Welcome to this week’s On Our Radar, our summary of developments from the past week that will have a significant impact on emerging markets, and, crucially, exactly why they are relevant to foreign investors.
These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive services – if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.
This week’s banner image is of Greece’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Giorgos Gerapetritis (attribution: Υπουργείο Εξωτερικών under CC 2.0), whose meeting with US State Secretary is covered in the Country Insights Roundup.
Country Insights Roundup
Azerbaijan: Government Advances Digital and Energy Infrastructure With Key Deals
What happened: The government is expanding its regional partnerships in energy, digital infrastructure and trade, signing key agreements with Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Russia and Turkey.
Why it matters: These initiatives reduce Azerbaijan’s reliance on traditional partners, increase its leverage in regional trade and create new opportunities for investors in sectors like green energy, digital infrastructure and logistics.
What happens next: The government will focus on addressing infrastructure bottlenecks, increasing BTC pipeline capacity and advancing the Middle Corridor while managing its strategic balance between regional powers to maintain stability.
Cote d’Ivoire: New Petroleum Code on the Horizon in Abidjan
What happened: There is rising speculation that the Ivorian government is planning to overhaul its petroleum code.
Why it matters: The new code would likely reduce tax exemptions during the production phase of oil and gas projects while also plausibly increasing Petroci’s role in production-sharing contracts.
What happens next: Revisions to the code will almost certainly not be completed before 2026/2027. We do not foresee the upcoming presidential election derailing or delaying these plans.
Greece: Athens Cautiously Optimistic on East Med Energy, Less So on Vertical Corridor
What happened: FM Gerapetritis’s meeting with US State Secretary Rubio after the Trump-Zelensky showdown gives Athens some comfort in proceeding with energy projects in the eastern Mediterranean.
Why it matters: The talks are key to plugging the information gap on US intentions in the East Med, a critical component of Greece’s strategic goal of becoming a regional energy hub.
What happens next: The Trump administration’s recent actions on Ukraine also hint at potential upsets and have elicited a more cautious response from Greek diplomacy.
India: MNRE Unveils Green Hydrogen-Fueled Vehicle Pilot Projects
What happened: On 3 March, the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) launched five pilot projects to use hydrogen-fueled vehicles for trial. The initiative is a part of the National Green Hydrogen Mission.
Why it matters: These are the largest pilot projects to date to be linked to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s plan to make India a major green hydrogen producer. The PM wants to signal the government’s fervent commitment to meeting the mission’s goal of beginning green hydrogen production by early 2027 (at the latest).
What happens next: The 18-24 month timeline for commission aligns quite closely with New Delhi’s (early 2027 at the latest) plan to formally begin green hydrogen production. If these pilot projects proceed on schedule, they’ll be moving forward at the very moment when India is beginning to produce green hydrogen. Politically, to be able to show that a fleet of trucks and buses across the country is preparing to run on green hydrogen could be a big advantage for the government as the next national elections approach ahead of the next election in 2029.
Kazakhstan: Government Advances Kalamkas-Khazar Project with Lukoil Amid Diversification Push
What happened: Kazakhstan confirmed that the final investment decision on the Kalamkas-Khazar offshore oil project will be made by the end of 2025.
Why it matters: The latest developments signal Kazakhstan’s pragmatic approach of welcoming Russian investment in complex upstream projects while actively reducing dependence on Russian-controlled export routes, creating opportunities for Western investors in midstream and infrastructure.
What happens next: KMG must navigate rising costs, local content requirements, and technical challenges while balancing geopolitical risks, making 2025 a crucial year for financing and partnerships.
Malaysia: Federal CCUS Plans Face Opposition
What happened: On 4 March and after much delay, Minister of Economy Rafizi Ramli finally tabled the government’s federal CCUS bill in the lower house of parliament. The proposed legislation outlines the responsibilities of both offshore and onshore CCUS site operators and establishes a national CCUS agency. Rafizi said that it would only apply to CCUS activities in Peninsular Malaysia and Labuan, excluding Sarawak and Sabah.
Why it matters: The bill would empower the new CCUS agency to award licenses for the transport, import and assessment of captured CO2 and the operation of carbon storage sites. An “injection levy” will be imposed, the amount of which will be decided by the minister.
What comes next: The CCUS bill must be read a third time before it can be voted on, but it appears unlikely to pass as smoothly as Rafizi had hoped. The government coalition barely controls a two-thirds majority in parliament and relies on the support of lawmakers from Sarawak and Sabah.
Mexico: Sheinbam Plays It Safe on Trump’s Tariffs
What happened: US President Donald Trump announced new tariffs on Mexican imports starting 4 March, marking a sharp escalation in trade tensions. President Claudia Sheinbaum stated in her morning press conference that Mexico will announce countermeasures on 9 March during a rally at Zocalo, Mexico City’s main plaza.
Why it matters: This represents a major deterioration in US-Mexico relations, particularly given Mexico’s recent concessions on trade and security. Over the past month, Mexico has gradually imposed tariffs on Chinese imports and significantly ramped up security cooperation, including high-profile drug seizures and the extradition of 29 cartel leaders — an apparent goodwill gesture to US authorities.
What happens next: The Sheinbaum-Trump call will be pivotal. If it doesn’t go well and tariffs remain in place, we expect Mexico to gradually unveil retaliatory measures while leveraging regional and multilateral pressure. Whether this marks the beginning of a full-scale trade war or a short-lived standoff will depend on how far both sides are willing to push the envelope.
Morocco: Paris-Rabat Political Honeymoon Paves the Way for French Investment in Energy Sector
What happened: Two visits by senior French officials to Morocco and Western Sahara reaffirmed France’s support for Rabat’s sovereignty claims over the disputed territory.
Why it matters: The visits cement France and Morocco’s reconciliation and solidify Rabat’s stance on Western Sahara with little international pushback.
What happens next: Thanks to the renewed relationship, French investment in Morocco’s energy sector is set to boom, though legal disputes and political shifts could create occasional tensions.
Nigeria: Oyetola Meets DP World Delegation as Ports Focus Intensifies
What happened: Minister of Marine and Blue Economy Gboyega Oyetola met a delegation from Dubai’s DP World during the Emirati firm’s visit to Abuja.
Why it matters: The meeting indicates that President Tinubu’s overtures to the Gulf are starting to pay off. A buy-in from DPW would be a major endorsement of his reforms and a positive signal to other Emirati investors, including in oil and gas.
What happens next: We expect DPW to make a formal proposal to Abuja, which Tinubu and Oyetola will receive with alacrity. However, Nigeria’s ports, especially those in Lagos, are infamous for their complexity: Oyetola and any potential investors have a fight on their hands as they attempt to automate ports systems.
United States: Trump’s Tariff True Believers, Skeptics and Opportunists
What happened: Trump’s contradictory views on tariffs make him susceptible to different framings by those around him.
Why it matters: The president’s inner circle is composed of tariff true believers (Peter Navarro), skeptics (Scott Bessent) and opportunists (Howard Lutnick).
What happens next: If countries impose reciprocal tariffs, we expect Trump to act emotionally and listen more to Navarro and Lutnick than Bessent.
Stakeholder Influence Tracker: ADNOC Downstream CEO Khaled Salmeen
ADNOC Downstream CEO Khaled Salmeen revealed the company has agreed to merge its petrochemical business with Austria’s OMV to create the $60bn Borouge Group International.
The new entity will later acquire Canada’s Nova Chemicals Corp from Mubadala for $13.4bn.
This strategic move strengthens ADNOC’s presence in Europe and North America. In our view, this is part of Khaled’s aggressive growth strategy to position Adnoc’s downstream sector as a petrochemicals giant.
Find Out More
These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive products – if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.
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