Welcome to this week’s On Our Radar, our summary of developments from the past week that will have a significant impact on emerging markets, and, crucially, exactly why they are relevant to foreign investors.
These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive services – if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.
This week’s banner image is of former Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida (Attribution under CC 4.0), who features in the Stakeholder Influence Tracker at the bottom of the page.
Country Insights Roundup
Argentina: Milei Kicks Off Privatization of Energy Sector Assets
What happened: The Senate rejected a bill that would have excluded former President Cristina Kirchner from running for national office due to her corruption cases.
Why it matters: It signals that President Javier Milei did not want to go all the way against Kirchner because he wants to run against her in 2027.
What happens next: The bill is unlikely to resurface in Congress anytime soon, but Kirchner still faces possible jail time as she waits for the Supreme Court to rule on her final appeals.
Azerbaijan: Baku’s Dual Track: Hosting Iran and Israel
What happened: Iranian President Pezeshkian and Israeli PM Netanyahu are visiting Baku within weeks of each other, highlighting Azerbaijan’s rising role as a regional mediator and energy hub.
Why it matters: Dual engagement with Iran and Israel allows the government to hedge its bets from all sides amid regional instability and enhance its strategic leverage in energy transit, green exports and diplomatic backchanneling.
What happens next: We expect the government to selectively deepen infrastructure, gas swaps and defense ties while balancing against the risk of entanglement in broader Iran-Israel tensions.
Cyprus: President Coy Following Israel Visit
What happened: President Nikos Christodoulides remained relatively tight-lipped following his 4 May visit to Israel. This was in stark contrast to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who revealed talks about joint energy projects.
Why it matters: Cyprus has enjoyed Israel’s strategic support in recent years, yet kept its neighbor at arm’s length despite often talking a good game and never failing to attend trilateral meetings with Greece and Egypt.
What happens next: Netanyahu’s office said that both a deal on IMEC and Aphrodite would be signed before the turn of the year. While Israel is keen to end its energy isolation by linking its electricity grid to Cyprus, regional interconnectors have been slow to take off.
Greece: Iberian Blackout Causes Jitters in Athens
What happened: Greek policymakers and power operators are trying to draw lessons from last week’s blackout in Spain and Portugal.
Why it matters: With renewables set to take the lion’s share of blame, gas-fired generation, energy storage and interconnectors will likely benefit from the dash for energy security.
What happens next: Although we doubt it will reverse course on renewables, Athens may now resist calls to ditch gas from the mix, while beefing up incentives for investment in grid infrastructure and batteries.
India: Joshi Announces New Certification Process for Green Hydrogen
What happened: Last week, New and Renewable Energy Minister Pralhad Joshi announced that the government launched a green hydrogen certification process. In Joshi’s words, this will ensure “that the hydrogen produced in India truly qualifies as green” and make India’s green hydrogen “globally desirable and export-ready.”
Why it matters: This marks a major milestone for India’s National Green Hydrogen Mission. Having a formal certification process in place is important so investors can be more comfortable committing to the fuel, knowing it meets the proper criteria.
What happens next: Investors should know that because of India’s bureaucracy, efforts like this certification process can sometimes take a long time to get off the ground. Given Modi’s ownership of the mission, there is clear urgency in this case, which suggests it will move along quickly. Any lags would likely negatively impact the perceptions of potential green hydrogen investors.
Iran: US-Iran Dynamics During Trump’s Gulf Visit
What happened: Tehran will shake off its annoyance at Trump’s attempt to rename the Persian Gulf the Arabian Gulf and hold one more round of talks with the US before Trump’s Gulf tour.
Why it matters: Trump will probably not seek to meet a senior Iranian leader on the trip and will instead focus on Gulf relations.
What happens next: The late May talks will begin to tackle tough issues related to uranium enrichment and sanctions relief, with a high likelihood of backsliding and raised US-Iran tensions.
Japan: Long-Term Decarbonized Power Auction Offers Clarity for CCS & Hydrogen
What happened: Last month, METI discussed major reforms to the Long-Term Decarbonized Power Source Auction. With these reforms, policymakers want improved bid participation and investments in high-cost decarbonization technologies starting in the 3rd round of the auction, which will take place in early 2026.
Why it matters: The changes will be consequential for developers and investors in Japan’s emerging CCS and hydrogen sectors. For the first time, CCS retrofits of existing fossil fuel power plants will be able to bid in the auction. CCS was always expected to be part of the auction’s framework, but policymakers hadn’t worked out the cost benchmarks until now. In the April discussions, METI unveiled price caps for CCS-equipped coal based on cost assumptions of transporting CO2 via marine shipping.
What happens next: The third round of the auction is expected to launch in early 2026. Ahead of this, the government will finalize the eligibility criteria for 100% hydrogen/ammonia-fired plants (as opposed to the partial “co-firing”), details on the CCS support scheme, and how power auctions and carbon pricing will be coordinated to avoid overlapping or conflicting incentives.
Kazakhstan: Tokayev’s Balancing Diplomacy is Good News for Western Investors
What happened: Kazakhstan used its first major military parade since 2018 to assert a sovereign national World War II narrative while still committing to participating in Moscow’s Victory Day parade.
Why it matters: By replacing Russian-led memory formats with Kazakh-centered commemorations and subtly rebuking Russian revisionism, Kazakhstan is reinforcing its identity and signaling political maturity.
What happens next: Tokayev’s balancing diplomacy positions Kazakhstan as a mature, non-aligned partner, offering Western investors a more predictable, less risk-exposed environment amid regional turbulence.
Mexico: Opening the Door — But Not Too Wide
What happened: Pemex unveiled new guidelines for Mixed Development Schemes, allowing private participation in upstream projects through public bids and, under certain circumstances, restricted or direct awards.
Why it matters: The move signals a shift toward a centralized, state-led energy model prioritizing political control over market liberalization. While private capital is welcome, the NOC sets the rules and holds the steering wheel.
What comes next: Pemex plans to launch 17 mixed contracts — mostly with local partners — in July and publish the official contract model as it scrambles to reverse declining production and restore investor confidence amid growing operational pressure.
Turkey: Ankara Cheers As ENKA & Siemens Team Up On $1B Iraq Gas Plant
What happened: Turkey’s ENKA and Germany’s Siemens Energy secured a deal to build a gas power plant in Nasiriyah, with completion targeted for 2029.
Why it matters: The project tightens Turkey’s grip on energy corridors from Iraq to the Mediterranean and counters Iranian influence in Iraq’s power sector.
What happens next: We expect Turkey to pursue additional oil and gas pipelines — like Basra to Ceyhan — and Iraq’s $17bn “Development Road” project, while testing regional power-sharing grids that could integrate Syria (if stability allows).
Stakeholder Influence Tracker: Former Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida
Former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida traveled to Indonesia and Malaysia for meetings with Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto and Malaysian PM Anwar Ibrahim. During the talks, Kishida emphasized Japan’s commitment to energy transition and its strategic interest in cultivating ties with the Global South.
In our view, the former prime minister’s latest visit aims to deepen regional cooperation under the Asia Zero Emissions Community (AZEC), a decarbonization initiative Kishida launched during his premiership.
His growing role in energy diplomacy has fueled speculation about a potential return to power, especially given Japan’s wobbly political landscape and Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s majority rule. We expect Kishida is looking to maintain his influence within the ruling LDP, and his political activities will likely be closely monitored domestically.
Find Out More
These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive products – if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.
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