Welcome to this week’s On Our Radar, our summary of developments from the past week that will have a significant impact on emerging markets, and, crucially, exactly why they are relevant to foreign investors.
These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive services – if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.
This week’s banner image (attribution under CC 3.0) is of the headquarters of Sonelgaz, whose CEO Mourad Adjal features in our Stakeholder Influence tracker at the bottom of the article.
Country Insights Roundup
Canada: Smith Weaponizes Alberta Separatism to Gain Oil and Gas Concessions
What happened: Alberta Premier Danielle Smith announced that she would not stand in the way of an independence referendum in 2026 if there is enough public support.
Why it matters: Alberta has long been at loggerheads with Ottawa over federal exploitation of the province’s fossil fuel revenues and other grievances related to the industry.
What happens next: Although the plebiscite is unlikely to pass, we expect Smith to use it as leverage to get Ottawa to make concessions favorable to Alberta’s lucrative oil and gas sector.
Cyprus: Time Running Out for Energy Minister
What happened: Despite efforts to revive the long-stalled LNG import project, progress made on Cyprus-Israel cross-border gas deals and progress made on pushing ahead with much-needed energy storage infrastructure, Energy Minister George Papanastasiou’s days appear numbered.
Why it matters: President Nikos Christodoulides and Papanastasiou have clashed almost since Day One, with the minister’s appointment itself a point of contention. Papanastasiou was forced on the president by his coalition partner, the Democratic Party (Diko); the relationship has been strained since the beginning.
What happens next: Christodoulides initially estimated that Cyprus would be able to import LNG by the start of next year. However, that looks unrealistic, as there has been no movement on the onshore import terminal since the Greek-Chinese consortium CMC exited the project nearly 12 months ago.
India: Lal Pitches Green Hydrogen Leadership at BRICS Energy Summit
What happened: On 19 May, Brazil hosted a meeting of the BRICS energy ministers. The Indian delegation — headed by Power, Housing and Urban Affairs Minister Manohar Lal — used the gathering to highlight the country’s leadership in green hydrogen.
Why it matters: BRICS offers a global platform for India to pitch Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s National Green Hydrogen Mission and India’s efforts to diversify its sources of clean fuels, including green hydrogen.
What happens next: Investors should watch to see if green hydrogen becomes a formal pillar for energy cooperation among BRICS members. If it does, this could give India a long-term audience and forum to showcase its efforts on green hydrogen.
Indonesia: What Prabowo’s Cabinet Feet-Dragging Signals to Investors
What happened: President Prabowo says he will not reshuffle his cabinet in the near term despite months of speculation and political lobbying within his expansive coalition.
Why it matters: This postponement has raised questions about the direction of the government‘s policy agenda as economic and geopolitical uncertainties mount.
What Next: Delaying the cabinet reshuffle will undermine confidence among investors who want the president to appoint more technocrats to his cabinet.
Iraq: KRG Government Formation to be Completed in June
What happened: The KDP-PUK government formation teams held their 11th meeting. Masrour Barzani received strong US support during his Washington, DC trip.
Why it matters: The Kurds want to get the new cabinet seated before they must focus on Iraq’s federal elections, and in time to showcase unity to an increasingly pro-Kurdish Trump administration.
What happens next: The KDP and PUK look set to form the cabinet in the next 3-4 weeks.
Mexico: Sheinbaum, Johnson and the New US Line
What happened: President Sheinbaum welcomed Ron Johnson as the new US ambassador to Mexico.
Why it matters: Johnson’s appointment signals a strategic shift, with security emerging as the primary axis of bilateral pressure under Trump.
What happens next: We expect Johnson’s tenure to test the limits of cooperation, as the US intensifies demands while Sheinbaum seeks to preserve sovereignty and political stability.
Nigeria: Federation-Friendly Optics Mask Tinubu’s Tightening Grip
What happened: President Tinubu is working to show he is a leader for all Nigerians with his recent trips, attire choices and reinvigoration of Buhari-era projects, including oil.
Why it matters: These moves come as Abuja tightens its control over tax collection and as the government implements a Nigeria First procurement policy that politically exposed people could abuse.
What happens next: Investors should look beyond Tinubu’s surface signaling. Careful due diligence of joint venture partners and contract beneficiaries is increasingly important in the second half of his first term.
Vietnam: PetroVietnam, Gazprom Strengthen Symbiotic Gas Relationship
What happened: PetroVietnam’s deputy CEO led a delegation to discuss energy cooperation with senior Gazprom executives.
Why it matters: Future joint ventures could have big implications for Vietnam’s oil and gas industry.
What happens next: Ongoing Western sanctions on Russia and Gazprom could delay or disrupt joint projects in Vietnam and Russia.
United States: Moody’s Downgrade Could — but Probably Won’t — Shape Reconciliation Debate
What happened: Moody’s downgraded America’s credit rating due to ever-growing deficits, which the pending bill to extend Trump’s 2017 tax cuts would expand.
Why it matters: House Republicans are deeply divided between members who want to cut more spending to reduce the deficit impact of reconciliation and those unwilling to touch social services.
What happens next: While the downgrade could help the fiscal hawks, the GOP’s easiest path forward is to use deficit spending to avoid unpopular cuts.
Yemen: New ROYG Premier Signals at Saudi Support, Potential Shift at CBY-Aden
What happened: In response to large-scale protests in Aden, new PM Salim Bin Burayk went to Riyadh seeking foreign assistance to ensure salary payments.
What happened: Saudi Arabia will use funding negotiations to shore up its position after some recent setbacks for Saudi-backed officials in Yemen.
What happens next: Bin Burayk may want the removal of the Central Bank governor with Saudi approval.
Stakeholder Influence Tracker: Sonelgaz CEO Mourad Adjal
Sonelgaz CEO Mourad Adjal gathered the company’s top national and regional managers for an annual review. He highlighted the addition of 105,000 new clients to the power grid and 360,000 to the gas grid, achieving 99% and 70% penetration respectively. Adjal also urged Sonelgaz staff to combat vandalism and theft, which cost the company an estimated $130mn in losses last year.
The review comes as Sonelgaz is increasing generation capacity from 26GW to 27GW. In our view, this should enable Adjal to stay comfortably ahead of this summer’s projected 21.5GW of peak demand, leaving spare capacity for lucrative power exports to Tunisia.
Overall, we see Adjal’s record as a positive one that should bolster his case for keeping the top job into 2026. We expect he will be focused on Sonelgaz’s most ambitious project, an ongoing $3bn effort to link the country’s northern and southern grids, which will facilitate growth of renewables.
Find Out More
These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive products – if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.
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