Welcome to this week’s On Our Radar, our summary of developments from the past week that will have a significant impact on emerging markets, and, crucially, exactly why they are relevant to foreign investors.
These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive services – if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.
This week’s banner image is of Nigerian National Security Advisor Nuhu Ribadu, who features in the influence tracker at the bottom of the newsletter.
Country Insights Roundup
Argentina: Milei Gets Support from Trump and Musk in DC, Hopes for Quick IMF Deal
What happened: President Javier Milei received rock-star treatment in Washington DC during the CPAC conference and a meeting with President Donald Trump.
Why it matters: The trip included key meetings with the IMF about a new agreement. Milei and Economy Minister Luis Caputo will rely heavily on the Trump White House to get it done in the coming weeks.
What happens next: Caputo and IMF staffers will work on the fine print of the new deal, especially on a key point of contention surrounding the government’s use of Central Bank reserves to artificially appreciate the peso.
Australia: South Australia Pulls Plug on Hydrogen Project
What happened: Last week, South Australian Premier Peter Malinauskas confirmed he is axing his flagship $400mn hydrogen plant amid financial chaos surrounding the primary customer, Whyalla Steelworks.
Why it matters: Before abandoning this project, the South Australian government had committed more than $350mn to the Hydrogen Jobs Plan to build the world’s first power station to run on renewable hydrogen. The facility was to consist of a 200MW hydrogen-fueled power station, 250MW of electrolyzers and a 100-ton hydrogen storage facility.
What happens next: The South Australian government has already allocated the funds earmarked for the hydrogen project to Whyalla to try to keep the plant operating while a buyer is sought. It is the second time in 10 years that the steelworks have been placed into administration, and who will be willing to buy the struggling plant is unclear.
Cote d’Ivoire: Xenophobia Resurges Ahead of Election
What happened: Dissident members of the opposition PDCI withdrew a campaign to remove their leader, Tidjane Thiam.
Why it matters: The campaign was based around Thiam’s alleged foreign nationality, which the ruling RHDP has also increasingly been attacking. This raises fears of an increase in xenophobic rhetoric associated with the 2025 election.
What happens next: The campaign’s withdrawal should strengthen the PDCI, which will coalesce more strongly around Thiam. However, continuing xenophobic rhetoric will likely increase election tensions.
Cyprus: Government Expects Cronos Gas In 2026, Aphrodite 2029
What happened: In Cairo earlier this month, the Cypriot government signed a pair of deals with the partners in the Aphrodite and Cronos gas fields. The government hopes these deals will finally pave the way to gas production before the turn of the decade.
Why it matters: Despite discovering gas more than 13 years ago, Cyprus has yet to see a single molecule produced. Expectations now rest on the shoulders of the partners of the Cronos field, discovered in 2022, and the Aphrodite field, discovered in 2011.
What happens next: Cronos’s operator, Italian firm Eni, is confident that it can get the field producing before the end of 2026. It has yet to file a development plan with Cypriot authorities. However, the company signed a Host Government Agreement (HGA) with the Egyptian government and stated that “the gas will be transported and processed in existing Zohr facilities to be then liquefied in the Damietta LNG plant for export to European markets.”
Greece: European Commission Scrutinizes Hydrocarbon Licenses
What happened: NGOs are urging the European Commission to look into complaints that Greece’s oil and gas licenses breach EU environmental rules.
Why it matters: The move comes as the Greek government launches fresh tenders for exploration and exploitation in the Ionian Sea.
What happens next: Legal complaints will not halt the licensing process but can take years to play out, making them potentially costly for investors.
India: Gentari Wants Modi’s Attention to Gain Competitive Edge in Green Hydrogen
What happened: Gentari CEO Sushil Purohit recently expressed optimism about the future of green hydrogen production in India. However, he said that having a round-the-clock renewable energy supply is essential to reduce green hydrogen production costs (currently around $5 per kg).
Why it matters: Purohit’s comment can be read in part as an attempt to get the attention of the Indian government. Gentari, unlike domestic giants Adani Group and Reliance but like other international players in India’s energy space, is not known to have deep ties to the Modi administration (although the government most definitely embraces its investments).
What happens next: There are two big signposts to watch. The first is if the government itself begins to draw more clear links between ramping up renewable energy production and lowering green hydrogen production costs. The second is if any news emerges of meetings between Gentari or Petronas officials and senior Indian government authorities.
Mexico: Trump Designates Cartels as FTOs Amid Tariff Battle
What happened: The Trump administration designated eight Latin American organized crime groups, including Mexico’s Sinaloa Cartel and Jalisco New Generation Cartel, as FTOs.
Why it matters: The FTO designations escalate US-Mexico tensions, complicating ongoing trade negotiations amid the threat of tariffs. It also reframes drug cartel activities as national security threats, potentially justifying US intervention.
What happens next: Sheinbaum will likely continue strengthening domestic security through intelligence-led operations and local law enforcement reforms. She will also try to balance nationalistic rhetoric with pragmatic cooperation with the US to avoid economic repercussions.
Nigeria: Visa on arrival program no longer to be cancelled
What happened: President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s Presidential Enabling Business Environment Council (PEBEC) met with Interior Minister Olubunmi Tunji-Ojo to discuss his plans to end Nigeria’s visa on arrival program. After the meeting, PEBEC said the program will not be scrapped. Instead, it will be upgraded and simplified.
Why it matters: Earlier this month, Tunji-Ojo announced plans to cancel Nigeria’s visa on arrival program, citing security concerns and a planned wider overhaul of the country’s visa rules. The news prompted swift backlash from foreign investors concerned about new hurdles to their travel to Nigeria.
What happens next: In our view, this latest development is a positive for foreign investors. It shows that Tinubu remains committed to a pro-business agenda and that his advisors are prepared to intervene when ministries signal anti-business moves that could threaten this investment drive.
South Korea: Trump’s Steel Tariff Will Impact LNG and Decarbonization
What happened: After the Trump administration reimposed a 25% tariff on South Korean steel imports, Acting President Choi Sang-mok will negotiate with Washington and explore alternative trade partnerships.
Why it matters: The steel tariff could significantly increase costs for LNG infrastructure, shipbuilding and hydrogen projects, affecting South Korea’s decarbonization and energy transition plans.
What happens next: Energy investors should monitor potential retaliatory tariffs and new LNG trade policies, with Canadian partnerships as an alternative to US exposure.
Yemen: New Money Network Underlines Paradox in Houthi Response to FTO Designation
What happened: The Houthis are reportedly preparing to launch an impending unified money exchange network in response to the Trump administration’s FTO designation.
Why it matters: The Houthis’ centralizing instinct may undermine their efforts to distance their regime from financial and economic institutions.
What happens next: If such coping strategies fail, the Houthi leadership will likely choose to resume hostilities in Yemen, with the ROYG-held Marib Governorate as the most likely target.
Stakeholder Influence Tracker: Nigerian National Security Advisor Nuhu Ribadu
National Security Advisor Nuhu Ribadu responded to accusations that he is working to undermine former Kaduna State Governor Nasir Ahmad el-Rufai in order to boost his prospects for a presidential run in 2031. Ribadu denied having any plans to run in six years. He also said he is too busy on his security brief to engage with el-Rufai, a clear swipe at the former governor’s current status as a political outsider.
Some of el-Rufai’s former state government commissioners are currently being investigated by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission. In a recent interview, el-Rufai claimed this inquiry is part of Ribadu’s efforts to remove obstacles to his presidential ambitions in 2031.
Despite his denial, we believe Ribadu is interested in running for president in 2031. If el-Rufai defects from the governing APC or sets up a new party, he could be a stubborn opponent for Ribadu to deal with.
Find Out More
These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive products – if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.
About Horizon Engage
Horizon Engage provides country-level analysis on political, social and environmental issues that impact the investment climate for foreign direct investors. We’re changing the game for our clients by merging tech and geopolitical expertise in a whole new way. Let us be your eyes and ears so you can make decisions with confidence. Learn what we do.
