Welcome to the new On Our Radar format. We’ve changed the newsletter up so now it includes a summary of ten of the week’s developments that will have a significant impact on energy markets, and, crucially, exactly why they are relevant to energy investors.
These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive services – if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.
Country Insights Roundup
Argentina: Milei Replaces Energy Secretary
What happened: Eduardo Rodríguez Chirillo stepped down as energy secretary following tensions with Economy Minister Luis Caputo.
Why it matters: Rodríguez Chirillo was replaced by Maria del Carmen Tettamanti, whose appointment was influenced by former President Mauricio Macri amid a broader push to install more PRO people in the Milei administration.
What happens next: We expect this to streamline decision-making but raises questions about Tettamanti’s autonomy from her bosses and PRO mentors.
Click here
Cote d’Ivoire: Another Credit Rating Upgrade Confirms Strong Investment Outlook
What happened: S&P upgraded Cote d’Ivoire’s credit rating from BB- to BB with a stable outlook.
Why it matters: This was a response to high cocoa prices, strong cocoa harvests, sound financial management and the growth of the oil and gas and mining sectors.
What happens next: The upgrade will boost foreign investment and investor confidence, but the 2025 presidential election could throw a spanner in the works.
Greece: Egypt Interconnector, CCS and Gas Exports Seal East Med Energy Partnership
What happened: Greece and Egypt signed a raft of energy deals that signal a deepening of bilateral relations.
Why it matters: For Athens, Cairo offers an ally in the region to counterbalance Turkish influence.
What happens next: Pursuing energy initiatives with a commercial player like Copelouzos will create a separate momentum, not entirely dependent on the geopolitical balance of power.
Iran: As Economic Future Dims, Consensus on Containment Grows
What happened: The possibility of sanctions relief is entirely dependent on US politics, but neither Trump nor Harris seems to believe in a new deal.
Why it matters: All the tools for tightened containment are in place, and other actors could increasingly join the US.
What happens next: Iran’s “Look East” advocates have the proof they need to undermine Rouhani-era dealmakers and instead fasten Iran firmly to the Russia/North Korea-China “axis of rogues” — a group that offers no economic relief.
Kazakhstan: Government Walks Back BRICS Bid
What happened: The government paused its bid to join BRICS to balance relations between Russia, China and the West.
Why it matters: Kazakhstan’s strong economic ties with China and Russia and its support for the UN-centric global order drove its decision not to commit to BRICS fully.
What happens next: We expect the government to remain engaged with BRICS as a key player in Eurasian diplomacy.
Malaysia: Anwar Plays It Safe With 2024 Budget
What happened: PM Anwar Ibrahim announced long-anticipated cuts to RON95 fuel subsidies in Malaysia’s largest budget yet.
Why it matters: Stronger economic and political outlooks allow a shift to fiscal sustainability, but details reveal a precarious footing.
What happens next: Expect generous, voter-friendly budgets leading up to crucial elections in 2025 and beyond.
Mexico: Sheinbaum Efforts to Reassure Investors
What happened: President Sheinbaum is trying to reassure investors of future legal stability in energy projects that create jobs and protect the environment.
Why it matters: Natural gas is a major problem given declining domestic production, rising US imports, Pemex’s financial woes and USMC review tensions.
What happens next: The upcoming National Energy Plan will help define investment opportunities and align energy policy with economic needs and climate commitments.
Russia: Putin Scores PR Victory at BRICS Summit but Substance is Slim
What happened: An impressive gathering of Global South leaders attended the BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia. However, its substance was visibly slim.
Why it matters: Vladimir Putin scored a public relations victory, but China’s Xi Jinping came across as the top force in the bloc.
What happens next: Progress on a sanctions-proof Russia-China clearance system may be the only practical outcome of the summit for Russia.
Turkey: Ankara Attack May Steer Turkish Foreign Policy
What happened: Four people were killed and 14 injured when two gunmen stormed the Ankara headquarters of TUSAS, one of Turkey’s largest defense contractors.
Why it matters: The attack ends a long period of relative peace, coincides with the looming Israeli attack against Iran and is likely related to recent shifts in Turkey-Russia relations.
What happens next: We believe the government will blame the US as payback for Turkey for seeking to join BRICS, although the actual perpetrators may be Iranian or Russian.
Yemen: As Economic Future Dims, Consensus on Containment Grows
What happened: The Saudi-backed Nation Shield Forces (NSF) deployed to the highway connecting Islah-held Wadi Hadramawt and STC-held southern Shabwah.
Why it matters: The Saudis are strengthening their grip ahead of a prospective Saudi-Houthi peace deal to ensure compliance by Yemeni actors.
What happens next: Deploying the new NSF units across the map aims to undermine Islah at least as much as it aims to threaten the southern coastal belt fiefdoms of the STC or Tareq Saleh.
Stakeholder Influence Tracker
Rising Influence: Angola’s Jose de Lima Massano
President Joao Lourenco named Jose de Lima Massano to lead a commission in drafting a strategy to make use of the US African Growth and Opportunity Act. In our view, this again signals Massano’s importance to Lourenco despite the act facing and uncertain future after it expires in 2025.
Declining Influence: Suriname’s Bronto Somohardjo
Bronto Somohardjo said during a party rally that he quit as Home Affairs Minister to reduce political pressure on President Chan Santokhi. The resignation followed mounting tensions caused by Vice President Ronnie Brunswijk airing allegations of corruption in the Home Affairs ministry. In our view, the PL is in danger. Losing the ministerial post would significantly weaken its political influence. They have little leverage. With only one seat in parliament, leaving the coalition would have minimal impact.
Find Out More
These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Interactive products – if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.
About Horizon Engage
Horizon Engage provides country-level analysis on political, social and environmental issues that impact the investment climate for foreign direct investors. We’re changing the game for our clients by merging tech and geopolitical expertise in a whole new way. Let us be your eyes and ears so you can make decisions with confidence. Learn what we do.
