Welcome to this week’s On Our Radar, our summary of developments from the past week that will have a significant impact on emerging markets, and, crucially, exactly why they are relevant to foreign investors.
These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive services – if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.
This week’s banner image is of Colombian National Planning Department Director, Susana Muhamad, who features in our influence tracker at the bottom of the newsletter.
Country Insights Roundup
Argentina: Senate Kills Milei’s Supreme Court Strategy
What happened: The Senate overwhelmingly voted against two Supreme Court nominees proposed by President Javier Milei to have more clout in the courts.
Why it matters: Milei stuck to his confrontational approach and even appointed the two justices by decree, hoping to persuade the opposition-controlled Senate to agree to their candidacies.
What happens next: The five-seat Supreme Court is struggling to function with only three justices; Milei is unlikely to attempt new nominations until a new Congress is voted in October. Even then, he would have to change tactics and seek agreements.
Brazil: Bolsonaro Flanked With Presidential Hopefuls
What happened: Conservative presidential hopefuls joined former President Jair Bolsonaro at a political rally in Sao Paulo.
Why it matters: Banned from running for public office, Bolsonaro and his political partner, Pastor Silas Malafaia, have staged several rallies calling for the amnesty of those responsible for the 8 January 2023 rioting in Brasilia. This provides a loyalty test for conservative frontrunners Michelle Bolsonaro and Tarcisio Freitas.
What happens next: Bolsonaro hopes to elect an ally in the 2026 presidential election, presumably Michelle or Freitas, who would pardon him.
China/Taiwan: Chinese Drills Feature Simulated Strike on LNG Terminal
What happened: China has completed large-scale exercises around Taiwan – dubbed Strait Thunder 2025A – simulating an air and naval blockade of the island. The drills included a simulated missile strike on the Yongan LNG terminal at Kaohsiung.
Why it matters: Xi Jinping has designated 2027 as the year for the PLA to be ready to move on Taiwan. The exercises are only the latest in many worrying developments concerning Taiwan.
What happens next: We remain skeptical that any Chinese action on Taiwan is imminent. So far, we do not see movement on any other key leading indicators (accelerated stockpiling of key commodities, civil defense drills) that would signal that the PLA is preparing for an invasion.
Cyprus: Trump’s Tariffs Upend President’s US Trip
What happened: President Nikos Christodoulides’ tour of the US in a bid to attract investments was badly timed, coinciding with US President Donald Trump’s blanket tariff announcement on 2 April.
Why it matters: The Cypriot economy is on the mend over a decade after the EU’s forced bailout, which led to a haircut of bank deposits. Christodoulides’ US visit was key to advancing Nicosia’s investment agenda. It also marks a significant ramp-up in bilateral ties after he visited outgoing President Joe Biden before his election loss to Trump.
What happens next: The president also went to Houston, where he visited Chevron and ExxonMobil, both key players in Cyprus’ offshore gas. Nicosia eagerly awaits the results of ExxonMobil’s ongoing Elektra well in Block 5. A large discovery could very well see Cyprus revive plans for an LNG facility, either floating or land-based, to process offshore gas. This has the potential to attract billions of dollars worth of investment.
Ghana: Accra to Buy More Nigerian Gas for Power Production Amid Supply Disruptions in Nigeria
What happened: The government wants to increase Nigerian gas supplies to enhance power security.
Why it matters: President Mahama is taking proactive measures to prevent a recurrence of the dumsor crisis that plagued his first term in office.
What happens next: Accra must establish a clear payment plan to settle its debt with N-Gas and ensure reliable payments to secure a consistent gas supply.
Greece: Regional Formula Sought for Vertical Corridor Amid Tariff Uncertainty
What happened: Market sources warn that the Vertical Corridor infrastructure could provide a back door for Russian gas into Europe.
Why it matters: Geopolitical concerns aside, a flood of cheap Russian gas would undermine the business case for the project.
What happens next: While Athens and the domestic energy interests will continue to press for implementation, mixed signals from Brussels and silence from Washington were already dampening prospects before the market meltdown sparked by Trump’s tariffs.
Guinea Bissau: Confusion Reigns over Elections
What happened: President Embalo finally called a presidential and parliamentary election on 23 November.
Why it matters: The vote should end the ongoing political impasse over the date and encourage investors to pursue new opportunities.
What happens next: A decisive victory by either side is the best way to usher in a better investment climate.
Iran: What To Expect From US-Iran Talks
What happened: Iran weathered some humiliating moments and still remained committed to meeting with Trump’s envoy in Oman.
Why it matters: This indicates confidence that Iran can achieve a good result from talks — if only to de-escalate the military crisis and buy time.
What happens next: We expect this to only postpone a major crisis to the last quarter of 2025; still, there is a slim possibility that Tehran can flip the script by offering both nuclear safeguards and exclusive economic opportunities to the US after sanctions relief.
United States: White House Advisor Moves the Tariff Goalposts to Mar-a-Lago
What happened: Council on Economic Advisors Chairman Steve Miran said he wants “burden-sharing” to keep the US dollar as the global reserve currency.
Why it matters: His speech connects the Trump tariffs to a broader White House narrative of trade abuse by other countries.
What happens next: We assess Miran’s positions as politically unrealistic and signal that tariffs are only one tool in the Trump administration’s protectionist agenda.
Uruguay: ‘Two-Speed’ Society Jeopardizes Orsi’s Reform Agenda
What Happened: The Frente Amplio is showing signs of internal division over Uruguay’s economic and financial outlook amid a surge in bankruptcies.
Why it matters: President Orsi came to power promising to improve income equality, but the country seems to be turning into a “two-speed” society.
What happens next: We believe the government will have no choice but to temper its ambitions at the risk of failing to meet voters’ expectations.
Stakeholder Influence Tracker: Colombia’s National Planning Department Director, Susana Muhamad
Susana Muhamad has rejoined the Gustavo Petro administration as Director of the National Planning Department (DNP), a pivotal role overseeing investment coordination across ministries and regional governments. Her return marks a strategic reinforcement of Petro’s inner circle, following tensions with Armando Benedetti that prompted her resignation in February.
As head of DNP, Muhammad will monitor the implementation of the National Development Plan and act as a bridge between national and local governments, with significant influence over public investment execution in the pre-election year.
Muhamad’s appointment signals political continuity and a renewed push to implement Petro’s ambitious agenda. However, the DNP’s centralization under a close Petro ally may raise concerns over the politicization of project selection.
Find Out More
These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive products – if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.
About Horizon Engage
Horizon Engage provides country-level analysis on political, social and environmental issues that impact the investment climate for foreign direct investors. We’re changing the game for our clients by merging tech and geopolitical expertise in a whole new way. Let us be your eyes and ears so you can make decisions with confidence. Learn what we do.
