On Our Radar: Weekly Energy Markets Round-Up 01 30 25

Welcome to this week’s On Our Radar, our summary of developments from the past week that will have a significant impact on emerging markets, and, crucially, exactly why they are relevant to foreign investors.

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive services – if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information. 

This week’s banner image is of Kazakhstan Preisdent Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, whose government held an extended meeting on, amongst other things, mining and energy this week.

Country Insights Roundup

Argentina: Milei Speeds Up Privatization of Energy Sector Assets

What happened: President Javier Milei’s administration is about to complete its first privatization: the technology firm IMPSA will be sold to a US firm.

Why it matters: The privatization drive is key for Milei to deliver on his libertarian program of less government participation and boost his administration’s finances.

What happens next: At least six energy sector firms will be up for sale in the coming months, but with the “cepo” currency restrictions still in effect, local companies will have the upper hand over foreign investors.

 

Cote d’Ivoire: Ivorian Government Leads West Africa on Carbon Credit, Renewables

What happened: Cote d’Ivoire hosted the first-ever forum in West Africa dedicated to international carbon markets.

Why it matters: The government is dedicating considerable resources to developing its role in the carbon credit sector, which should see it become a regional leader in the coming years.

What happens next: Growing emphasis on renewable energy and carbon credit poses almost no threat to the development of the oil and gas sector, which the government will continue to develop.

 

Cyprus: Government Warms To Egyptian Overtures

What happened: Egypt Petroleum Minister Karim Badawi visited Cyprus on 24 January, meeting with Energy Minister George Papanastasiou and President Nikos Christodoulides. His visit signals improving relations between the two countries with Egypt keen to secure as much Cypriot gas as possible.

Why it matters: Following the meeting, Badawi revealed that Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi officially invited Christodoulides to attend the upcoming Egypt Energy Show in Cairo in February to witness the signing of two key deals.

What happens next: While the Aphrodite partners have filed a development plan that envisions sending the gas to Egypt, the Cronos partners have yet to submit their plan. Once approved, the partners in both fields will need to launch pre-FEED and FEED studies and attempt to secure gas sales agreements.

 

Greece: History of Misses Tempers Excitement Over New Hydrocarbon Licensing

What happened: Greece is set to expand offshore hydrocarbon exploration with an invitation to tender for new concession areas.

Why it matters: The Mitsotakis administration is claiming credit for the development, but industry sources say the licensing process needs improving before drilling starts.

What happens next: Geopolitical sensitivities, planning objections and slow bureaucracy will continue to hamper any prospect of drilling, despite cross-party support for exploiting domestic hydrocarbons.

 

India: Budget May Include Green Hydrogen Support for Polluting Sectors

What happened: The Ministry of New and Renewable Energy has made a pitch for India’s next budget to include support for hard-to-abate but heavily polluting sectors—including steel, cement, and power—to work on green hydrogen initiatives. The department is concerned that high capital expenditures have prevented the adoption of green hydrogen and green technologies more broadly.

Why it matters: This pitch has a political dimension. Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be under growing pressure this year and next to show that India is on target to start producing green hydrogen by early 2027 at the latest.

What happens next: Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is expected to announce and lay out the budget in Parliament on 1 February.

 

Japan: Green Transformation Unscathed By Ishiba’s Shaky Political Footing

What happened: On 24 January, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba gave a policy speech to mark the start of the regular session of parliament. Akin to the US presidential State of the Union address, this annual speech highlights the Japanese premiere’s policy priorities for the year.

Why it matters: The Green Transformation (GX) strategy and decarbonization — including hydrogen — will be part and parcel of the PM’s pleasant Japan. Where does decarbonization fit in? Ishiba mentioned GX and expanding carbon-free power sources like renewables, nuclear, and hydrogen hubs and efficiently developing their supply networks. The funding will come from finalizing the so-called “growth-oriented carbon pricing” and transitioning to a circular economy to attract over 150tn yen (almost $1tn) in GX investment.

What happens next: Ishiba’s political tightrope notwithstanding, Japan’s energy policy continues apace. Its 7th Strategic Energy Plan, which retains its ambitious hydrogen and CCS targets, will be finalized by the end of March.

 

Kazakhstan: Government Meeting Focused on Energy, Mining and VAT Increase

What happened: Tokayev led an extended government meeting to evaluate socioeconomic development in 2024 and set priorities for energy, mining and infrastructure. Despite media speculation, he did not announce a cabinet reshuffle.

Why it matters: The meeting highlighted the government’s focus on addressing energy deficits, accelerating nuclear and gas projects, fostering rare-earth metal mining and tackling economic over-reliance on the National Fund.

What happens next: Kazakhstan will expedite gas and nuclear energy projects and likely deepen foreign partnerships in mining, energy and logistics. Tax reforms and infrastructure modernization will likely accompany these developments, and relevant state bodies will face potential reshuffles if progress lags.

 

Singapore: Government Reiterates Confidence in CCUS for 2030 Climate Mitigation Goals

What happened: For the first time, Singapore’s government released details of eight specific measures to meet its 2030 target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. CCUS will account for more than 20%.

Why it matters: In a November 2024 report submitted to the United Nations, the government reiterated Singapore’s commitment to CCUS, touting it as a solution to reduce emissions from hard-to-abate sectors such as energy and chemicals, which accounted for 25% of the island’s total manufacturing output in 2022. This corroborates the government’s earlier Sustainable Jurong Island plan, which targets achieving at least 2 mtpa of CO2 abatement through CCS by 2030 and at least 6 mtpa of CO2 abatement from low-carbon solutions by 2050.

What happens next: As of 2022, CCUS has not reduced any emissions in Singapore. The government has only recently announced the formation of a hub to study the feasibility of developing an end-to-end CCUS value chain.

Suriname: Rising From its Ashes, NPS May Reshape Political Landscape

What happened: The NPS is outperforming expectations in recent polls for the May elections.

Why it matters: The party appeals to a section of the electorate that wants a centrist alternative to the VHP’s questionable record in power and the NDP’s internal problems.

What happens next: The new electoral system benefits the NPS, which could become a kingmaker in forming the next government — and demand the Oil and Gas Ministry as the price for its support.

 

United States: Trump’s Colombia Tariff Spat Shows Rubio’s Weakness

What happened: President Donald Trump threatened Colombia with huge tariffs and sanctions in a migration dispute. After picking a fight, Colombian President Gustavo Petro quickly backed down.

Why it matters: Trump’s reaction to a situation that traditionally would have been an easy fix for the State Department was disproportionate. This demonstrates his aggressive foreign policy approach, using tariffs and similar measures as bargaining tools.

What happens next: Trump views the situation as a win, but the US diplomatic service will feel the long-term impact as they try to counter Chinese influence in Latin America.

 

Stakeholder Influence Tracker: Gregory Rusland, Chairman of the National Party of Suriname

NPS leader Gregory Rusland announced in an interview that the party will officially register with the Independent Electoral Bureau (OKB) this week. The party’s revised regulations have been approved, resolving previous issues. OKB chair Samseerali Sheikh-Alibaks confirmed that the required documents were submitted and reviewed, meeting all standards.

This marks the end of a contentious period for the NPS. The party initially faced rejection due to incomplete documentation, leading to a legal battle. While the court did not rule on the OKB’s authority to assess party statutes, the NPS pursued adjustments in parallel. With all issues resolved, the OKB is set to approve their registration formally.

The NPS can now move forward confidently as a political force. Their increasing popularity positions them as a potential key player in shaping the upcoming government.

Find Out More

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive products – if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information. 

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