Welcome to this week’s On Our Radar, our summary of developments from the past week that will have a significant impact on emerging markets, and, crucially, exactly why they are relevant to foreign investors.
These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive services – if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.
This week’s banner image is of Suriname’s President Chan Santokhi, who features in our influence tracker at the bottom of the newsletter.
Country Insights Roundup
Argentina: Milei Makes Progress As Peronists Crushed in Provincial Elections
What happened: Four northern provinces held local elections on 11 May, the opening salvo of a long electoral year crucial for President Javier Milei’s hopes of consolidating his political standing.
Why it matters: While incumbent provincial governors emerged victorious, Milei’s La Libertad Avanza party showed it is the only national force gaining ground.
What happens next: The next signpost to watch is the Buenos Aires mayoral election on 18 May, which is symbolic because the capital city is controlled by Milei’s main congressional backer, former President Mauricio Macri.
Canada: Ministers to Watch in Carney’s First Cabinet
What happened: Mark Carney unveiled his new cabinet a week after winning the premiership.
Why it matters: The PM intends to rely on a small group of senior ministers to deliver on his agenda of boosting investment, diversifying trade and achieving energy independence from America.
What happens next: Carney’s pipeline plans will need buy-in from the provinces and First Nations, which may be less complicated thanks to Trump.
Greece: Athens Juggles East Med Energy Relations Under GSI Cloud
What happened: A potential upcoming bilateral agreement on a Cyprus-Israel interconnector linked to Europe has intensified rumors that the GSI project could fall by the wayside.
Why it matters: More positive noises emerged from an Athens summit with Egypt, which married a proposed Greece-Egypt cable with an LNG export deal.
What happens next: The political sensitivity around the GSI project will (further) intensify as domestic critics view it as emblematic of the Mitsotakis administration’s cautious stance toward Turkey.
India: Hydrogen Industry Body Warns Government of Missing 2030 Demand Targets
What happened: On 8 May, the India Hydrogen Alliance (IHA) — a consortium of Indian and global companies embracing green hydrogen — released an assessment warning that New Delhi is in danger of not meeting its 2030 targets for domestic green hydrogen demand.
Why it matters: This is not a good look for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, especially because the assessment was made public (the IHA held a press conference with journalists). It’s one of several recent cases where industry experts have warned that India is lagging behind on meeting its green hydrogen targets.
What happens next: Investors should watch to see if New Delhi heeds the IHA’s advice. If the government adopts such a mandate, it would be worth monitoring whether or not it actually compels industry consumers to ramp up their use of green hydrogen. This would partly depend on enforcement mechanisms.
Indonesia: Prabowo Ditches Singapore Fuel Imports to Avoid Trump’s Tariffs
What happened: Indonesia will curb fuel imports from Singapore, its primary supplier, and buy more from the United States and the Middle East.
Why it matters: The realignment in Indonesia’s energy procurement policy signals the Prabowo administration’s intent to recalibrate trade relationships and boost energy sovereignty.
What happens next: Given the infrastructure constraints, lack of institutional capacity and limited budget support, a six-month window is too ambitious.
Liberia: Speaker Crisis Will Impact the Oil & Gas Sector
What happened: A months-long crisis in the House of Representatives, with two men claiming to be the speaker, has split the lower house into two blocs.
Why it matters: The legislative impasse has stalled major government functions, impacting Liberia’s emerging oil and gas sector.
What happens next: We expect the crisis to linger as neither side appears unwilling to give in, potentially slowing down the entire country.
Mozambique: Oil Refining Dreams Open Doors to Nigerian Investment
What happened: Petromoc and Nigeria’s Aiteo signed an MoU to develop an oil refinery in Mozambique.
Why it matters: This project will help diversify the economy and boost energy security, but it faces considerable hurdles. The MoU signals strengthening ties between Mozambique and Nigerian businesses, which are eyeing stakes in oil and gas projects.
What happens next: Nigerian businesses are well-positioned to secure more stakes in oil and gas exploration; Petromoc Chair Helder Chambisse and Minister in the Presidency for Civil House Affairs Ricardo Sengo have ties to Nigeria’s corporate world.
Namibia: Acting MD Inherits Tough Task at Namcor
What happened: Namcor will play a larger role in Namibia’s oil sector through increased equity participation under the NNN administration.
Why it matters: Despite this strategic importance, the NOC has yet to appoint a permanent Managing Director and faces the lingering effects of past governance crises and financial instability.
What happens next: Institutional weakness could undermine investor confidence in Namcor’s long-term stability.
South Africa: Regulator Takes Stand on Future Gas Development
What happened: Nersa released a report with a roadmap for increased gas development toward 2050.
Why it matters: The regulator no longer opposes gas market developments and supports the industry over environmental objections.
What happens next: Although Nersa’s intervention is arguably outside of its mandate, the report will put more pressure on the government to accelerate action to avoid the “gas cliff.”
United States: Trump’s China Trade Climbdown May Signal Shift in Emphasis
What happened: President Donald Trump agreed to drop tariffs on China to 30% for 90 days.
Why it matters: This decision came despite China offering little in return — it was a climbdown rather than a deal.
What happens next: This is more likely the beginning of the end of Trump’s trade wars than a time-out before another escalation.
Stakeholder Influence Tracker: Staatsolie CEO Annand Jagesar and Suriname President Chan Santokhi
Staatsolie CEO Annand Jagesar announced that the company has secured a $1.6bn loan from a consortium of 18 local, regional, and international banks. Staatsolie will use the loan to fully fund its 20% stake in the GranMorgu offshore project in Block 58 and clear an existing $130mn debt.
The financing means Staatsolie will not have to look for any equity partners to fund its share of development costs. Instead, the company will use a combination of the loan, its reserves, operating income, and the $515.8mn raised from a March 2025 bond issue.
In our view, the loan will give President Chan Santokhi and his VHP a clear boost ahead of the 25 May elections. Jagesar will also see his prestige and status confirmed.
The loan highlights Staatsolie’s financial strength and credibility, which will be a point of pride in Suriname. And avoiding having to look for other partners, such as Chinese state firms, is also a big win domestically.
Find Out More
These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive products – if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.
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