Welcome to this week’s On Our Radar, our summary of developments from the past week that will have a significant impact on emerging markets, and, crucially, exactly why they are relevant to foreign investors.
These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive services – if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.
Country Insights Roundup
Algeria: New Government and New Budget Point to Familiar Risks
What happened: President Tebboune has reshuffled the government and signed the 2025 budget, the first of his second term.
Why it matters: The personnel changes and spending plan point in one direction: continuity. Leaders want to maintain the course on major military and social spending, with incremental initiatives in the energy, mining and export industries.
What happens next: The plans put Algeria on a path that is sustainable in the short term but with a substantial risk of fiscal troubles in the medium to long term.
Argentina: Milei Estranges Veep, Increases Political Isolation
What happened: President Javier Milei publicly said that Vice President Victoria Villarruel has “no influence whatsoever” in the government and that she belongs to the political “caste.”
Why it matters: According to public opinion polls, Milei and Villarruel are Argentina’s most popular politicians, and the tension between them is negative for investors.
What happens next: Villarruel will not escalate the conflict immediately because Milei’s economic program is succeeding. She will save her guns for later in the term, likely in a moment of presidential weakness.
Australia: Government Tables FMiA Bill in Parliament
What happened: On 26 November, the federal government finally introduced one of its key legislative instruments to give effect to its Future Made in Australia (FMiA) plan. Under the bill tabled in Parliament, FMiA will pay developers $1.30 for each kilogram of green hydrogen produced – opening the door to billions in subsidies.
Why it matters: The Albanese administration has framed the FMiA as a game-changer. The bill is one of its key initiatives to transform Australia into a renewable energy superpower.
What happens next: The Coalition opposes the FMiA bill, with opposition leader Peter Dutton labeling it “billions for billionaires.” The ruling Labor Party has the numbers in the lower house, but it will need the support of the Greens plus three independents to pass FMiA in the Senate.
India: Modi to Inaugurate Largest Green Hydrogen Hub in Andhra Pradesh
What happened: On 29 November, in the Anakapalli district of Andhra Pradesh, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will lay the foundation stone for what is being billed as India’s largest green hydrogen production hub. The implementer is state-owned NTPC Green Energy, and the project will span 1,600 acres once completed.
Why it matters: The southern coastal state is run by Chief Minister Chandrababu Nadu, whose Telugu Desam Party (TDP) is one of the ruling BJP’s top coalition partners. The TDP’s main bastion is in Andhra Pradesh, and this will be the first time that Modi has visited the state since forming his coalition government last summer.
What happens next: This project will have legs because of its political importance for Modi. The only possible obstacle could be extreme weather, as the hub will be constructed in a coastal area near the Bay of Bengal that is vulnerable to cyclones.
Libya: Fuel Smuggling in the Spotlight… Again
What happened: On 20 November, Libya’s attorney general, Audit Bureau head, NOC chairman and Central Bank governor met to discuss fuel smuggling.
Why it matters: Fuel smuggling is a pervasive problem in Libya, and our contacts say it has mushroomed in recent years despite domestic and UN efforts. The fuel subsidies regime is inadvertently driving the issue.
What happens next: Despite pledges by the Government of National Unity, the subsidies regime will likely remain in place. The resulting economic pressures could challenge the Central Bank’s new governor and board.
Mexico: Energy Watchdogs No More
What happened: Mexico’s Chamber of Deputies approved a bill dismantling seven independent regulators, including the energy sector’s CNH and CRE, integrating them into the Energy Ministry.
Why it matters: The reform centralizes regulatory authority, raising concerns over transparency, investor confidence and market fairness while potentially impacting Mexico’s standing in the 2026 USMCA review.
What happens next: The bill advances to the Senate, requiring one more vote for approval. Once passed, lawmakers have 90 days to align legislation with the reform.
South Korea: Ulsan, Guangzhou Partnerships Underscore Hyundai’s Global Hydrogen Plans
What happened: Hyundai has recently intensified its efforts to build a global hydrogen ecosystem, securing partnerships with Ulsan City in South Korea and Guangzhou in China.
Why it matters: Hyundai’s commitment to hydrogen stands out as competitors like Mercedes-Benz and Honda scale back on hydrogen-powered vehicles. The partnerships with Ulsan and Guangzhou further position the company to lead in the emerging hydrogen economy.
What happens next: Hyundai’s collaboration with Ulsan signals strong local government support, which could be extended to private-sector partnerships. Key players like Hyundai, Korea Gas Corporation and SK Group are driving efforts in hydrogen and CCS, bolstered by government incentives.
Uraguay: Orsi Wins Runoff, Brings FA Back to Power
What happened: The opposition leftist Frente Amplio coalition won Uruguay’s runoff presidential elections and returned to power after five years of center-right government led by outgoing President Luis Lacalle Pou.
Why it matters: Orsi will have to balance the demands of his coalition with his commitment to maintain an investor-friendly business environment and show that dialogue and “civilized” politics can also deliver on inflation and crime.
What happens next: The next president takes office on 1 March 2025. Unlike in previous FA governments, his coalition will only have a majority in the Senate and will have to seek agreements with other parties in the Lower House, for instance, on plans to strengthen renewable energy policies.
Stakeholder Influence Tracker
Rising Influence: Nigerian President Bola Ahmed Tinubu
Mele Kolo Kyari’s Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Ltd (NNPC) restarted production from one of the two refineries in the Port Harcourt complex. The refinery is running at around 60% capacity and is processing 60,000bpd crude.
The restart follows a more than three-year upgrade project, which missed several deadlines and is said to have cost more than the $1.5bn that Muhammadu Buhari’s government initially planned.
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has faced frequent criticism over these delays. Labor unions even made the refinery restart a condition in their negotiations with the government.
In our view, the news marks a win for Tinubu, as it will likely ease labor relations. We believe the restart, coupled with the far more substantial output from Aliko Dangote’s 650,000bpd refinery in Lagos State, could also help cut Nigeria’s dependence on product imports.
However, given the troubled history of the plant, we are cautious about its return to production. Many in Nigeria are also skeptical about the refinery’s ability to produce large volumes of products.
Declining Influence: Angola’s Joao Baptista Borges
Luanda citizens are blaming Energy and Water Minister Joao Baptista Borges for possible water supply shortages in the province.
Recent heavy rainfall in Luanda is overloading water treatment plants. Given that Borges has led the ministry since 2012, many argue he should have implemented measures to prevent such shortages.
In our view, water shortages will severely damage the MPLA’s already weak electoral support in the province. As a result, Borges will likely face substantial pressure from senior party leaders to resolve citizens’ concerns.
Find Out More
These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive products – if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.
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