Welcome to this week’s On Our Radar, our summary of developments from the past week that will have a significant impact on emerging markets, and, crucially, exactly why they are relevant to foreign investors.
These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive services – if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.
This week’s banner image is of former Indonesian President Joko Widodo, who features in our influence tracker at the bottom of the newsletter.
Country Insights Roundup
Argentina: Post-IMF Deal Confidence Tempts Milei into a New Round of Short-Term Gains
What happened: A week after lifting most of the capital controls, the peso has strengthened against all predictions.
Why it matters: The government moved to attract financial investors seeking short-term gains so that the peso appreciation would continue and help keep inflation under control until the October midterms.
What happens next: The influx of hot money affects Argentina’s cost competitiveness in the short term and poses a medium-term risk that could jeopardize the Milei administration’s pledge to fully lift the capital controls.
China: US Sanctions Create Friction, Not Fracture for China-Iran Oil Trade
What happened: The Trump administration’s secondary sanctions against two Chinese teapot refiners mark an escalation in US efforts to curb Iran’s oil exports.
Why it matters: While the new sanctions compound existing challenges, Chinese teapots already navigate domestic headwinds and know how to operate under duress, so the broader trade is unlikely to collapse.
What happens next: Expect temporary disruptions, freight cost spikes and teapot refiners to get more creative in skirting US sanctions.
Greece: Hype Over Maritime Plan Unlikely to Impact Offshore Realities
What happened: Greek officials are promoting the national Maritime Spatial Plan to legitimize Athens’s claims to an EEZ, which Ankara has dismissed.
Why it matters: The spin is directed at a domestic audience and reflects the pressure on the Mitsotakis administration to demonstrate progress in its foreign policy.
What happens next: The move will likely leave the competing claims unresolved, including in areas earmarked for offshore energy projects.
India: Modi to Sign Green Hydrogen MoU With Saudi Arabia
What happened: Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Saudi Arabia this week. In a recent preview of the trip, Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri said that Modi is expected to sign an MoU focused on green hydrogen. Misri suggested that it would entail Saudi investment in fuel, building on previous commitments from Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to invest $100bn in the Indian energy sector.
Why it matters: Modi is always looking to bolster his National Green Hydrogen Mission, which targets early 2027 for beginning green hydrogen production. Buy-in from a top foreign energy supplier (and top partner overall) will be a big boost, especially a supplier that has been a key source of the fossil fuels that Modi hopes to move away from amid an ambitious energy transition to cleaner fuels.
What happens next: Investors should watch for the MoU’s announcement to get a better sense of what it entails. It could mark a new precedent for how the government intends to secure green hydrogen investment. In the past, it targeted private financiers in India and abroad. However, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman recently made a pitch to Austria to invest in Indian green hydrogen, signalling a shift toward targeting foreign governments.
Libya: Speculation Continues Over NOC Chairmanship
What happened: Speculation is growing regarding a possible NOC leadership change.
Why it matters: Mohammed Ben Shatwan’s recent appointment at Mellitah Oil and Gas may signal that the sector’s balance of power is tipping further toward the Haftar family.
What happens next: These dynamics will likely weigh on GNU head Abdulhamid Dabaiba’s NOC decision.
Nigeria: Delta Disruption Ahead as Tinubu Targets Opposition Governors
What happened: Akwa Ibom Gov. Umo Eno said he will back President Tinubu’s second-term bid for the ruling APC party. The move is unusual, even in ideology-light Nigeria — Eno, like all leaders of Nigeria’s top oil-producing states, is an opposition PDP governor.
Why it matters: Eno’s endorsement is the latest in a series of signals showing Tinubu and his lieutenants are focused on undermining the politics of the Niger Delta with an eye on 2027. These moves risk the delicate security landscape in the South South and herald heightened near-term political turbulence for energy investors.
What happens next: Tinubu wants to flip all four big oil states — Akwa Ibom, Delta, Rivers and Bayelsa — in the 2027 presidential and gubernatorial elections. We expect Delta Gov. Sheriff Oborevwori will be the next to fall, with widespread talk of an imminent defection to the APC.
South Africa: Draft Upstream Regulations Include Onerous Local Content Plans
What happened: DMRE published the draft regulations of the Upstream Petroleum Resources Development Act for public comment.
Why it matters: The draft regulations include numerous and onerous plans and measures for local content that would increase investors’ regulatory burden.
What happens next: Although the Upstream Act was signed into law in October 2024, it is yet to come into effect; the government will likely wait for the regulations to be finalized before implementing the new legislation.
South Korea: Blue Hydrogen and CCS Push Includes LNG
What happened: SK Innovation E&S and Korea Midland Power are investing $1.5bn in a blue hydrogen plant with CCS in South Chungcheong province, while HD Hyundai Oilbank advances its CCS capabilities.
Why it matters: Blue hydrogen offers a cost-effective decarbonization pathway, aligning with South Korea’s net-zero goals and global demand for low-carbon energy.
What happens next: The government will likely expand public-private partnerships and regulatory incentives to scale blue hydrogen and CCS, aiming to capture a share of the Asian hydrogen market by 2030.
Turkey: Government Eyes Two Birds with One Stone in Reviving the Iraq-Turkey Pipeline
What happened: President Erdogan and KRI President Barzani met at ADF2025 and discussed energy projects, focusing on the shutdown of the Iraq-Turkey oil pipeline (ITP).
Why it matters: Turkey and the US need the ITP back online: The shutdown has cost Iraq $400mn monthly and costs Turkey pipeline fees and reduces its access to crude oil imports.
What happens next: If the ITP shutdown is resolved with all parties holding the deal, oil can start flowing within months, reviving Kurdish revenues and Turkish-Iraq infrastructure partnerships.
United States: Under Wright, DoE to Go All In on Energy Abundance, Climate Fatalism
What happened: Chris Wright has made a series of unusual statements for an energy secretary that point to a major change in US energy policy away from renewables.
Why it matters: While the DoE does not directly control energy policy, this could mean a shift away from research into renewables.
What happens next: Under Wright, we believe the DoE will push for accelerated LNG production and exports, more nuclear and less research on solar and wind.
Stakeholder Influence Tracker: Former Indonesian President Joko Widodo
President Prabowo Subianto named a delegation of senior leaders to represent Indonesia at the funeral of Pope Francis including former president Joko Widodo.
The delegation also includes Deputy Minister of Finance Thomas Djiwandono, former Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Ignasius Jonan, and Minister of Human Rights Natalius Pigai. Prabowo is unable to attend the funeral due to prior commitments.
In our view, Jokowi’s presence in the delegations signals that Prabowo continues to trust and rely on the former president.
Find Out More
These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive products – if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.
About Horizon Engage
Horizon Engage provides country-level analysis on political, social and environmental issues that impact the investment climate for foreign direct investors. We’re changing the game for our clients by merging tech and geopolitical expertise in a whole new way. Let us be your eyes and ears so you can make decisions with confidence. Learn what we do.
