Welcome to this week’s On Our Radar, our summary of developments from the past week that will have a significant impact on emerging markets, and, crucially, exactly why they are relevant to foreign investors.
These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive services – if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.
This week’s banner image is of Namibian President Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah, whose swearing in tomorrow is covered in our Country Insights Roundup. (attribution, reproduced under CC 2.0).
Country Insights Roundup
Algeria: Overdraft Measure Offers Troubling Lessons on State’s Fiscal Health
What happened: The Treasury authorized public administrations to overdraft their accounts to cover monthly salaries — for the third month in a row.
Why it matters: While the country isn’t broke, the measure indicates that the Tebboune administration’s big deficit spending has emptied the state’s primary domestic reserve fund, leaving it with little cushion in case of a shock.
What happens next: Leaders continue to accumulate more domestic debt, deepening the systemic weaknesses in the financial sector that leave Algeria vulnerable.
Argentina: Milei’s “Chainsaw” Forces Private Sector and Provinces into Infrastructure
What happened: The government granted RIGI benefits to an oil pipeline project that is key to expanding the pro-investment program to Vaca Muerta.
Why it matters: The project signals President Milei’s approach to infrastructure, which chainsaws public investment in favor of the private sector.
What happens next: Provincial governments will take the lead and require energy and mining investors to contribute to financing public works crucial to resource development.
Cote d’Ivoire: Local Content Challenges Come as Natural Resource Sector Booms
What happened: Mines, Petroleum and Energy Minister Mamadou Sangafowa Coulibaly highlighted Cote d’Ivoire’s success at the CERAWeek conference, particularly the announcement of expanded or new investments with foreign partners.
Why it matters: The announcement underscores Cote d’Ivoire’s booming natural resource sectors and the government’s emphasis on developing them further.
What happens next: As the sectors develop, focus on local content laws and Ivorian ownership will grow, potentially posing some problems for investors over the coming years.
India: Oilfield Amendment Bill Calls for Supporting Green Hydrogen and CCS
What happened: On 13 March, the Lok Sabha (lower house of parliament) passed the Oilfield (Regulatory and Development) Amendment Bill to boost oil and gas exploration and attract more investment. The bill expresses support for emerging technologies, including green hydrogen and CCS.
Why it matters: In our view, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the ruling BJP party want to advance their goal of ramping up green hydrogen (and renewables more broadly) within India’s oil and gas sector. Part of Modi’s National Green Hydrogen Mission entails major state-owned oil and gas companies focusing on the energy transition.
What happens next: The legislation is essentially a done deal, having now passed both the upper and lower chambers. Getting it finalized by the government should be a mere formality.
Liberia: Implications of NOCAL President’s Suspension
What happened: NOCAL President Rustolyn Suakoko Dennis was suspended over alleged corruption.
Why it matters: While the case has rattled Liberia’s oil and gas sector, it shows how the Boakai administration is trying to restore the NOC’s tarnished reputation to attract major investors.
What happens next: Dennis’s reinstatement is unlikely; her interim replacement will not fill her shoes permanently.
Mexico: Sheinbaum Signs Energy Reform Legislation Into Law
What happened: President Claudia Sheinbaum signed secondary legislation for the energy reform into law, integrating energy sovereignty and justice into the constitutional framework.
Why it matters: This legislation delineates Sheinbaum’s energy model, which prioritizes state dominance while maintaining limited room for redefined private sector participation.
What happens next: The executive must issue regulations within the next 90 to 180 days to clarify key aspects of the reform, and the Hydrocarbons Sector Law Regulations must be issued by 15 September. We expect the implementation process to move quickly.
Morocco: Green H2 Projects in Western Sahara May be Vulnerable to Legal Challenges and Security Threats
What happened: The government approved six green hydrogen projects in Western Sahara under its new “Morocco Offer” investment framework.
Why it matters: The project selections reflect Rabat’s attempt to consolidate its control over the disputed territory as much as its desire to develop renewable energy.
What happens next: Investors will secure land and negotiate project terms, but they may face legal challenges back home and potential demonstrations and sabotage from local activists.
Namibia: All Eyes on Shiimi
What happened: Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah (NNN) will be sworn in as president and unveil her first cabinet on 21 March.
Why it matters: Finance Minister Iipumbu Shiimi’s future role could significantly impact investor confidence and economic stability.
What happened: While NNN is unlikely to sideline Shiimi, he is more likely to take on the less influential post of Prime Minister.
Nigeria: Tinubu Suspends Fubara, Declares Rivers State of Emergency After Pipeline Blasts
What happened: President Tinubu declared a state of emergency in Rivers State and suspended Gov. Fubara after explosions at two pipelines.
Why it matters: The incident showed the persistent vulnerability of crude oil infrastructure despite recent security improvements, threatening the fragile recovery in investor sentiment toward Nigerian energy. For operators in Rivers, Fubara’s suspension will switch up a key point of liaison — Tinubu has appointed a former naval chief as interim administrator.
What happens next: Further attacks on pipelines and installations are possible in the coming days. Energy investors in Rivers should exercise caution, especially in and around Port Harcourt and areas of operation.
Russia: Nord Stream 2: A Pipeline Too Far
What happened: The US and Russia are reportedly negotiating to bring the Nord Stream (NS) pipelines back into operation.
Why it matters: Any type of NS restart, even if it is only one of the four sub-lines, would significantly impact the European gas supply. This would be transformative if the other NS sublines were repaired: together, they could offer the EU an energy supply route amounting to 110 bcma.
What happens next: In our view, bringing online even one non-ruptured NS subline is fraught with regulatory and political difficulty. While “Nord Stream revived” headlines will not disappear, the medium-term prospects of an NS restart are minimal.
Stakeholder Influence Tracker: Saudi Arabian Vice Minister for Mining Affairs, Ministry of Industry and Mineral Resources, Khalid Al Modaifer
Khalid Al Modaifer’s Ministry of Industry and Mineral Resources has announced its first exploration licenses covering mineral belts in Jabal Saed in the Madinah region and Al Hajjar in the Asir region for both local and international companies.
Some of the world’s biggest mining companies are involved, including China’s Zijin Mining, Australia’s Hancock Prospecting, and India’s Vedanta Limited, alongside local firm Ajlan & Bros.
As vice minister for mining, Al Modaifer has been actively driving exploration efforts in these resource-rich areas. Since Riyadh began granting licenses to international firms in 2022, exploration activity has been expanding and is expected to continue growing under Al Modaifer’s leadership.
Al Modaifer will see his prestige increase.
Find Out More
These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive products – if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.
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