Welcome to this week’s On Our Radar, our summary of developments from the past week that will have a significant impact on emerging markets, and, crucially, exactly why they are relevant to foreign investors.
These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive services – if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.
This week’s banner image is of Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotkis (image rights: EU), who announced this week that Greece is ready to join the EU’s “nuclear club”.
Country Insights Roundup
Argentina: Local Players Grab Most Conventional Areas After YPF Divests
What happened: YPF is entering the final stage of a year-long plan to divest from its conventional assets and fully concentrate on Vaca Muerta shale.
Why it matters: The move has left space for new, smaller players to walk into the sector, but so far, most of these newcomers are local.
What happens next: The divestment program will be completed in the coming weeks with the sale of the last 12 of over 60 conventional areas.
Canada: Carney and Trump Set Timeline for Trade and Security Negotiations at G7 Summit
What happened: US President Donald Trump attended the G7 Summit in Canada and agreed to complete negotiations on a US-Canada trade and security agreement within 30 days.
Why it matters: PM Mark Carney is hoping to build on early positive interactions with Trump to reach a deal that placates the Canadian industries affected by tariffs.
What happens next: Though Carney’s approach and aggressive defense spending will help fuel negotiations, the 30-day timeline will be tough to meet, though the US will remain Canada’s primary military partner for the foreseeable future.
Greece: Government Takes Baby Steps Toward Nuclear Power
What happened: PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis announced that Greece is ready to join the EU’s “nuclear club.”
Why it matters: Although the statement appears like a strategic about-face, the PM’s advisors have already been hinting at ways Greece could draw more on the nuclear capabilities of its Balkan neighbors.
Why it matters: Athens is pursuing this in tandem with less politically contentious domestic investments in gas generation to supplement renewables.
India: Economy Exposed to Potential Hormuz Closure, Whatever Puri Says
What happened: After Iran briefly threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, the oil and gas minister mistakenly claimed that most of India’s foreign energy supplies don’t transit through the chokepoint.
Why it matters: Contrary to his assurances, about half of India’s crude oil and LNG imports are via Hormuz, so a potential closure entails significant economic risk.
What happens next: Investors should monitor signs of high-level India-Iran engagements to gauge how much New Delhi conveys its concerns to Iran.
Iraq: Sudani and the Kurdistan Salary Payments
What happened: PM Sudani is delaying Kurdistan’s salary payments to avoid appearing weak ahead of elections, mindful of past political backlash and federal budget pressures.
Why it matters: He cannot risk making more than a couple of minor payments, unleashing much more difficult conditions for Kurdistan residents, Kurdish parties, and oil investors.
What happens next: Sudani may eventually make partial payments to Kurdistan for political advantage, but only one month in three — unless the US can strongly pressure the premier.
Kazakhstan: As Government Expands Upstream Projects with CNOOC, CNPC Faces Legal Hubris
What happened: The Energy Ministry signed a landmark oil exploration agreement with China’s CNOOC and launched three more upstream projects with KMG and QazaqGaz involving both Chinese and local firms.
Why it matters: While the CNOOC deal shows Astana’s ability to attract high-tech capital while retaining control, CNPC’s legal woes prove that Chinese firms still face regulatory limits in Kazakhstan.
What happens next: We expect CNOOC to begin funding risky seismic and drilling operations, QazaqGaz to expand its upstream role with local partners, and Kazakhstan to continue balancing foreign investment with domestic leverage.
Mexico: Pemex Bailout Off the Table — for Now
What happened: President Sheinbaum publicly rejected a Fobaproa-style bailout for Pemex, denying plans to absorb the NOC’s debt into federal accounts despite mounting financial pressure.
Why it matters: The government’s stance underscores a delicate balancing act between political optics and economic reality. Yet unresolved liabilities, stagnant production and growing investor uncertainty continue to erode Mexico’s credibility as a reliable energy partner.
What happens next: Investors should watch the government’s handling of supplier debt this quarter and whether Energy Minister Luz Elena Gonzalez further distances herself from Pemex CEO Victor Rodriguez. These signals could shape future restructuring and governance shifts.
Morocco: Rabat Notches New Diplomatic Wins in Quest for Recognition of Western Sahara Claims
What happened: The UK, Kenya and Ghana publicly endorsed Morocco’s autonomy plan for Western Sahara, marking a new series of diplomatic wins for Rabat.
Why it matters: The momentum behind Morocco’s diplomatic campaign on Western Sahara remains strong, reinforcing its claims over this resource-rich territory.
What happens next: Despite growing international support, meaningful negotiations remain stalled. Engagement from the US remains the key to unblocking Western Sahara’s thorny political and legal status quo.
Nigeria: Opposition Coalition Registers New Party, Faces Leadership Struggles
What happened: Leading opposition figures, including Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) leader Atiku Abubakar and Social Democratic Party (SDP) member Nasir El-Rufai, applied to Nigeria’s electoral authority to register a new party, the All Democratic Alliance (ADA), to run against President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in the 2027 elections.
Why it matters: The advent of the ADA could reshape Nigeria’s opposition, possibly signaling the end of the PDP and — with northern heavy hitters in charge — increasing the chances of a 2027 north-south vote split.
What happens next: The key players to watch are Labor Party leader Peter Obi and New Nigeria People’s Party leader Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso. Both men could be game changers for the new opposition force, which faces serious political hurdles and is already struggling with tensions around its leadership.
Suriname: Industry Worried About Rushing Standalone Ministry, Local Content Plans
What happened: A new standalone ministry and local content regulations dominated the conversations at SEOGS.
Why it matters: While the two moves make sense in theory, they seem more political than strategic in practice; sidelining Staatsolie could cause investor headaches later on.
What happens next: The local content plans will move forward more decisively than the new ministry, partly to avoid picking a fight with the NOC.
Stakeholder Influence Tracker: Argentina’s Deregulation Minister Federico Sturzenegger
Cabinet Chief Guillermo Francos led the first session of the May Council created by Javier Milei in mid-2024 to craft legislative reform proposals. In a sign of his goals, Milei tapped Deregulation Minister Federico Sturzenegger for a key role.
In our view, this signals that Sturzenegger will lead a reform drive likely planned for after the October midterm elections that will focus on tax, pension and labor reforms, all of which are thorny issues.
It’s a boost for Sturzenegger, who has been out of the limelight for several months.
Find Out More
These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive products – if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.
About Horizon Engage
Horizon Engage provides country-level analysis on political, social and environmental issues that impact the investment climate for foreign direct investors. We’re changing the game for our clients by merging tech and geopolitical expertise in a whole new way. Let us be your eyes and ears so you can make decisions with confidence. Learn what we do.
