Welcome to this week’s On Our Radar, our summary of developments from the past week that will have a significant impact on emerging markets, and, crucially, exactly why they are relevant to foreign investors.
These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive services – if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.
This week’s banner image is of Bangkok Governor Chadchart Sittipunt (attribution under CC 3.0), who features in our influence tracker at the bottom of the newsletter.
Country Insights Roundup
Argentina: Milei Turns Low-Key Buenos Aires City Race Into Crusade Against Macri
What happened: The ruling La Libertad Avanza party announced that presidential spokesman Manuel Adorni, one of its most prominent public figures, will top its list of candidates for a local, usually low-profile election in Buenos Aires on 18 May.
Why it matters: This is a direct, fully-fledged confrontation with former president Mauricio Macri’s PRO party, which has run the city for almost two decades.
What happens next: The campaign will escalate tension between the two like-minded, pro-investment parties, complicate their cooperation in Congress and ultimately benefit the Peronist opposition.
Australia: KEPCO Fails to Make Hydrogen Headstart Cut
What happened: In another blow to Asia’s hopes of securing clean fuel from Australia, KEPCO failed to win support from the federal government’s Hydrogen Headstart program for a large project based in Newcastle, New South Wales.
Why it matters: The Port of Newcastle green hydrogen project proposed by the South Korean utility was one of the largest in Australia. It has a 750MW electrolyzer and plans to deliver 600,000 metric tons of green ammonia annually.
What happens next: After calling the election for 3 May, the government has gone into caretaker mode. This means no more funding decisions can be announced until a new administration is formed.
Greece: Mitsotakis Touts Geopolitical Benefits of New Hydrocarbon Licenses
What happened: The government announced an upcoming tender for hydrocarbon exploration in two additional offshore blocks in the area south of the island of Crete.
Why it matters: The Mitsotakis administration has welcomed multinational interest, claiming that the concessions amount to a de facto recognition of Greece’s EEZ against Turkish territorial claims.
What happens next: The development will strengthen Mitsotakis’s hand against domestic critics of his foreign policy and advance the prospects of other offshore energy projects.
Guyana: US Backs Guyana Amid Venezuelan Moves Near Oil Operations
What happened: Venezuela is doubling down on its attempts to intimidate Guyana over the Essequibo, this time by a warship approaching oil operations.
Why it matters: The government’s diplomatic response was backed by the US, which increasingly views Guyana as a security partner as well as an energy supplier.
What happens next: Strong US support is good news for investors, for whom the doors will remain wide open as the oil and gas sector continues its massive expansion.
Japan: Hydrogen Society on Display at the Osaka Expo
What happened: This year’s World Expo will take place in Osaka from mid-April to October — and it will be powered in part by hydrogen. KEPCO will provide the event with electricity generated from its 13bn yen demonstration gas-fired power plant, which will co-fire hydrogen and gas.
Why it matters: In our view, the demonstration plant signals the company’s – and Japan’s – staunch commitment to establishing a hydrogen supply chain. KEPCO was the first to exit the green hydrogen project in Queensland, Australia, in November 2024. However, the company is still all in on creating what it calls a “hydrogen society” (echoing the Japanese government’s term). KEPCO President Nozomu Mori stressed hydrogen will be central to the company’s full supply chain strategy.
What happens next: Hydrogen’s share at the Himeji power plant will be ramped up to 30% by 2030 and then to 100% by 2050. More government support will be critical for that. KEPCO President Mori is already calling for stronger backing for the entire hydrogen supply chain, saying that the spiraling costs that killed the Queensland project can’t happen again.
Mozambique: Chapo to Renegotiate Large Contracts to Ensure Trickle-Down Benefits
Morocco: Military Spending Rises to Deter Neighbor Algeria
What happened: Morocco is reportedly evaluating the acquisition of the US-made Patriot air defense system, in line with its growing defense budget and rearmament strategy.
Why it matters: The kingdom’s military expansion reflects its strategic focus on countering threats from the Polisario Front in Western Sahara and the risk of a hot war with Algeria.
What happens next: The probability of a direct conflict with Algeria is low overall, but if it were to happen, its impact on the energy sector could be very significant, especially in the Oriental region and Western Sahara.
Mozambique: Chapo to Renegotiate Large Contracts to Ensure Trickle-Down Benefits
What happened: President Chapo reiterated plans to renegotiate contracts of large projects to ensure benefits trickle down to local communities.
Why it matters: The government wants foreign investors to contribute to efforts to address local grievances amid the ongoing civil unrest.
What happens next: Given the president’s track record in dealing with foreign investors, we believe he will prefer to engage those with solid trickle-down plans.
Nigeria: Tinubu Sacks Kyari; Appoints Ojulari as NNPC CEO
Turkey: Erdogan Launches High-Tech Investment Program to Stop Foreign Investor Exodus
What happened: President Erdogan unveiled a $9bn high-tech investment initiative, emphasizing renewable energy, defense and the auto sector with a strong focus on international partnerships over domestic champions.
Why it matters: In our view, this is a political gimmick to counteract economic instability and investor anxiety following the controversial detention of Ekrem Imamoglu.
What happens next: Erdogan aims to project economic progressiveness and restore international confidence; his success will depend on his political trajectory and ability to stabilize the economy.
Vietnam: Hanoi Seeks to Avoid Tariffs by Buying US LNG
What happened: PV Gas signed MoUs with two American IECs to secure long-term LNG supplies from the US, with deliveries potentially starting as early as 2026.
Why it matters: These deals are expected to help Vietnam meet its growing energy demands while bolstering its trade balance with the US, thereby dodging Trump’s tariff bullet.
What happens next: Vietnam will need to develop LNG infrastructure quickly to facilitate the implementation of the deals.
Stakeholder Influence Tracker: Governor of Bangkok, Chadchart Sittipunt
Chadchart Sittipunt has taken a leading role in the rescue operation to locate 72 people still missing after the collapse of a building during the recent earthquake in Bangkok.
Chadchart issued a directive to continue search and rescue efforts at the site, even though the critical 72-hour window – long considered the best period for finding survivors – had passed. He told the press that every effort was worthwhile if even a single life could be saved.
As a structural engineer, the Bangkok governor has also called for a review of the city’s earthquake safety standards, particularly for high-rise buildings. In the wake of the disaster, a clip of Chadchart advocating for such a review last year has gone viral, with netizens criticizing the Bangkok Metropolitan Council for rejecting his proposal as an unnecessary expense.
In our view, Chadchart has handled the crisis effectively, and his response is likely to further strengthen his already high standing.
Find Out More
These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive products – if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.
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