Welcome to this week’s On Our Radar, our summary of developments from the past week that will have a significant impact on emerging markets, and, crucially, exactly why they are relevant to foreign investors.
These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive services – if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.
This week’s banner image is of Colombian President Gustavo Petro (attribution, reproduced under CC2.0), who features in our influence tracker at the bottom of the newsletter.
Country Insights Roundup
Algeria: Investor Enthusiasm for Upstream Bid Round Softens
What happened: Signs have been quietly accumulating that investor enthusiasm for ALNAFT’s ongoing bid round has cooled recently.
Why it matters: For ALNAFT and Sonatrach, the first bid round in a decade is a critical hurdle to expanding partnerships, building the upstream investment pipeline and boosting future output. Officials won’t soon abandon it.
What happens next: The initial exuberance may have ebbed, but interest remains. With two months left to bid, the round still presents investors with tangible opportunities.
Cote d’Ivoire: Opposition’s Exit From Electoral Commission is Good News for Investors
What happened: The two main opposition parties ditched the electoral commission over bias toward the ruling RDHP.
Why it matters: While this increases tensions, it is unlikely to trigger electoral reform, postpone the vote or affect the outcome.
What happens next: Major civil unrest remains unlikely at this stage.
Cyprus: GSI Remains on Hold Amid Turkish Threats
What happened: The $2bn Great Sea Interconnector (GSI) project, which aims to connect the electricity grids of Cyprus, Greece and eventually Israel, remains stalled as Turkey continues to prevent surveying vessels from mapping out the route close to the Greek islands of Kasos and Karpathos. Turkish defense officials have threatened to prevent any laying of the cable that encroaches on their maritime sovereignty.
Why it matters: The GSI has received around $900mn in EU funding, but the project has faced numerous delays. Manufacturing of the cable by French contractor Nexans has already begun, with 160 km of the 1,200 km total already complete.
What happens next: While the EU has not formally admonished Turkey for its continuing efforts to prevent progress on the GSI, Christodoulides says that Ankara’s actions have drawn the ire of EU officials, including European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
Guyana: Government Aims to Close Rent-A-Citizen Loophole in Local Content Law
What happened: President Ali praised the benefits of the local content legislation for Guyanese businesses during the Third Local Content Summit.
Why it matters: The administration may tweak the law to crack down on foreign investors exploiting the “rent-a-citizen” loophole to meet the 51% local ownership requirement.
What happens next: While the government recognizes the need to update the law — for instance, to crack down on fronting — we doubt changes will be forthcoming.
India: What Trump’s Tariff Pause Means for Investors
What happened: Trump’s tariff pause is both good and bad news for India.
Why it matters: While it validates Modi’s decision to play nice with the US and gives Indian exporters some breathing room, the stay raises the stakes of negotiating a deal.
What happens next: The two signposts to watch are the trajectory of the US economy and India’s trade talks with third countries.
Indonesia: Legalizing Idle Wells Is a Risky Bet for Bahlil and Prabowo
What happened: The government plans to place thousands of idle oil and gas wells — including illegal ones — under Pertamina’s supervision.
Why it matters: This is a major shift in Indonesia’s approach to illegal drilling, balancing enforcement with empowerment.
What happens next: While the policy aims to enhance energy security and formalize a substantial portion of the informal sector, regulatory uncertainties may undermine investor confidence.
Iraq: PM Sudani’s Evolving Survival Prospects
What happened: Mohammed Shia al-Sudani’s assessed chance of reappointment has recovered from 30% to 50%.
Why it matters: Smart lobbying in Baghdad, London and Washington has boosted Sudani’s efforts to win over critics.
What happens next: Nevertheless, low oil prices, scandals, US-Iran escalation and other potential pitfalls could break Sudani’s tentative momentum.
Japan: CCS Support to Be Tied to Competitive Bidding on Transport, Storage Fees
What happened: The government is moving forward with a new support mechanism for CCS projects. At a recent expert working group under its Strategic Policy Committee, METI proposed a policy framework that introduces competitive bidding focused specifically on the cost of transporting and storing CO2.
Why it matters: Industry players eagerly await more clarity on this CCS subsidy scheme. Japan’s cement, steel, chemicals and energy industries recently told the working group that project costs across the CCS supply chain must be reduced for these hard-to-abate sectors to adopt CCS and reach Japan’s target of capturing and storing 120-240mn tons of CO2 by 2050. This subsidy will determine the fate of those targets.
What happens next: In upcoming meetings, the working group will hammer out other finer details of the support scheme. These will include how to factor future scale-ups of CO2 storage volumes into the initial bid and how to adjust to cost increases due to external shocks.
Mexico: Divisions Within MORENA Stall Reforms
What happened: Internal divisions within MORENA have intensified, stalling some reforms and exposing the first fractures between President Sheinbaum’s disciplined cabinet and a conflict-ridden Congress.
Why it matters: Political rivalries fragment internal cohesion and expose the limits of MORENA’s control over its own ranks.
What happens next: The judicial election will be an immediate test to gauge MORENA’s ability to mobilize and reinforce the legitimacy of the process. With public awareness low and logistical hurdles high, the party will likely deploy a large-scale political operation to showcase control and responsiveness.
United States: Oil and Gas Industry Torn Between Trump’s Policies
What happened: President Donald Trump’s global trade war has lowered oil prices, making the usually pro-Republican energy industry reluctant to drill, baby, drill.
Why it matters: Much of Trump’s policies are happening because Republicans in Congress refuse to confront him; the oil and gas lobby may push them to do so before the 2026 midterms.
What happens next: Although upcoming budget resolutions may test Republican resolve, the president can do little to help oil and gas unless he abandons his trade war, which is unlikely.
Stakeholder Influence Tracker: Colombian President Gustavo Petro
The Alternative Democratic Pole (PDA) – one of Colombia’s biggest left-wing parties – announced that it will merge with President Gustavo Petro’s Pacto Historico.
In our view, this is a significant win for Petro. Despite ongoing governance challenges, the expansion of his political base and the consolidation of leftist support improves his strategic position ahead of the 2026 elections.
We believe the move also signals a renewed push to consolidate the country’s progressive forces. And absorbing one of the country’s biggest leftist parties will give Pacto Historico momentum in its discussion with other progressive, alternative, and left-leaning groups.
Find Out More
These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive products – if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.
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