Welcome to this week’s On Our Radar, our summary of developments from the past week that will have a significant impact on emerging markets, and, crucially, exactly why they are relevant to foreign investors.
These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive services – if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.
Country Insights Roundup
Argentina: Is Milei Ready To Lift the Cepo Capital Controls?
What happened: After the lowest monthly inflation index in three years, President Milei hinted at lifting capital controls in early 2025.
Why it matters: The “cepo” capital controls are the main stumbling block for many eager foreign investors, especially in the natural resources sector.
What happens next: Economy Minister Luis Caputo and his team are less willing to speed up the FX market liberalization process and are setting a high bar of conditions before moving forward.
India: Indian Railways to Begin Trials for Green Hydrogen-Fueled Trains
What happened: This week, an official with Indian Railways (IR) said that the state-owned rail service will begin trials in December for green hydrogen-fueled trains. The trials will take place on a 55-mile route from New Delhi to neighboring Haryana state.
Why it matters: IR is one of India’s biggest state-owned companies and a major employer. But it has also fallen on hard times, with major financial troubles that have led to large job cuts and poor performance. In our view, the announcement is likely an attempt to bolster IR’s reputation by linking the rail service to clean energy goals.
What happens next: Investors should be skeptical about this announcement. For now, it is more of a PR ploy than an indication of a sustained and scaleable policy — reminiscent of when the government inaugurated a fleet of city buses in New Delhi outfitted with green hydrogen, with no follow-through.
Greece: Samaras’s Ouster Puts Mitsotakis on Notice
What happened: PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis expelled his predecessor, Antonis Samaras, from the ruling party over comments critical of the administration. The unprecedented move comes after weeks of Samaras goading the PM.
What happens next: The fallout will intensify pressure on the Mitsotakis administration, spelling a possible course correction for the energy sector.
Namibia: Disinformation on the Rise as Elections Approach
What happened: Opposition leader Panduleni Itula and his IPC, the main challengers to Swapo’s dominance, face a disinformation campaign at this election.
Why it matters: The campaign targets Itula’s British ties, alleging UK government funding amid growing calls from young voters for the government to secure majority stakes in extractive industry projects at the expense of often Western companies.
What happens next: The claims may resonate among older voters mindful of Namibia’s colonial history and younger voters, whose enthusiasm for resource nationalism fuels skepticism toward politicians with Western connections.
Nigeria: Aiyedatiwa Wins Landslide Victory in Ondo Poll
What happened:Gov. Lucky Aiyedatiwa won a landslide victory in off-cycle polls in Ondo State.
Why it matters: Aiyedatiwa’s victory, which gives him his first full mandate, consolidates the APC’s control of its second oil-producing state three months after recent elections in Edo.
What happens next: APC grandees are already making plans to flip the South West’s two remaining opposition states, Osun and Oyo.
South Africa: Mashatile Is Frontrunner in Early ANC Succession Race
What happened: Deputy President Paul Mashatile is the frontrunner to succeed term-limited President Cyril Ramaphosa in 2027 despite facing an investigation for corruption in Gauteng.
Why it matters: The ANC succession race is critical to energy investors’ long-term strategies. The winner will set the party’s direction ahead of the 2029 national election and determine future coalition partners.
What happens next: The 2027 politicking will ramp up ahead of the ANC’s national general council meeting in mid-2025, where Mashatile and other candidates will test their support.
Turkey: Erdogan Defends Against Alleged Trade Ties with Israel
What happened: Turkey’s facilitation of the flow of Azerbaijani oil to Israel through the BTC pipeline has persisted despite political and public criticism.
Why it matters: Allegations of covert Turkish-Israeli trade, including arms and oil, have intensified scrutiny of Turkey’s foreign policy contradictions. Open-source investigative journalism has implicated key stakeholders.
What happens next: Investors face heightened risks in sectors tied to strategic resources, with potential reputational and operational repercussions influenced by public opinion and international relations.
Yemen: Future of New ROYG Party Bloc in Aden In Doubt
What happened: ROYG-aligned parties met in Aden to form a body ostensibly aimed at uniting anti-Houthi factions to restore the Yemeni state and resume normal political life.
Why it matters: The body’s formation responds to international pressure to create an “inclusive” framework for Yemen’s expected post-war political process once the Saudi-Houthi negotiated roadmap is fulfilled.
What happens next: Although some have touted it as a potential breakthrough in the deadlock that has long paralyzed the ROYG, a boycott by the Southern Transitional Council will severely hamper the organization’s mission and abilities.
Stakeholder Influence Tracker
Rising Influence: Colombia’s Andres Camacho
Minister of Mines and Energy Andres Camacho announced the resumption of electricity exports to Ecuador, following efforts to meet domestic demand.
The decision allows thermal plants with firm energy obligations, or those operating without them, to support the neighboring country.
President Gustavo Petro framed the move as a direct response to critics of Colombia’s energy system, emphasizing that the restart of electricity exports demonstrates the system’s resilience despite recent skepticism.
The announcement temporarily eases pressure on both Camacho and Petro, who have faced growing scrutiny over energy policy and Ecopetrol’s strategy.
Increased water reservoir levels provided the necessary margin to restart exports, but concerns about Colombia’s energy security persist amid unpredictable rainfall patterns.
Declining Influence: India’s Gautam Adani
US prosecutors charged Gautam Adani and other Adani Green executives with bribery. According to the indictment, they were part of a scheme that involved providing Indian officials with $250mn in bribes for solar contracts and hiding them from US investors.
This is not the first time Adani has faced fraud allegations. The media has periodically accused him of such activities. And in January 2023, an activist short seller leveled serious allegations against him – allegations he has only recently recovered from.
However, US prosecutors laying out detailed allegations in an unsealed indictment is much more difficult to deny or shrug off. In our view, the latest news marks an instant crisis for Adani and is arguably the biggest blow of his career. Regardless of whether he is guilty of bribery, it will be difficult to recover from this reputational damage.
Find Out More
These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive products – if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.
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