Welcome to this week’s On Our Radar, our summary of developments from the past week that will have a significant impact on emerging markets, and, crucially, exactly why they are relevant to foreign investors.
These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive services – if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.
This week’s banner image is of Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin (attribution under CC 2.0), who features in our influence tracker at the bottom of the newsletter.
Country Insights Roundup
Angola: Government Delegation Visits Dangote to Discuss Investment
What happened: A high-level government delegation visited Nigerian tycoon Aliko Dangote in Lagos to discuss investments in the Lobito Refinery, oil blocks and agriculture. A team from Dangote Industries is expected to return the visit in April.
Why it matters: Dangote can help the government diversify oil export markets and attract investment to boost production and reduce dependence on fuel imports, as he has in his home market of Nigeria.
What happens next: We believe the government is willing to provide whatever is necessary for Dangote’s investment. This could also open the door to more Nigerian interest while boosting the credibility and reputation of Angola’s oil sector.
Argentina: Looming IMF Deal to Push Milei Closer to Forex Regime Changes
What happened: President Milei said that the new agreement with the IMF will be finalized “by mid-April.”
Why it matters: The negotiations are focusing on the forex regime, the most vulnerable aspect of Milei’s anti-inflation policy, as the government continues to appreciate the peso to keep domestic prices down.
What happens next: The agreement’s fine-tuning will test Milei’s character and open a new economic chapter for his administration, in which he will have to deliver on his promise to normalize the forex regime.
Brazil: Andrade to Lead Mines and Energy Committee
What happened: Last week, Federal Deputy Diego Andrade was selected to preside over the Mines and Energy Committee in the Chamber of Deputies.
Why it matters: He is a seasoned lawmaker who will favor mining projects in his home state of Minas Gerais.
What happens next: However, Andrade heads a committee loaded with highly influential deputies, including several from Minas Gerais and former Mines and Energy Minister Fernando Coelho Filho from Pernambuco.
Cote d’Ivoire: Kremlin Seeks Greater Influence Ahead of Presidential Elections
What happened: A visit from the Russian ambassador to Cote d’Ivoire along with a Russian business development company has highlighted Russia’s growing interest in the country.
Why it matters: Moscow is rumored to have offered to sponsor the electoral commission for forthcoming polls, demonstrating its eagerness to expand its influence.
What happens next: Western business dominance and China’s influence in Cote d’Ivoire will limit the Kremlin’s room for maneuver. Russia’s position will turn more favorable, however, if left-wing populists like Guillaume Soro or figures associated with former President Laurent Gbagbo come to office.
Greece: New Deputy Energy Minister Under Fire Over Alleged Turkey Sympathies
What happened: Newly appointed Deputy Energy Minister Nikos Tsafos has been criticized by the opposition and the ruling party over earlier social media posts that diverge from Greece’s official line on Turkey.
Why it matters: While lacking in substance, the political noise around Tsafos could prove a serious distraction at a time when his ministry badly needs continuity and technocratic nous.
What happens next: We believe the government will ultimately ride out the storm over Tsafos, which would be positive for foreign energy investors.
India: First Green Hydrogen Production Facility to be at Gujarat Port
What happened: Kandla Port in Gujarat will reportedly house India’s first green hydrogen production facility. It will use wind and solar power to produce hydrogen for the transportation and manufacturing industries.
Why it matters: Gujarat is Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home state. This amplifies Modi’s desire to be front and center in India’s aggressive push for green hydrogen.
What happens next: So far, we only know that the port is working with key stakeholders to ensure the project’s proper execution. The whole thing seems entirely aspirational. In a different context, investors shouldn’t pay too much attention to it anytime soon. But since this is Gujarat, we actually recommend watching it closely. Modi goes full-bore on any development project in his home state, so we expect this one to be executed — even more so given that green hydrogen is such a top priority for the PM.
Mexico: Sheinbaum Calibrates Response to Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ Tariffs
What happened: Mexico is rushing to avoid sweeping US tariffs set to take effect on 2 April, with Foreign Minister Ebrard and President Sheinbaum leading high-level talks with the Trump administration.
Why it matters: With 80% of its exports tied to the US, Mexico faces the risk of recession or worse if tariffs materialize, also threatening domestic stability and investor confidence.
What happens next: Talks may produce exemptions or a framework for cooperation; if negotiations fail, Mexico is likely to respond with targeted retaliation, investor announcements and diplomacy to project resilience.
Nigeria: Interior Minister Flags Expat Admin Changes, Immigration Crackdown
What happened: Interior Minister Olubunmi Tunji-Ojo said Nigeria will overhaul its expat administration system and start a crackdown on irregular migrants. He will give companies and their staff a three-month grace period from 1 May in which they can — in Nigerian government-speak — regularize their paperwork and align with immigration protocols.
Starting 1 August, the Immigration Service will come down hard on rule breakers, Tunji-Ojo said. The government will launch its new Expatriate Administration System (EAS) on 1 May, though details are scarce for now.
Why it matters: Immigration changes could affect IECs’ ability to bring foreign staff into Nigeria or the speed with which the government issues Combined Expatriate Residence Permit and Aliens Cards (CERPAC). Previous immigration changes have complicated an already onerous process; if President Bola Ahmed Tinubu wants to maintain his pro-business approach, he must ensure that this time is different.
What happens next: We are cautious about this development. Tunji-Ojo has a knack for drafting unfriendly business frameworks, and he was behind the short-lived Expatriate Employment Levy of early 2024.
South Africa: Government Struggles to End Enviromental Challenges to Oil and Gas Sector
What happened: Minister of Mineral and Petroleum Resources Gwede Mantashe and Minister of Electricity and Energy Kgosientsho Ramokgopa are publicly backing the oil and gas sector amid strong environmental pushback.
Why it matters: Support from the two ministers is critical to driving progress, but Mantashe’s department continues to blame delays on environmental NGOs and takes no responsibility for its role in ongoing policy uncertainty and legal issues.
What happens next: We doubt calls for intergovernmental solutions and fast-tracking judicial reviews will end environmental opposition to oil and gas projects and activities.
Turkey: Bayraktar Signs Deals With US Firms, Expands Regional Influence
What happened: During his US visit, Minister Bayraktar secured agreements with Continental Resources and TransAtlantic Petroleum, which have been active in Turkey for over a decade.
Why it matters: This partnership indicates that the government’s regional energy policies are receiving full US support and behind-the-scenes backing from Israel as Turkey fills the vacuum Russia and Iran’s declining influences have created.
What happens next: While we do not expect the agreements to significantly reduce Turkey’s dependence on imports, they do signal growing favor with the US, which may improve the investment environment.
Stakeholder Influence Tracker: Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin
Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin cast the last of five unanimous votes in favor of forcing former President Jair Bolsonaro and several members of his inner circle, including his 2022 running mate Gen. Walter Braga Netto, to stand trial later this year. They are charged with leading a conspiracy to overthrow the constitutional order after the 2022 presidential election.
Bolsonaro’s defense team had previously filed a motion to remove Zanin from the case, citing his past role as President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s criminal defense attorney. However, Zanin’s colleagues on the bench rejected the request.
Despite his vote in favor of a trial and history with Lula, we believe Zanin could actually become Bolsonaro’s best ally on the bench once the trial begins. In our view, he will be meticulous in scrutinizing the investigations by the Federal Police and Attorney General in order to ensure they respected Bolsonaro’s constitutional right to due process.
Find Out More
These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive products – if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.
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