Welcome to this week’s On Our Radar, our summary of ten recent developments that will have a significant impact on energy markets, and, crucially, exactly why they are relevant to energy investors.
These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive services – if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.
Country Insights Roundup
Azerbaijan: Trump’s Election Victory: Implications for Azerbaijan
What happened: President Aliyev’s quick congratulations to Trump reveal Azerbaijan’s eagerness for renewed relations with the US, particularly on strategic energy and security collaboration.
Why it matters: Azerbaijan will likely benefit from Trump’s pragmatic foreign policy, which prioritizes economic and strategic interests over internal governance. This may reduce pressure for democratic reforms while intensifying regional security dynamics.
What happens next: The US will likely increasingly pressure the Azerbaijani government to limit its ties with China and possibly Russia, while Armenia may face greater isolation. Trump’s administration will prioritize US-Azerbaijan energy and trade projects over Armenian concerns.
Cyprus: Nicosia Leaning Toward Accepting New Aphrodite Plan
What happened: The government appears to be acquiescing to Chevron’s newly submitted plan to develop the Aphrodite gas field, following concerted efforts by the US major to prove its commitment to the Cypriot hierarchy.
Why it matters: The government’s decision to issue a notice of breach of contract to the Aphrodite partners in August was a major step that discomforted even Cypriot leaders. While not hugely convinced, President Nikos Christodoulides went along with the move based on recommendations from Energy Ministry technocrats and the government’s consultants and legal advisors.
What happens next: Upcoming discussions on the financial projects that were missing from the initial plan will be key to convincing the Cypriots of the Aphrodite consortia’s intentions. The government remains cautious that the consortia could ask for fiscal concessions or renegotiate the production-sharing contract (PSC).
Greece: Trump 2.0 Will Not Completely Upend Energy Plans
What happened: The impact of Donald Trump’s reelection on the Greek energy sector will be determined partly by the strength of the EU’s commitment to decarbonization.
Why it matters: The GSI could be the canary in the coal mine of Trump 2.0 in the eastern Mediterranean, pitching geopolitics against the administration’s anti-green reflexes.
What happens next: Politically, Trump’s victory has emboldened the right wing of New Democracy, intensifying the internal challenge to PM Mitsotakis.
Kazakhstan: Implications of Trump’s Return: A Mixed Economic and Diplomatic Bag
What happened: Donald Trump was reelected as US president, presenting strategic opportunities and economic challenges for Kazakhstan, especially in energy and foreign relations.
Why it matters: Trump’s pro-energy policies and a strong dollar may strain Kazakhstan’s oil-dependent economy, which could weaken the Kazakh tenge and complicate its trade balance. This could also intensify US-China tensions, pressuring Kazakhstan’s ties with Beijing.
What happens next: The government will need to carefully balance relations with the US, China and Russia, leveraging its strategic partnerships with American energy companies and adopting a neutral stance.
Malaysia: Anwar’s Trump Tightrope: FDI, China and Gaza
What happened: Trump’s reelection will force PM Anwar to engage in a diplomatic dance with an unpredictable partner.
Why it matters: Trump’s China policies will impact Malaysia’s economy, while his isolationism could tip the South China Sea dispute in China’s favor.
What happens next: Malaysia’s ASEAN chairmanship in 2025 and Trump’s handling of Gaza are tripwires for Anwar’s foreign policy tightrope walk.
Mozambique: Protests Erupt Amid Political Tectonic Shift
What happened: A weeklong strike over the October election results was marked by clashes with police and looting, especially in Maputo.
Why it matters: The electoral outcome was a historic Frelimo landslide but also ushers in a new opposition leader and an increasingly active and demanding urban youth.
What happens next: We expect the protest to continue for some time but eventually die down before the new government takes over in January; Cabo Delgado will remain insulated.
Nigeria: Transactional Style, Shared Networks Signal Scope for Trump-Tinubu Ties
What happened: President Tinubu sent cautious congratulations to US President-elect Donald Trump. His tone showed his preparedness to set aside Trump’s previous derogatory comments about Africa.
Why it matters: While Tinubu badly wants US attention and cash, Nigerian relations are not a high priority for Trump. However, we see scope for the two men, both arch-dealmakers who blur political and personal lines, to get along.
What happens next: In a Trump presidency, the reputational risk Tinubu presented in the eyes of the Biden administration fades. Their shared connections to the Lebanese Nigerian business world may make room for private business discussions, a hallmark of both Trump and Tinubu’s style of politics.
Russia: Sechin’s Ambitions Resurface in Mega-Merger Speculation
What happened: Recent media reports that the Kremlin contemplates merging Rosneft, LUKoil and Gazprom Neft reflect Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin’s well-documented ambitions to dominate the Russian oil sector.
Why it matters: Sechin has grown Rosneft through hostile acquisitions and continues to seek its expansion.
What happens next: While Rosneft can take over LUKoil with relative ease, a merger with Gazprom Neft would be more problematic because Gazprom, its parent company, will be pushed closer to bankruptcy.
Turkey: Trump 2.0 Threatens a Return to Erdonomics
What happened: Donald Trump’s return has shifted economic perspectives in Ankara, with Erdogan considering a return to Erdonomics and possibly bringing back his son-in-law in a key economic role.
Why it matters: Moving away from economic orthodoxy under Finance Minister Simsek could destabilize the investment environment and weaken the Turkish lira.
What happens next: A return to low interest rates may attract Trump’s business network, especially in areas like renewable energy, but risks reigniting inflation and undermining Turkey’s recent economic gains.
Yemen: Houthi Threats to Saudi Arabia Aim to Affect US Policy
What happened: The Houthis continue to threaten Saudi Arabia to get its government to pay salaries and lobby for US sanctions waivers in the near term.
Why it matters: The Saudi gamble is that financial handouts can corrupt and mollify Houthi leaders. If this does not work, Houthi hardliners see a battle with the Saudis as inevitable.
What happens next: Most of the Houthi leadership is still firmly focused on strengthening their hand ahead of an eventual major war with the Kingdom.
Stakeholder Influence Tracker
Rising Influence: Iraq’s Izzat Sabir Ismail
Deputy Minister of Oil for Gas and Refining Izzat Sabir Ismail toured the North Gas Company (NGC) in Kirkuk. The first and only oil project in Iraq to maximize associated gas production by-design, the NGC has reached 410 mmscf/d of gas capture. 380 mmscf/d is used for power generation, industry and compression, and 30mmscf/d is used for LPG bottling. By the end of 2025, Khor Mor gas from the Kurdistan Region could potentially be fed into the NGC system via a refurbished pipeline connection at Jambur.
In our view, this would be a major victory for Izzat, as it would help the Iraqis capture more of their own gas and reduce dependence on Iranian supply. This will justify efforts to obtain waivers from the incoming Trump administration for Iraq to purchase Iranian gas and electricity.
Declining Influence: Israel’s Yisrael Katz
Defense Minister Yisrael Katz claimed in a press conference that Israel had defeated Hezbollah. He added that the elimination of its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, was the crowning achievement of the campaign. But in the following days, Hezbollah’s rocket, missile and UAV strikes into Israel became more numerous, wider-ranging and far more deadly.
In our view, Israelis couldn’t help but notice the huge gulf between Katz’s hyperbolic rhetoric and the harsh reality on the ground, on both sides of the border. Not only did he score no points during his first week on his new job, Katz has confirmed for many Israelis that their concerns about his appointment were correct.
Find Out More
These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive products – if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.
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