Welcome to this week’s On Our Radar, our summary of developments from the past week that will have a significant impact on emerging markets, and, crucially, exactly why they are relevant to foreign investors.
These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive services – if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.
This week’s banner image is Iraq’s Parliamentary Speaker, Mahmoud Al-Mashadani (attribution under CC3.0), who features in the influence tracker at the bottom of the newsletter.
Country Insights Roundup
Argentina: New York Judge Forces Milei to Negotiating Table in YPF Nationalization Suit
What happened: A New York court ordered the Milei administration to transfer its 51% stake in YPF as a guarantee that it will comply with a $16bn ruling over the company’s nationalization in 2012.
Why it matters: The Milei administration has been dragging its feet on the 2023 ruling due to a lack of management capacity and implicitly trying to gain time.
What happens next: The ruling forces the government to the negotiating table, fearing uncertainty could jeopardize crucial YPF investment plans, like the construction of the VMOS oil pipeline, which breaks a bottleneck of Vaca Muerta development.
Canada: Bumps in the Road Toward a US Trade Deal
What happened: In a dramatic reversal, Canada scrapped its Digital Services Tax after Trump threatened to call off trade talks.
Why it matters: The Americans attributed the about-face to Trump’s super negotiating skills, but the reality is that the Canadians can’t afford not to strike a deal.
What happens next: Trump smells blood in the water; we expect more brinksmanship as the deadline draws closer.
Cote d’Ivoire: Opposition Fails to Gather Momentum
What happened: The African Union Court of Human Rights rejected the appeals of former President Laurent Gbagbo and former PM Guillaume Soro to be reinstated on the Ivorian voter lists.
Why it matters: The ruling leaves few other legal avenues for disqualified major opposition figures to run in the October presidential election.
What happens next: The opposition feels divided and hopeless ahead of the forthcoming poll, paving the way for President Ouattara’s comfortable victory.
China: For Beijing, US Strikes on Iran Are a Geopolitical Juggernaut — but Not a Crisis
What happened: The US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites disrupted China’s oil and gas sourcing strategy in the Middle East.
Why it matters: Beyond energy, the US strikes highlighted Washington’s superior power projection and exposed China’s strategic lag, yet also underscored Beijing’s rare-earth leverage.
What happens next: China will likely diversify energy supplies, accelerate decarbonization efforts and protect its rare-earth dominance as a strategic asset.
Cyprus: GSI Phase 2 Reaches Critical Juncture
What happened: Cyprus and Israel have received the cost-benefit study for their section of the 1 GW Great Sea Interconnector (GSI) project, with an FID expected by the end of July.
Why it matters: The current East Med dynamics following the Israel-Iran conflict have highlighted a growing need to diversify energy supplies. Cyprus and Israel are isolated for different reasons; the GSI would allow them to link to the European electricity network.
What happens next: IPTO is due to submit a complete report to the two regulatory bodies by the end of July with an official request for investment. This would allow Cyprus and Israel to decide on the Cross-Border Cost Allocation sharing mechanism to secure project revenues.
Greece: Athens Blindsided by Libyan Objections to Tender
What happened: Libya has taken further steps to enforce its maritime sovereignty claims in the Eastern Med, directly challenging Greece’s right to license offshore hydrocarbon exploration.
Why it matters: The development came just days after Athens published an international tender for exploration off Crete and a corruption scandal rocked the Mitsotakis administration.
What happens next: The heightened political risk creates a more complex landscape for investors to navigate in Greece over the coming months.
Israel: Post-War Energy Outlook and Scenarios
What happened: SOCAR’s purchase of 10% of Tamar is a positive sign that the energy sector is quickly reawakening.
Why it matters: New diplomatic possibilities between Israel and its northern neighbors, Lebanon and Syria, could boost energy projects on both sides of the border.
What happens next: Israel will be on the lookout for a second SOCAR-type market entrant, perhaps from Europe or India.
Namibia: 100 Days of NNN: Energy Ambitions, Political Drift
What happened: Despite early promising signals, NNN’s first 100 days have brought no legislative action and limited clarity on oil and gas governance.
Why it matters: The Upstream Petroleum Unit remains underdeveloped, with its appointed leaders largely invisible and Petroleum Commissioner Maggy Shino’s role in limbo. Investors await progress on key issues such as the local content law, stabilization clauses and the future of exploration licensing amid a continuing moratorium.
What happens next: Proposals for expanded NAMCOR stakes signal a move toward increased government involvement, potentially dampening private sector confidence.
Turkey: Erdogan-Trump Meeting Vaults Ankara Back into Washington’s Circle of Trust
What happened: Presidents Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Donald Trump met on the sidelines of the NATO summit in The Hague, reopening the highest-level US–Turkey dialogue in nearly a decade.
Why it matters: The new diplomatic channel creates room for renewed cooperation in defense, procurement and energy transit.
What happens next: If Erdogan remains on Trump’s good side, Washington may relax CAATSA measures, welcome Turkey back to the F-35 program and increase US investment in Turkish energy projects.
Yemen: Are the Houthis About to Split Yemen’s National Carrier?
What happened: Houthi-aligned authorities may allow the state-owned Yemenia Airways to be split into Houthi- and ROYG-aligned entities.
Why it matters: This could be part of a wider deal with the ROYG that would see the Houthis also receive two planes from Oman.
What happens next: Any attempt to restart flights out of Sanaa using a Houthi-controlled entity will likely face significant obstacles, including US sanctions and Israeli airstrikes.
Stakeholder Influence Tracker: Iraq’s Parliamentary Speaker, Mahmoud Al-Mashadani
Mahmoud al-Mashadani met Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara, securing a major new Turkish water release into Iraq’s segment of the Tigris River at the start of summer.
This is a major boost for Mashadani. Erdogan is one of the most powerful external forces in Iraq, especially with Iran’s recent weakening. For a Sunni Islamist leader like Mashadani, being hosted by Erdogan is the gold standard in terms of boosted stature among constituents ahead of Iraq’s November elections.
For Mashadani, this strengthens his chances of regaining the speakership. For investors, it underlines the growing power in Iraq of Turkey, and indeed Qatar, which is the most engaged of the Gulf States by far.
Find Out More
These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive products – if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.
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