Hi, I am Caroline Doyle, an associate editor at Horizon Engage. This week, our newsletter covers pre- and post-election dynamics across regions.
🇳🇬 Electioneering for Nigeria’s 2027 presidential election is already underway, three years early.
🇲🇽 Mexican President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum met with the business community for the first time since her victory.
🇩🇿 Algeria’s President Tebboune deals with power and water shortages while he seeks reelection.
This week’s Quote of the Week comes from Azerbaijan as Baku prepares to host COP29 this November. Read more below!
Nigerian Electioneering
Electioneering is already underway for Nigeria’s next presidential election…in 2027. Much like the US, campaigning in Nigeria never seems to stop. Two opposition leaders, People’s Democratic Party Leader Atiku Abubakar and ex-Kaduna State Gov Nasir El-Rufai, visited former President Muhammadu Buhari. El-Rufai was a former ally of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, but being left out of his cabinet seems to be re-aligning his allegiance. He’s not the only one — there have been whispers across parties about challenging Tinubu’s run for reelection.
Party coalitions are also beginning to take shape. Lost votes to the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) in Kano, Nigeria’s most populous state, stung the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) during the last elections. With Tinubu trying to curry favor with the country’s north, there are hints of an APC-NNPP alliance on the horizon. The PDP and the Labor Party may also join up, possibly saving the PDP from the lost votes they saw last year. That said, the elections are three years away; allegiances can and do change quickly.
Mexican Biz Reassurance
Last week, Mexican President-Elect Claudia Sheinbaum held her first meeting with Mexico’s business community since her election victory. Over 500 business leaders attended, many of whom are concerned that the proposed judiciary reform will negatively impact the investment environment. Although the reform is still being finalized, the current plan dismissed a number of Supreme Court justices and federal judges, with new ones to be elected by popular vote in 2025. If it passes, it would effectively overhaul Mexico’s judicial system. Sheinbaum did her best to assure the business community that this would not centralize power within the executive branch, earning a vote of confidence.
Sheinbaum also emphasized her future administration’s commitment to bolstering the economy and encouraging private investment. This includes her National Energy Plan, which allocates $3.2bn for 44 different projects through 2025. However, the plan imposes strict price caps and regulations, which may do the opposite of encouraging investment. There are also concerns about the plan’s feasibility — Sheinbaum must straighten out Pemex first. Her cabinet appointments will be crucial to implementing her proposals.
Algerian Scorcher
Like many across the globe, Algerians feel the effects of the recent heatwave, with some regions reaching around 120 F. It was an unseasonably early heatwave for the country and jump-started wildfire season. As a result — combined with mismanaged resources — Algerians now face water shortages, sparking major protests. Electricity demand is also rising, which Sonelgaz has struggled to keep up with in past summers. Sonelgaz CEO Mourad Adjal has pledged fewer blackouts as the company’s 25,000 MW generation capacity struggles to meet record-breaking demand. To help, Sonelgaz is undertaking a $1.5bn project to link Algeria’s northern and southern grids with new voltage lines. Energy and Mines Minister Mohamed Arkab called it “the project of the century.”
Although the government is feeling the heat from the protests (and literally), the project is not without its political motivations. President Abdelmadjid Tebboune is seeking reelection in just a few short months on 7 September. Linking the grids is crucial to some of his administration’s largest investments. Upgrading the grid will also allow the government to diversify its energy landscape, a necessary prerequisite for exporting green power. Doing well to stem water and electricity shortages in the meantime is likely a priority for Tebboune’s reelection campaign.
Quote of the Week:
As Baku prepares to host COP29 in November, Azerbaijan’s parliament (the Milli Majlis) appealed to hold snap parliamentary elections two months ahead of schedule to avoid conflicting with the summit. The ruling party argued the event requires the full functionality of parliament and wants to prevent logistical complications. The opposition was not so convinced. Mustafa Hajibeyli of the Musavat Party voiced his displeasure:
“If the previous elections were not falsified, if the majority voted for you, why not carry the responsibility entrusted to you until the end?! This argument alone is enough for everyone to vote against the ruling party and candidates supported by the government in the early elections.”
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