Welcome to this week’s On Our Radar, our summary of developments from the past week that will have a significant impact on emerging markets, and, crucially, exactly why they are relevant to foreign investors.
These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive services – if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.
This week’s banner image is of Jennifer Geerlings-Simons, who features in our Stakeholder Influence Tracker at the bottom of the newsletter.
Country Insights Roundup
What happened: IBAMA authorized Petrobras to conduct an emergency response simulation for Block 59 in the Foz do Amazonas Basin.
Why it matters: IBAMA President Rodrigo Agostinho managed expectations, noting that the authorization does not guarantee an exploratory license.
What happens next: Senate President Davi Alcolumbre is hedging his bet on Block 59, having whipped a large majority in favor of a bill that weakens IBAMA’s licensing authority over “strategic” energy projects.
Canada: Carney’s Canada Is Open for Business
What happened: The much-awaited Speech From the Throne previewed the next policy steps for Carney’s government.
Why it matters: Among other plans, the government announced a new Major Federal Project Office to reduce project approval time from five to two years.
What happens next: The infrastructure wishlists submitted by provincial premiers will be the first major test for the expedited approvals.
Cote d’Ivoire: Amid Coup Fake News, Military Remains Loyal to Ouattara
What happened: Rumors of a coup on social media were quickly debunked and traced to a Bukirnabe man known to spread fake news.
Why it matters: Although the military is loyal to the president, this is a test of Burkina Faso’s resolve to destabilize Côte d’Ivoire and discredit Ouattara and the RHDP before the October election.
What happens next: Burkinabe meddling may cause problems, but the president will likely be reelected.
India: Karnataka Government Warns of Green Hydrogen Challenges
What happened: This weekend, the Karnataka state government disclosed significant difficulties with its green hydrogen production plans. Senior officials admitted that concerns about high costs, insufficient revenue and a lack of employment possibilities have constrained progress. Consequently, the government is refusing to approve a five-year Karnataka Green Hydrogen Policy.
Why it matters: While India’s federal government wants to see green hydrogen plans across the country progress amid its plans to become a global leader in the fuel, it benefits politically from Karnataka’s travails. The state has been ahead of the curve, receiving interest from green hydrogen investors as far back as 2022 — a year before New Delhi came out with its National Green Hydrogen Mission. Critically, Karnataka’s government is led by the Indian National Congress, the main rival of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
What happens next: Investors should track this development closely, as it will indicate the trajectory of the politics surrounding India’s green hydrogen development. So far, New Delhi has largely taken a hands-off position toward its rivals’ efforts to pursue their own green hydrogen projects, whether in Karnataka,
Greece: Mitsotakis Administration Cornered at Home Over Israel Ties
What happened: Opposition parties are pressuring the government to take a tougher stance toward Israel in light of the latest Gaza offensive.
Why it matters: The PM’s growing coziness with Netanyahu is becoming a source of political risk for the administration.
What happens next: The government’s handling of the bilateral relationship through this challenging period will be critical to the outcome of major energy projects in the region.
Malaysia: Petronas & Petros Agree to Agree, For Now
What happened: Putrajaya and Kuching issued a joint declaration affirming a cooperative framework under federal and state gas distribution laws.
Why it matters: It formalizes peace in the Petronas-Petros saga, but a lack of clarity could reignite hostilities.
What happens next: More details will be announced soon as all parties race for a definitive agreement before a court hearing in June takes the matter out of their hands.
South Africa: SANPC Leadership Is Business as Usual
What happened: The SANPC was launched to become an integrated energy company operating across the sector.
Why it matters: SANPC will be a critical partner for energy investors as it looks to boost downstream refining capacity, play a more active role in gas developments and maximize opportunities that align with state interests in exploration and production.
What happens next: Although the firm is operational, the SANPC Bill still needs to be tabled and passed in parliament for the company to be a standalone entity.
Suriname: 2025 Election: Santokhi’s Coalition Loses Majority Amid NDP Comeback
What happened: The preliminary results of the 2025 general elections put Suriname’s political dynamics into uncharted territory. With almost all the votes counted but the final tally from the Central Election Bureau still pending, the NDP won 18 of the 51 seats up for grabs in the National Assembly. President Chan Santokhi’s VHP came in second with 17 after losing three seats compared to its 2020 performance.
Why it matters: In our view, the historically close result highlights the deep fragmentation in Suriname’s parliamentary landscape. Voter turnout was lower than expected. It only reached 65% compared to 74% five years ago, when the elections were held amid COVID-19 restrictions. This reflects growing political disillusionment and fatigue, although the two major parties could still mobilize strong bases.
What happens next: The current VHP–ABOP partnership has been reduced to just 23 seats, well below the 26-seat majority needed to form a government, let alone pick the president. The NDP faces a similar conundrum with its natural coalition partners. The most likely path forward to form a government and elect a president is a six-party “Anyone But the VHP” bloc led by the NDP. In that scenario, Jennifer Geerlings-Simons would be the presidential frontrunner.
Turkey: Ankara Lights Up Post-War Syria’s Energy Sector
What happened: Interim Syrian leader Ahmad al-Sharaa met President Erdogan in Istanbul, marking Syria’s first major post-war energy partnership.
Why it matters: The deal gives Turkey a strategic foothold beyond energy while leveraging Syria’s reconstruction to maximize regional influence.
What happens next: We expect state-backed and Erdogan-linked energy firms to enjoy first-mover advantage by dominating early tenders.
United States: US-EU Slide Toward Semi-Decoupling Amid Trade War
What happened: US President Donald Trump threatened 50% tariffs against the EU before delaying them as the two sides continue to negotiate a trade deal.
Why it matters: Trump’s threats preview a new and far more hostile relationship between America and Europe.
What happens next: Brussels is taking steps to shield itself from US influence, which could trigger US retaliation and accelerate decoupling.
Stakeholder Influence Tracker: Jennifer Geerlings-Simons, Chairwoman of Suriname’s National Democratic Party
Jennifer Geerlings-Simons declared that six parties (NDP, NPS, ABOP, PL, BEP, and A20) have signed a coalition agreement and will start talks on forming a new government. Geerlings-Simons stressed that the coalition is committed to rebuilding trust in governance and improving the lives of all Surinamese.
While Simons emphasized that discussions were not yet about ministerial posts, Gregory Rusland announced that his NPS had been offered the vice presidency – a slot he will likely aim to fill.
The six parties have a total of 34 seats, eight more than the 26 needed for a majority. Chan Santokhi’s VHP won 17 seats and will be the only opposition party. Only five parties were initially expected to join the coalition, but ABOP joined at the last minute, strengthening the alliance and isolating the VHP.
In our view, however, the coalition’s size and breadth are its biggest weaknesses. Talks could easily break down over power sharing, with ABOP being one possible friction point.
Geerlings-Simons will be pushing for quick consensus to maintain momentum and reinforce her rhetoric about rebuilding trust in governance.
Find Out More
These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive products – if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.
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