Welcome to this week’s On Our Radar, our summary of developments from the past week that will have a significant impact on emerging markets, and, crucially, exactly why they are relevant to foreign investors.
These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive services – if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.
This week’s banner image (attribution: European Union) is of Greece Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, who features in one of the Country Insights excerpts below.
Country Insights Roundup
Angola: Lourenco Visits Paris With Non-Oil Investment in Mind
What happened: President Joao Lourenco met with French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris, strengthening bilateral relations and asserting France as one of Lourenco’s preferred Western partners alongside the US.
Why it matters: While the pair made some investment pledges, there have not been substantial non-energy projects implemented. As a result, Lourenco called for a bilateral chamber of commerce and industry.
What happens next: Lourenco’s administration will welcome investments outside of the energy sector as part of its plans to diversify the economy and boost socioeconomic development.
Argentina: Can Milei Fit Argentina into Trump’s America First Plans?
What happened: President Javier Milei, one of the few foreign leaders who attended Donald Trump’s second inauguration, got rock-star treatment by Trump followers.
Why it matters: Milei hopes that full alignment with the Trump administration will have immediate benefits for Argentina, including a new agreement with the IMF.
What happens next: Beyond the political affinity between the two leaders, the countries have a broad agenda that may require Buenos Aires to make tough calls on investment in key sectors of the economy and Argentina’s relationship with its main trade partners.
Cote d’Ivoire: Violence in Bettie Highlights Security Concerns for October Election
What happened: The town of Bettie declared a 72-hour curfew following days of unrest and violence between civilians and security personnel.
Why it matters: While the violence is unlikely to spread to Abidjan, it underscores nationwide mistrust of security forces following corruption scandals.
What happens next: Lack of professionalism within the security forces increases the likelihood of civil unrest, which could damage assets in the lead-up to the presidential election.
Cyprus: Electra Spuds but Future Plans Unclear
What happened: The highly anticipated Electra well was spudded in offshore Block 5 this week. However, officials remain unsure whether a potential play-opening gas discovery will be enough to revive Nicosia’s LNG export plans.
Why it matters: Cypriot media has been abuzz about the well’s prospects since December, when news broke of Electra pre-drill estimates being as high as 30 tcf. Energy Minister George Papanastasiou initially wanted to temper that excitement, saying that “unless you drill, you can’t confirm if this optimism will become a reality.”
What happens next: Officials are currently examining the risk of sending gas to Egypt, a renowned tardy payer to IECs. They are also looking at what gas Cyprus can obtain for its gas and whether it could be earmarked for LNG exports.
Greece: Mitsotakis Asks EU for Gas Investments
What happened: PM Mitsotakis has penned a second letter to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen asking for action to lower energy prices.
Why it matters: The second letter explicitly calls for unlocking investments in natural gas infrastructure and loosening emissions targets.
What happens next: Mitsotakis is anticipating a new wave of electricity price hikes at a time when the cost of living remains the top voter concern, providing fertile ground for opposition attacks.
Mexico: Sheinbaum’s Cross-Border Test
What happened: On 20 January, Donald Trump officially took office as the 47th president of the United States. His inaugural address emphasized immediate and sweeping measures that will reshape US-Mexico relations.
Why it matters: Key announcements in Trump’s inaugural address directly impact Mexico, highlighting a shift toward stricter border policies and heightened security measures. Among these is declaring a national emergency at the southern border, reinstating the “Remain in Mexico” policy for asylum seekers and deporting all undocumented individuals, starting with criminal migrants.
What happens next: We expect President Claudia Sheinbaum to leverage a nationalist narrative, emphasizing sovereignty and solidarity with Mexican migrants. This aligns with her administration’s recent symbolic gestures, such as the December release of a patriotic hymn dedicated to migrants.
Mozambique: Chapo Restructures the Government
What happened: New President Daniel Chapo restructured the government, appointing new ministers who stand out for their little political weight and relatively young age.
Why it matters: By introducing a new generation of officials, Chapo wants to break with the past amid ongoing post-electoral civil unrest and growing criticism of Frelimo.
What happens next: We expect new Planning and Development Minister Salimo Vala to be one of the most important cabinet members across all sectors of the economy, including energy.
Nigeria: Tinubu Meets Ogoni Leaders; Eyes Oil Production Restart
What happened: President Bola Ahmed Tinubu met traditional leaders from Ogoniland in Abuja for talks to strengthen the relationship between the oil-rich region in Rivers State and his government in Abuja.
Why it matters: Tinubu framed the meeting as a chance to rebuild bridges and repair the longstanding distrust with which the Ogoni people have viewed the federal government since the death of activist Ken Saro-Wiwa in the mid-1990s. Large-scale oil production stopped in the region earlier that decade, though abundant resources remain, alongside extensive environmental damage.
What happens next: The stakeholder landscape is highly complex. The president must balance the conflicting interests of those who see the value of Ogoni oil and those who say the government must channel more funds into ecological restoration. Civil society organizations blasted the meeting for excluding the majority of Ogoni voices in favor of a handpicked and influential minority.
Turkey: Mongols Hope to Reach Europe Through Turkey
What happened: Mongolia’s “Third Neighbor Policy” to diversify partnerships is a good fit for Turkey’s successful commercial expansion in Central Asia.
Why it matters: Turkey’s manufacturing sector and Mongolia’s mining and metals industries may be a good fit as Ankara seeks to further build its industrial power.
What happens next: Renewables, mining, healthcare and defense sales are the key markets that Turkey is pursuing in Mongolia.
Yemen: Damaged Ports Put a Squeeze on Northern Yemen Imports
What happened: Israeli airstrikes on the Houthi-held Red Sea ports have greatly reduced the ability to import goods into northern Yemen.
Why it matters: The Houthis will now exploit the Gaza ceasefire to recover some of this import potential, probably avoiding new strikes on Israel unless severely provoked.
What happens next: Energetic port repair and the cycling-in of new tugboats will prevent a humanitarian crisis and avoid the need for the Houthis to rely upon Aden-landed grain.
Stakeholder Influence Tracker
Rising Influence: Iraqi Kurdistan Deputy Chief of Staff Aziz Ahmed
Aziz Ahmed closed yet another successful venture by winning Visa’s participation in the KRG’s financial inclusion initiative “MyAccount”.
The Kurdistan Region and Visa are now digital partners in the payment solutions and financial inclusion effort, with Visa adding its brand and its PR machine to the effort to spread awareness and trust for the system.
At a time when Baghdad banks are coming under scrutiny and when federal electronic payment systems are being tied to foreign terrorist organizations, this is a big feather in the cap for Kurdistan and for Aziz.
Ultimately, Masrour Barzani gets the political credit, but he knows that Aziz’ management of the portfolio has been first-class and this will boost his trust in his deputy chief of staff.
Masrour has very few advisors who are both loyal and competent: Aziz is one of them.
Declining Influence: Colombia President Gustavo Petro
President Gustavo Petro visited Haiti despite a wave of violence gripping Colombia, with deadly clashes between guerrilla groups threatening the nation’s fragile peace accords. His trip comes shortly after the abrupt resignation of his foreign minister and amid escalating tensions in the Catatumbo region, where recent rebel attacks have left over 80 dead and displaced 18,000 people.
Haitian authorities aim to strengthen ties with Colombia, citing its experience with guerrilla conflicts as a potential model. Discussions are expected to include trade opportunities through a newly inaugurated port and the possibility of arms purchases for Haiti’s struggling security forces. However, the visit avoids addressing the imprisonment of 17 former Colombian soldiers accused in the 2021 assassination of Haitian President Jovenel Moise, a sensitive issue for both nations.
The timing of Petro’s visit has sparked criticism, given its timing amid Colombia’s domestic crisis. While Haitian officials welcome the engagement, the trip raises concerns about Petro’s focus on international diplomacy over national issues and could damage his standing at home.
Find Out More
These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive products – if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.
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