Welcome to this week’s On Our Radar, our summary of developments from the past week that will have a significant impact on emerging markets, and, crucially, exactly why they are relevant to foreign investors.
These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive services – if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.
This week’s banner image (attribution under CC 3.0) is of Cyprus’ President Nikos Christodoulides meeting with Israel’s President Isaac Herzog in 2023. Christodoulides’ upcoming meeting with Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on 4 May is covered in our Country Insights Roundup.
Country Insights Roundup
Argentina: Milei Kicks Off Privatization of Energy Sector Assets
What happened: The Milei administration began a round of privatizations agreed with the IMF, starting with a handful of energy sector assets.
Why it matters: The decision signals a strong commitment to de-scale government intervention in the sector, which grew exponentially over the last two decades of left-leaning Peronist rule.
What happens next: Transener, Argentina’s main high-voltage transmission firm, is the first ENARSA asset for sale. Although the tender terms are open to foreign investors amid the recent lifting of capital controls, local players will have the upper hand.
Brazil: Chambriard Closes Ranks with China
What happened: Petrobras leadership met with Chinese officials in Beijing to promote investment opportunities.
Why it matters: CEO Magda Chambriard was joined by presidential chief of staff Rui Costa to impress upon the Chinese that Brazil is ready to negotiate joint ventures in shipbuilding to advance the NOC’s expansion of crude production and exports.
What happens next: President Lula will follow up with a visit to Beijing in May, pledging to strike a slew of deals in energy and infrastructure.
Canada: Why Carney Will Be Able to Hold Onto Power in the Minority
What happened: Mark Carney’s Liberals won the federal election but fell just short of a majority to form a government.
Why it matters: To avoid going to the polls again, Carney will need support from the separatist Bloc Quebecois or the left-wing NDP.
What happens next: The PM’s first meeting with Trump will signal the trajectory of the US-Canada relationship.
Cote d’Ivoire: Opposition Launches “Enough is Enough” Campaign
What happened: Opposition leader Laurent Gbagbo launched the “Enough is Enough” campaign to mobilize the opposition around the high cost of living and the alleged unfairness of the electoral process around the upcoming polls.
Why it matters: Gbagbo is still a leading figure in Ivorian politics, though the campaign is unlikely to draw large crowds. Gbagbo noted that protests are not planned in the immediate term.
What happens next: The opposition still lacks genuine unity, and a first-round victory for the ruling RHDP looks increasingly plausible. However, with limited outlets for protests and increasing vituperative rhetoric, low-level intercommunal violence is likely over the coming months.
Cyprus: President, Energy Ministry to Tackle Israel Cross-Border Impasse in May
What happened: President Nikos Christodoulides will visit Israel on 4 May. He plans to meet with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who could hold the key to solving the long-standing unitization impasse blocking the development of the Aphrodite gas field.
Why it matters: With a portion (believed to be around 10-15%) of Aphrodite abutting the maritime border with Israel, reaching an agreement is crucial for Cyprus to develop the gas field.
What happens next: Aphrodite/Ishai will top the agenda when Christodoulides meets Netanyahu. A team from the Cypriot Energy Ministry is set to visit Israel later in May to discuss terms outlined by the Israelis in September 2024.
India: What the Looming Clash With Pakistan Means for Investors in India
What happened: Relations with Pakistan are in crisis mode following last week’s terrorist attack in India-administered Kashmir.
Why it matters: This is the most serious bilateral crisis since 2019; investors should recognize that there is a serious conflict risk in the immediate term.
What happens next: Any Pakistani response to an Indian strike is unlikely to target foreign assets, so physical security risks for investors are low.
Morocco: US Backs Morocco on Western Sahara, Raising Odds of New Diplomatic Push
What happened: The Trump administration officially endorsed Morocco’s 2007 autonomy plan as the sole basis for resolving the Western Sahara conflict, doubling down on a previous policy shift and prompting renewed UN engagement.
Why it matters: This move sidelines alternative solutions, pressures the Polisario Front and Algeria and increases the likelihood that negotiations will resume soon.
What happens next: With US support, the UN will push to restart talks, but a resolution to the conflict will likely remain elusive; the possible end of the UN mission in Western Sahara also raises the risk of unintended escalation.
Namibia: Fast Start Turns Into False Start for NNN
What happened: Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries, Water and Land Reform Mac Hengari was sacked following rape accusations after just one month in office.
Why it matters: Hengari’s sacking spells early troubles for NNN’s administration, raising questions about judgment and vetting processes. A growing perception of poor planning and hasty decision-making is starting to erode the initial optimism around the administration’s eagerness to deliver swift reforms.
What happens next: Investors and other stakeholders may brace for heightened uncertainty as governance missteps cast doubt over the administration’s stability and strategic direction.
Nigeria: Palm Wine and Sinking Ships: Why Delta Defections Matter for Energy Investors
What happened: Opposition Gov. Sheriff Oborevwori defected to the ruling APC from the PDP, along with former governor and 2023 vice presidential candidate Ifeanyi Okowa.
Why it matters: The decline of the PDP and the APC’s appropriation of Niger Delta states has security and stakeholder stability implications for energy investors.
What happens next: Oborevwori’s defection ends the PDP’s near three-decade reign in Delta, Nigeria’s second biggest oil-producing state and a keystone for the party. It signals the effective collapse of the main opposition party. Bayelsa’s Douye Diri is the last governor in the four big oil states loyal to the PDP; the APC is working double time to convert him to their cause.
Suriname: VHP Holds Polling Lead as Santokhi Slams Door on NPS/NDP Alliances
What happened: President Santokhi ruled out forming a coalition with either the NPS or the NDP.
Why it matters: His intransigence will prevent the NPS from playing kingmaker, which was the emerging consensus from the recent polling.
What happens next: The post-election landscape will be fragmented, unpredictable and heavily dependent on the performance of smaller parties.
Stakeholder Influence Tracker: Akwa Ibom Governor Umo Bassey Eno
Akwa Ibom Governor Umo Bassey Eno hinted that he may defect from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the All Progressives Congress (APC). He said the people of Nigeria’s top oil-producing state are concerned about results, not party politics. Eno also compared the PDP to a faulty plane incapable of taking Akwa Ibom to its destination.
His comments come on the heels of Delta Gov Sheriff Oborevwori’s defection from the PDP to the APC.
We think a defection from Eno is possible: He is likely facing electoral pressure from Senate President and hometown heavyweight Godswill Akpabio, who has the ability to frustrate the governor’s second-term ambitions.
Find Out More
These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive products – if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.
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