Welcome to this week’s On Our Radar, our summary of developments from the past week that will have a significant impact on emerging markets, and, crucially, exactly why they are relevant to foreign investors.
These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive services – if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.
This week’s banner image (accreditation under CC 4.0) is of Former Argentina President and main leader of the opposition, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, who saw the Argentinian Supreme Court confirm her six-year prison sentence and lifetime ban from public office.
Country Insights Roundup
Argentina: Supreme Court Sends Kirchner to Jail, Bans Her for Life
What happened: The Supreme Court rejected an appeal filed by former President Cristina Kirchner in a corruption case and confirmed a six-year prison sentence and a lifetime ban from public office against her. She will have to serve house arrest.
Why it matters: Kirchner is the main leader of the opposition and wanted to run for a provincial congressional seat in the October midterm elections.
What happens next: We believe the ruling decision will unite the Peronists but also help President Javier Milei claim that he is fighting a “corrupt political caste.”
Cyprus: Outspoken Energy Minister Set to Resign
What happened: Energy Minister George Papanastasiou is set to step down this summer, just over two years since taking office. While he has been privately threatening to resign over the last six months, Papanastasiou recently confided to his inner circle that he plans to jump ship before President Nikos Christodoulides pushes him out in September.
Why it matters: The minister has been outspoken since Day One, often reminding anyone who would listen that he has extensive industry experience. But his portfolio is brimming with unfinished projects.
The timing of his departure, during the summer lull in Cyprus, aims to cause the president as much inconvenience as possible. Christodoulides may have a successor in mind, whom he may well be grooming to take the role from September, when he plans to reshuffle his cabinet.
What happens next: Papanastasiou likely anticipated further delays and concluded he would have been unable to effect change in numerous ongoing energy projects. Indeed, he was probably expecting the president to throw him under the bus for failing to deliver them.
Greece: Athens Signals State Support for More Gas-Fired Power Plants
What happened: The Energy Ministry welcomed the announcement of a new gas-fired power plant while mulling a state support scheme for the sector.
Why it matters: Although gas is being phased out of the power sector, the government still sees it as essential for staving off blackouts.
What happens next: Amid high energy prices, we expect the Mitsotakis administration to face pressure over the rationale for taxpayer-funded subsidies.
India: What Changes in India-Canada Ties Under Carney Mean for Investors in India
What happened: PM Modi will attend the upcoming G7 summit in Alberta, where energy security will be on the agenda.
Why it matters: His visit could help boost a tense India-Canada relationship and open up more opportunities for Canadian investment in India’s energy sector, especially renewables.
What happens next: While bilateral ties could improve, an outright reset is unlikely due to serious differences over security issues.
Iraq: Basra Politics Reveal Early Challenges to Eidani’s PM Aspirations
What happened: Prime ministerial hopeful and Basra Gov. Asaad al-Eidani faces mounting opposition from some pro-Iranian factions and local Basrawi critics.
Why it matters: Basra is important in the elections given its population, resources and the heated competition for its 25 parliament seats.
What happens next: Coordinated political attacks and summer protests will make him less viable domestically; the US will also signal that he has the active opposition of Washington DC.
Japan: INPEX Gets Closer to First Domestic Blue Hydrogen Project
What happened: INPEX began commissioning work for Japan’s first “blue” hydrogen and ammonia pilot project. With backing from the NEDO and JOGMEC, the project is expected to produce around 700 metric tons of blue hydrogen annually by this fall.
Why it matters: The project will establish Japan’s first 100% domestic blue hydrogen and ammonia supply chain. It will use natural gas from INPEX’s Minami-Nagaoka Gas Field — one of the largest gas fields in a country with very few native energy resources — as feedstock to produce hydrogen. Most of that hydrogen will be fed into power plants in Niigata prefecture, while a portion will be synthesized into ammonia and distributed as fuel to consumers, also in Niigata.
What happens next: INPEX expects the project to start producing hydrogen and ammonia by this fall. As the Ishiba administration and prefectural governments implement multiple streams of subsidies, the demand for these fuels will rise in the coming years, giving INPEX’s project more demand certainty.
Kazakhstan: President’s Shakeups Target Transit and Security
What happened: President Tokayev dismissed the defense and transport ministers and appointed a new Almaty mayor to improve governance and security.
Why it matters: The changes signal his impatience with security weaknesses and underperformance and push for faster transit improvements to sell the country to Western investors.
What happens next: Tokayev wants the new transport minister to deliver on Middle Corridor logistics and the new mayor to turn Almaty into a dynamic business hub free of the Nazarbayev clan’s influence.
Mexico: CNE Framework Raises Risks for Investors
What happened: The National Energy Commission formally began operations, replacing the Energy Regulatory Commission and consolidating regulatory authority within the Energy Ministry.
Why it matters: This marks a shift toward a more centralized and discretionary regulatory model that favors state-owned companies, limits transparency and raises the political risk for private investors.
What happens next: While the government has pledged 6.4 GW of new private generation, only strategic projects with government backing — typically in joint ventures with the CFE — are likely to advance, making early political alignment essential for companies.
Turkey: Anatolian-Caspian Energy Framework Gets Massive Upgrade
What happened: Energy Minister Bayraktar and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev held a game-changing meeting at the Baku Energy Week.
Why it matters: Bayraktar and Aliyev announced a major deal involving TPAO, SOCAR and BP.
What happens next: The upgraded version of the Turkey-Azerbaijan alliance will soon dominate the regional energy for the coming decade.
United States: Foreign Tax Debate Reveals Who’s Winning In the GOP
What happened: The Senate is considering including a “revenge tax” in its reconciliation bill that could levy additional taxes on companies from certain foreign countries.
Why it matters: The levy could have major implications for the profits of foreign investors in the US; it could also become a negotiating tool for the US, particularly when dealing with Europeans.
What happens next: We believe the Senate will ultimately ditch the provision, and the House won’t fight to get it back in.
Stakeholder Influence Tracker: Dangote Group Chairman, Aliko Dangote
Dangote Group Chairman Aliko Dangote said he will soon announce plans for more changes to Nigeria’s downstream industry that underline his growing profile.
The successful 2024 commissioning of Dangote’s refinery in Lagos State has already transformed Nigeria’s energy market. It reduced reliance on imported fuel and let Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s government end fuel subsidies, which cost billions of dollars.
Dangote said he had told Tinubu during the president’s recent visit to the refinery that it was just the beginning of his plans in the downstream. He claimed that the refinery would be only a small part of his company’s downstream presence in five years.
In our view, the most likely expansion will be pipelines to distribute refinery output and a nationwide network of Dangote gas stations. But that could further complicate the sometimes tense relationship between Dangote and downstream regulator, NMDPRA CEO Farouk Ahmed.
One factor is that the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation already sells Dangote-produced fuel in its network of gas stations.
Find Out More
These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive products – if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.
About Horizon Engage
Horizon Engage provides country-level analysis on political, social and environmental issues that impact the investment climate for foreign direct investors. We’re changing the game for our clients by merging tech and geopolitical expertise in a whole new way. Let us be your eyes and ears so you can make decisions with confidence. Learn what we do.
