Welcome to this week’s On Our Radar, our summary of developments from the past week that will have a significant impact on emerging markets, and, crucially, exactly why they are relevant to foreign investors.
These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive services – if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.
This week’s banner image is of Indian External Affairs Minister Subrajmanyam Jaishankar (attribution, reproduced under CC 2.0), who features in our Stakeholder Influence Tracker at the bottom of the newsletter.
Country Insights Roundup
Argentina: Chubut Fights Mining Resistance, Eyes Uranium
What happened: The large Argentine delegation attending the Toronto PDAC mining show was missing a Chubut representative. This Patagonian province passed restrictive mining legislation over two decades ago.
Why it matters: New Gov. Ignacio Torres wants to follow the lead of other provinces that faced environmental resistance and advance a mining development agenda to turn Chubut into an important player in gold, silver and uranium.
What happens next: Torres and his team will work with local grassroots associations to garner support. Still, given the sensitivity of the issue in the province, he will only go public about his intentions after the October midterm elections.
Brazil: Mendes Eager to Resolve Indigenous Land Demarcation Debacle
What happened: Supreme Court Justice Gilmar Mendes is attempting to resolve the decades-long conflict over demarcating indigenous lands under the 1988 constitution.
Why it matters: Mendes’s efforts offer a constitutional compromise that could lead to greater cooperation between indigenous communities and the agriculture, mining and tourism sectors. However, indigenous leaders and the congressional agribusiness caucus have decried his plans.
What happens next: We expect Mendes and the Supreme Court to proceed cautiously, but they will likely offer a legislative proposal to Congress later this year to push for a final resolution.
Cyprus: President’s Popularity Plummets Ahead of Crunch Turkey Talks
What happened: Recent opinion polls indicate President Nikos Christodoulides’ approval ratings continue dropping. This comes at an inopportune time for Christodoulides, who is due in Geneva on 14-15 March in a bid to reboot talks on resolving the long-standing division of the island.
Why it matters: Christodoulides is coming under mounting pressure. Domestically, his presidency has been calamitous, to say the least, with scandals ranging from hiring an aesthetician at the Presidential Palace to ongoing energy-related fiascos.
What happens next: His time as foreign minister has molded his political path so far, with success as president coming via foreign rather than domestic policy. European leaders hailed Christodoulides’ humanitarian corridor during the conflict in Gaza. The upcoming talks in Geneva will serve as a litmus test and will likely determine whether he has any hope of being re-elected in three years.
Greece: Mitsotakis Faces Lame-Duck Term as Rail Disaster Response Shatters Public Trust
What happened: The Mitsotakis government survived a no-confidence vote regarding its handling of the deadly 2023 Tempe rail crash.
Why it matters: Public discontent over the handling of the accident has weakened New Democracy and boosted protest parties, heralding a period of political instability.
What happens next: Shockwaves from the crash will continue rocking the ruling party amid increasing regional tensions, spelling likely disruption for energy investors.
India: Uttar Pradesh Government Puruses Green Hydrogen Cooperation with Japanese Prefecture
What happened: On 10 March, Indian pro-government media outlet ANI published an interview with Yamanashi Prefecture Governor Kotaro Nagasaki about his pursuit of clean energy cooperation with Uttar Pradesh’s government.
This includes an MoU focusing on green hydrogen cooperation, signed in December. It centers around the Yamanashi Hydro Company, which offers hydrogen production technology. Indian engineers and students will be invited to work and study at the company.
Why it matters: The MoU is clearly meant to bolster Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s efforts to meet the National Green Hydrogen Mission’s deadline of starting green hydrogen production by early 2027.
What happens next: This could be an impactful project for India as it moves toward its green hydrogen production goal, so long as it gets rolling in a reasonable period of time. Investors should keep track of the plan to bring Indian workers and students to Japan to work with the Yamanashi Hydro Company. Nagasaki didn’t specify when this would happen, though he emphasized that he’s taking steps to ensure that Indians are comfortable spending extended time there.
Japan: CCS Subsidies Take Shape
What happened: Since early February, METI has been fine-tuning its CCS support framework by formulating how subsidies would work for CCS projects’ costs and mandating project continuation beyond subsidies.
These discussions are already signaling to investors that Japan’s subsidies will resemble the Netherlands and UK auction schemes. CCS tech installed on fossil fuel power plants will be eligible for the Long-Term Decarbonized Power Auction (another support scheme).
Why it matters: Last month, METI put together a new advisory committee to discuss the specifics of achieving the target of capturing and storing 6-12mn tons of CO2 annually by 2030, as set out in the January 2023 CCS Long-Term Roadmap.
What happens next: The working group will meet monthly to iron out the wrinkles in Japan’s CCS policy. METI plans to produce an interim report from these discussions by the middle of this year, followed by a final report by the end of 2025 that will form the core of a policy roadmap for the country’s CCS ambitions.
Mexico: Sheinbaum’s Popularity Skyrockets Amid Tariff Rollback
What happened: President Claudia Sheinbaum held a massive rally at Mexico City’s Zocalo, marking a political victory after Trump backed down on tariff threats.
Why it matters: The rally reinforced Sheinbaum’s leadership and dispelled perceptions that she is merely AMLO’s protege. Her messaging balanced nationalism with pragmatism, emphasizing dialogue with the US while solidifying domestic political power.
What happens next: Challenges remain, including the looming USMCA review and Trump’s continued pressure on trade and security. The government must navigate economic uncertainty and potential US military action against fentanyl targets.
Nigeria: El-Rufai Leaves APC, Joins SDP For 2027 Opposition Effort
What happened: Former Kaduna State Gov Nasir el-Rufai defected from the APC to the SDP.
Why it matters: El-Rufai quit the APC to build an opposition coalition that can challenge his former friend President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s second-term push. He has been in talks with PDP leader Atiku Abubakar and Labor Party leader Peter Obi for months.
What happens next: The divisive el-Rufai is a heavy hitter: His defection is a loss for the APC and will lead to short-term instability in the party. It may also spark similar moves from other APC bigwigs unhappy with Tinubu; former Rivers State Gov Rotimi Amaechi is one to watch.
Russia: $1.7bn Cash Refund Request Sends Warning to Miller
What happened: The Prosecutor General Service has requested that Kirill Seleznyov, a former senior Gazprom executive, refund the state about $1.7bn of the money allegedly misappropriated from the gas monopoly.
Why it matters: Seleznyov is closely connected to Gazprom CEO Aleksei Miller. He also serves as general director of RusKhimAlyans, the operator of Gazprom’s Ust-Luga LNG and petrochemical project co-owned by Gazprom and Arkadiy Rotenberg, Vladimir Putin’s billionaire childhood friend.
What happens next: The case is an opening volley designed to pressure Miller to resign. Its progress will serve as a signpost of his ability to retain control over the gas monopoly.
Yemen: Sudden Change in Houthi Leadership: A Thought Experiment
What happened: The Houthis’ leadership structure remains heavily centered around Abdulmalek al-Houthi as an unimpeachable decision-maker and a unifying pole between different factions.
Why it matters: Removing Abdulmalek — however it might notionally occur — would lead to a quick reconsolidation under his nephew, Ali Hussein al-Houthi, and strengthen ties with Iran.
What happens next: The need for new leadership to demonstrate strength and build legitimacy could mean more aggressive positioning for the medium term, leading to a broader abandonment of the peace process.
Stakeholder Influence Tracker: Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar
Bollywood star John Abraham lavished praise on External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, saying he loves to hear him speak. He also called Jaishankar the “poster boy” of the true India as it should be seen in the world.
Jaishankar is widely admired in India for his ability to project strength and confidence in his diplomacy while also lobbing social-media-friendly zingers to respond to criticism. He is also a darkhorse candidate to one day replace Narendra Modi as BJP party chair.
However, Jaishankar lacks a deep political base.
Given Abraham’s popularity across India for his action hero roles, we believe the Bollywood star’s latest comments will offer Jaishankar a nice reputational boost. They could also help strengthen his political cause as a possible Modi successor.
Find Out More
These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive products – if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.
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