Welcome to this week’s On Our Radar, our summary of developments from the past week that will have a significant impact on emerging markets, and, crucially, exactly why they are relevant to foreign investors.
These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive services – if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.
This week’s banner image (taken by Luis Macedo and used under CC 4.0) is of the president of Brazil’s lower house, Hugo Motta, who features in our stakeholder influence tracker at the bottom of the newsletter.
Country Insights Roundup
Australia: Geelong H2 Refueling Station Could Boost FMIA
What happened: In a rare positive development in the new energy sector, Australia’s first hydrogen refuelling station has opened in Geelong, Victoria.
Why it matters: The green hydrogen sector has seen nothing but bad news over the last 12 months. Many pilot projects funded by large global and Australian firms have thrown in the towel before meeting any of their forecast production targets.
What happens next: Since being reelected, the Albanese administration has had little to say about its headline Future Made in Australia plan, which includes a $1.30/kg tax credit scheme. With this positive development, we may see further progress from the government in the hydrogen space.
Canada: More Defense Spending May Open Opportunities in Dual-Use Infrastructure
What happened: PM Carney has pledged to increase defense spending to 2% of GDP in less than a year.
Why it matters: Canada needs to spend more on defense to strike a trade deal with the US, but procurement will be a huge roadblock.
What happens next: Carney’s focus on securing the North may open opportunities for investors in dual-use infrastructure for mining and energy.
China: Trump Won’t Beat Xi at China’s Export Control Game with Ethane
What happened: Vessels chartered to ship American ethane to China are stranded near the Gulf Coast due to a new export licensing requirement.
Why it matters: While the policy aims to increase US trade leverage over China, Beijing is well-positioned to dodge any serious petrochemical sector disruptions.
What happens next: China will likely shift toward alternative feedstocks, neutralizing the US strong-arming and creating opportunities for non-US suppliers.
Cote d’Ivoire: Opposition Wakes Up, But Ouattara Still Favored to Win Fourth Term
What happened: The opposition PDCI and the ruling RHDP parties held mass rallies in Abidjan, attracting thousands of supporters.
Why it matters: The opposition’s growing mobilization capacity is unlikely to force the government or the electoral commission to make any concessions ahead of the polls.
What happens next: Both sides will continue to hold mass rallies over the months ahead, causing some disruption to businesses and freedom of movement but not posing serious threats to operations.
Greece: East Med Diplomacy Efforts Falter After Monastery Dispute with Egypt
What happened: An Egyptian court ruled that the grounds of a Greek Orthodox monastery in Mt Sinai are property of the Egyptian state.
Why it matters: This surprised Athens, which recently cemented economic deals with Cairo. The dispute highlights the fragility of Greece’s efforts to counter Turkish influence in the eastern Mediterranean. Its efforts to secure ties in Libya also appear to be unraveling.
What happens next: The Greek government will unlikely allow the rift to derail its diplomatic efforts. However, a prolonged dispute could divert attention from major energy projects now reaching a critical investment stage.
Guyana: Suriname May Delay Progress on Ali’s Regional Connectivity Push
What happened: The government is pushing for more regional connectivity with Brazil and Suriname.
Why it matters: This would open opportunities for investment in energy, infrastructure, manufacturing and agriculture.
What happens next: Further cooperation is more doable with Brazil than with Suriname, whose new government will take a harder line on the border dispute with Guyana.
Kazakhstan: China-Central Asia Summit Advances Trade, Energy, Nuclear Strategy
What happened: At the China–Central Asia Summit, Kazakhstan positioned itself as China’s key partner in regional trade and energy but also confirmed that Russia’s Rosatom will build its first nuclear plant.
Why it matters: Astana is deepening ties with both Beijing and Moscow in logistics and nuclear energy, sidelining Western firms from major projects to invite them into support roles.
What happens next: We expect a second nuclear plant led by China’s CNNC to be confirmed by autumn; Kazakhstan will continue balancing both powers as it expands its infrastructure and energy agenda.
Mexico: Sheinbaum’s G7 Play
What happened: President Sheinbaum attended the G7 Summit in Canada, where a planned meeting with Trump was canceled, but she used the visit to reset ties with Canada.
Why it matters: The trip signaled a break from AMLO-era isolationism, reopening strategic channels with Canada that could reduce trade uncertainty and attract Canadian investment in Mexico’s energy infrastructure.
What happens next: Key signposts to watch include efforts to schedule a trilateral meeting with Trump and Carney and the conclusion of a quota-based agreement on steel and aluminum tariffs between Mexico and the US.
Mozambique: Government Working on Local Content Bill for Petroleum Sector
What happened: The government launched public consultations on amendments to the petroleum and mines laws and a local content law applicable to oil and gas.
Why this matters: The local content bill comes as President Chapo seeks to temper social grievances from the fallout of the post-electoral civil unrest and brings Edson Macuacua back under the spotlight.
What happens next: The government may create safeguards to avoid more red tape for energy investors.
Nigeria: Shettima Shut Out as APC Big Men Seek 2027 VP Ticket
What happened: A meeting of APC bigwigs in the North East sharpened the focus on the relationship between President Tinubu and Vice President Shettima, who has been sidelined since they took office.
Why it matters: Talk that Shettima may not secure the vice presidential ticket in 2027 is mounting. The second-in-command role is especially significant because of Tinubu’s age and health concerns.
What happens next: Backroom talks over Tinubu’s 2027 running mate will become increasingly clear via public meetings. Tensions will escalate between frontrunners, including FM Yusuf Maitama Tuggar, NSA Nuhu Ribadu and APC boss Abdullahi Umar Ganduje.
Stakeholder Influence Tracker: Brazil’s Lower House President, Hugo Motta
In a show of open opposition, an overwhelming majority in the Chamber of Deputies voted to suspend the presidential decree (PDL 314) that would implement Finance Minister Fernando Haddad’s financial transaction tax hike.
Lower house president Hugo Motta declared that after two and half years, Congress would no longer rubber stamp the administration’s fiscal policy and demanded that Haddad go back to the drawing board.
Moments after the vote, Motta explained the administration had no other option but to admit defeat, adding that Haddad’s fiscal stability plan was too reliant on tax increases.
Motta believes Haddad and Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva must offer spending cuts and limit tax increases to secure a congressional majority. He suggested that the administration needs to be more ambitious with structural reforms that achieve fiscal stability and improve the business climate.
Amid the administration’s defeat, Motta is taking on a greater role in negotiating through the impasse with his colleagues, ramping up pressure to retain their favorite spending programs.
This will boost his political stature, even as it increases the consequences of failing to deliver a compromise bill.
Find Out More
These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive products – if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.
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