev was appointed deputy prime minister.
Why it matters: These appointments highlight President Tokayev’s reliance on experienced — but sometimes controversial — figures to enact his energy policy despite public calls for fresh faces.
What happens next: We expect the reshuffle to bolster regulatory scrutiny on companies like Kazakhmys following recent industrial accidents. However, the return of familiar figures will likely limit innovation and continue factional struggles.
Morocco: As Tendrara Gas Project Nears Finish Line, Monarchy Steps into Hydrocarbon Sector
What happened: After delays due to logistical challenges and a tax dispute, Sound Energy announced that the Tendrara gas field will begin production in late 2025, with output expected to rise significantly by 2027.
Why it matters: The timeline appears realistic thanks to the direct involvement of Managem, the crown-owned mining giant that acquired a controlling stake in the project last year.
What happens next: The Tendrara deal marks Managem’s entry into the oil and gas sector. The company’s plans to become a key energy player in Morocco and Africa have big implications for investors.
Namibia: NNN to Strengthen Local Content, State Participation in Upstream Petroleum
What happened: The ruling Swapo party has released a Party Manifesto Implementation Plan. It decrees that the long-debated local content policy will be finalized by September 2025, a Local Content Act will be passed by March 2026, and the establishment of an oil and gas logistics and supply base to drive local content in the sector and an upstream petroleum regulator.
Why it matters: The plan’s inclusion of rapid timelines and peremptory decisions is a shift from Swapo’s 2024 election manifesto, which was much vaguer in tone. Greater state involvement in upstream petroleum could raise concerns for investors, particularly given Namcor’s recent turbulent history. Likewise, a fast-tracked local content law — if enforced without adequate consultation — may create uncertainty in the sector.
What happens next: Swapo has a history of setting ambitious targets and tight timelines, only to fall short in implementation. We will monitor if NNN’s more assertive leadership will drive swift but possibly disconcerting action.
Nigeria: Ribadu Rides Out Binance Claims; Eyes Political Future
What happened: A Binance executive alleged NSA Ribadu’s complicity in bribery demands during the businessman’s 2024 detention on money laundering charges in Nigeria.
Why it matters: If true, the allegations undermine the Tinubu administration’s claims of being a pro-business, anti-corruption government. The timing is concerning, as Trump has suspended enforcement of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act.
What happens next: Ribadu, a feted anti-corruption campaigner, is working hard to distance himself from the allegations. He will make overtures to the Trump administration to counter any negative impact on US-Nigeria business ties. Looking further out, Ribadu is said to be building a war chest for a future presidential run.
United States: Ukraine Poses Risks for Uncomfortable Republican Senators
What happened: Secretary of State Marco Rubio led a delegation to Riyadh to meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to discuss repairing relations.
Why it matters: This is the first concrete move that the Trump administration has taken to end the war in Ukraine, seemingly on Russia’s terms.
What happens next: Congress is still largely pro-Ukraine and could start to push back against Trump if it seems like he is surrendering to Putin. Still, given their inability to force a change in foreign policy, they will likely keep quiet until hit with attack ads in the 2026 midterms.
Stakeholder Influence Tracker: ARAMCO President Amin Nasser
Amin Nasser’s Aramco signed an agreement to acquire a 25% stake in the Philippines’ Unioil.
This deal is the latest in Aramco’s recent expansion efforts. Last year, the company acquired 100% of Chile’s Esmax and secured a 40% stake in Pakistan’s Oil and Gas (GO).
In our view, this deal is a major step in Aramco’s expansion into East Asia, particularly in the downstream sector. This will support Nasser’s broader focus on diversification and global growth.
Find Out More
These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive products – if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.
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