My name is Caroline Doyle, and I am an associate editor at Horizon Engage. This week, our newsletter covers the new face emerging (through party defections) in Mozambique’s electoral landscape, President Milei’s struggle against Congressional opposition in Argentina, and Algeria’s upcoming bid round — its first in a decade.
A New Player in Mozambique’s Elections
On 6 June, a month after leaving the Renamo party — Mozambique’s largest opposition party — charismatic politician Venancio Mondlane announced he would run in the presidential and legislative elections with the Democratic Alliance Coalition (CAD). His departure follows a long dispute with the party’s leadership, particularly its leader, Ossufo Momade. Renamo is internally split, with over 100 military veterans announcing their support for Mondlane and demanding Momade’s resignation. This is a blow to the party’s outlook in the October elections, since Mondlane will likely take some Renamo votes with him.
If Mondlane does well, CAD could enter parliament for the very first time. As such, the ruling Frelimo party is probably getting nervous. Though a fractured opposition usually helps their chances, Mondlane could break up their dominance in the parliament, and his political clout will only continue to grow over the coming years. His ability to rally support makes him one to watch — and Frelimo and Renamo will be watching the closest.
Opposition Unites Against Milei
Last week, Argentina’s Chamber of Deputies voted in favor of a pension reform bill that could undermine the Milei administration’s market surplus. President Javier Milei threatened to veto the bill, but a two-thirds majority in both chambers of Congress could override him.
This spells bad news for Milei for several reasons. First, it would be quite an embarrassment if the opposition managed to pass legislation before he does, more than six months into the job with little to show for it. Second, this is the first time the centrist opposition, previously considered “friendly” to Milei, has united with the Peronists against him. Together, these two parties have the majority to override a presidential veto.
Milei’s reaction was unsurprising: He called the opposition “fiscal degenerates,” which will definitely help him get his own legislation passed.
Algeria to Issue First Bid Round in a Decade
For the first time in a decade, Algeria is preparing to issue a new oil and gas licensing round. Energy and Mines Minister Mohamed Arkab has formed a committee to prepare a new bid round from the National Agency for the Development of Hydrocarbon Resources (ALNAFT), Algeria’s upstream regulator.
ALNAFT and Sonatrach have opted to negotiate contracts with international partners directly, which has consolidated the market into the hands of fewer incumbents. To fix this, Sonatrach CEO Rachid Hachichi wrote a new Hydrocarbons Law in 2019 to attract more foreign investment. However, authorities failed to follow through on accompanying licensing rounds. That means this upcoming bid round has a lot riding on it; the officials who lauded the 2019 Hydrocarbons law as a panacea for investors are feeling the pressure.
Quote of the Week:
On 12 June, Nigeria celebrated its 25th Democracy Day. During his speech to the nation, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu addressed the hardships Nigerians face due to his economic reforms: “There is no doubt the reforms have occasioned hardship. Yet, they are necessary repairs required to fix the economy over the long run so that everyone has access to economic opportunity, fair pay and compensation for his endeavor and labor.” “Occasioned” might be a bit of an understatement.
Interested in receiving On Our Radar direct to your inbox? Subscribe below.
About Horizon Engage
Horizon Engage provides country-level analysis on political, social and environmental issues that impact the investment climate for foreign direct investors. We’re changing the game for our clients by merging tech and geopolitical expertise in a whole new way. Let us be your eyes and ears so you can make decisions with confidence. Learn what we do.
