Welcome to this week’s On Our Radar, our summary of developments from the past week that will have a significant impact on emerging markets, and, crucially, exactly why they are relevant to foreign investors.
These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive services – if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.
This week’s banner image is of Iraq Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, who is featured in the Stakeholder Influence Tracker at the bottom of the summary.
Country Insights Roundup
Argentina: Milei, IMF Lock Horns Over Super Strong Peso
What happened: The IMF praised President Javier Milei’s economic program but warned that the peso is getting too strong and risks hurting the economy’s overall competitiveness.
Why it matters: The Milei administration is moving in the opposite direction, slowing peso devaluation to tighten its anti-inflation policy at the start of the electoral year.
What happens next: Argentina and the IMF will negotiate a new agreement this quarter. This will be one major issue of contention but not impede reaching an understanding.
Australia: Naturally Occurring Hydrogen Found in New South Wales
What happened: A recent report from Geoscience Australia, in collaboration with the Geological Survey of New South Wales, has found elevated levels of naturally occurring hydrogen in various locations in the state.
Why it matters: Hydrogen has long been touted as an alternative to fossil fuels in hard-to-abate sectors such as some industrial processes, such as ammonia and fertiliser production, iron and steel making, and heavy vehicle transport. However, the cost of producing clean hydrogen has been challenged by the high cost of electricity required to split hydrogen from water molecules.
What happens next: The report provides explorers with geological information and a comprehensive methodology for testing soil gas samples for natural hydrogen. The government hopes these additional tools will bring forward exploration expenditure by hydrogen investors.
Greece: Athens Ramps Up Energy Diplomacy to Counter Emerging Turkey-Syria Axis
What happened: Turkey’s close involvement with the new regime in Syria has refocused Greek diplomacy on strengthening alliances with major players in the eastern Mediterranean.
Why it matters: Cross-border energy projects are central to talks with Israel, Egypt and Saudi Arabia as Athens sets out to demarcate its territorial claims.
What happens next: The GSI cable surveys will test the geopolitical mettle of the alliances and the feasibility of similar projects in the new eastern Mediterranean landscape.
India: Modi Kicks Off Massive Green H2 Hub Project in Andhra Pradesh
What happened: On 8 January, Prime Minister Narendra Modi laid the foundational stone for a $21bn green energy complex in Andhra Pradesh. The project is expected to produce more than half a million tons of green hydrogen annually — 1,500 tons per day.
Why it matters: This is a key project for investors to watch as its massive size suggests it is envisioned as a flagship component of Modi’s National Green Hydrogen Mission.
What happens next: The project will reportedly require 5 GW of electrolyzers to meet green hydrogen production goals. One signpost to watch is if sufficient finances are secured. If not, the production estimates may quietly be drawn down. Since Modi is all about thinking big and bold, he’ll likely prefer that the current production estimates remain in place. But given the stakes of this project for the PM, the most important thing is that it gets completed and comes online by 2032.
What happened: On 10 January, Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said he hoped that a planned hydrogen production hub in Bintulu, Sarawak, would meet a May 2025 deadline. The project is backed by the Sarawak Economic Development Corporation (SEDC), Petronas and Japanese firms Eneos and Sumitomo.
Why it matters: Throughout Shigeru’s visit, Anwar emphasized that both countries collaborate to make Sarawak the region’s hub for new energy. Abang Jo is playing a leading role in these plans. In fact, the Sarawak premier attended the bilateral meeting and sat in an honorary position on Anwar’s right.
What happens next: We recommend watching Fadillah’s ministry, Petra, for national policy changes. Meanwhile, investors keen on participating directly in Sarawak’s hydrogen sector should continue building a relationship with SEDC, where CEO Robert Hardin is a key figure to engage.
Mexico: Sheinbaum’s First 100 Days
What happened: During her first 100 days in office, President Claudia Sheinbaum oversaw the swift approval of a dozen constitutional reforms, drove significant institutional centralization and introduced energy sector changes.
Why it matters: These actions signal a continuation of AMLO’s governance blueprint, focusing on state-centric policies that impact regulatory environments and investor confidence.
What happens next: Sheinbaum must now implement judicial reforms, address escalating violence and manage bilateral relations under Trump 2.0 — likely one of her administration’s most formidable challenges.
Nigeria: Kyari Hits 60; Stays at NNPC Helm
What happened: NNPC Group CEO Mele Kolo Kyari marked his 60th birthday without leaving his post at the oil firm.
Why It matters: The 8 January date had become the focus of intense interest, with widespread expectations in Abuja that it could mark the controversial energy chief’s departure since NNPC staff usually retire at 60.
What happens next: With a valedictory tone to President Tinubu’s birthday message, consistent talk about likely replacements and intriguing moves elsewhere in the senior ranks at NNPC, we do not count out Kyari’s exit in the next few months. A signpost to watch is the government’s tax reform program, which is unpopular in Kyari’s northern home base.
Sao Tome and Principe: Vila Nova-Trovoada Feud Divides Ruling Party
What happened: President Carlos Vila Nova picked Central Bank Gov. Americo Ramos as Prime Minister, the second in a week.
Why it matters: Cracks are showing in the ruling party amid a bitter power dispute between Vila Nova and dismissed former PM Patrice Trovoada.
What happens next: The new government’s political future will be decided in parliament next week; snap elections are not in ADI’s interest.
United States: Nominations Reveal How Parties Will Address Trump’s Second Term
What happened: The Senate began confirmation hearings for Donald Trump’s cabinet nominations, starting with Pete Hegseth, nominee for Secretary of Defense.
Why it matters: This is Congress’s first time dealing with governance for Trump’s second term, showing how they address topics outside the bounds of normal politics.
What happens next: So far, Senate Republicans appear to be caving into Trump’s demands, while Democrats are playing to a public opinion that may not matter anymore.
Yemen: Mystery Runways Hint at Continued UAE Interest in Yemen
What happened: Over the past two years, several mysterious aircraft runways — almost certainly constructed by the UAE — have popped up at strategic points across southern Yemen.
Why it matters: The runways point to a continued — albeit very low-profile — UAE presence, some six years after formally winding down its involvement in the war.
What happens next: These indications of the UAE’s long-term interest in Yemen are positive for investors: Emirati efforts to build up and professionalize their local partner forces would ease the operating environment for IECs in southern Yemen.
Stakeholder Influence Tracker
Rising Influence: Iraq Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al Sudani
Mohammed Shia al Sudani undertook a trip to the UK to meet with his counterpart, Keir Starmer, as well as King Charles III.
Sudani will witness the signing of MOUs but he will mainly be looking to to demonstrate that – even hot on the heels of a Tehran meeting with Supreme Leader Khamenei – he can be feted at Western capitals.
Sudani will no doubt use his access in Tehran to try to pass on messages on Khamenei’s behalf via the UK government, which can be an intermediary between Iran and Washington.
In our view, this is a dress rehearsal for what Sudani aims to do in Mar-a-Lago or the White House in the first half of 2025, to set up his run for a second term. If Sudani can get to the US, this would be a major feather in his cap and he may be willing to offer up a billion dollars in gas and electricity contracts for US firms – opening a short-term opportunity for those who can move quickly.
Declining Influence: Mozambique Politician Carlos Mesquita
Carlos Mesquita’s term as Minister of Public Works, Housing and Water Resources ended with little progress on key projects including repairs to National Road 1 – the country’s main north-south route. In addition, ongoing water shortages have highlighted the lack of investment in the nation’s dams with implications for increasing access to electricity.
Low water levels in central and northern Mozambique have forced water supply restrictions in Nampula, one of Mozambique’s biggest cities. Water shortages also threaten output cuts at the Cahora Bassa Hydroelectric Dam. This is the centerpiece of the government’s plan for universal access to electricity and transform Mozambique into a regional energy hub.
In our view, Mesquita leaves the government with his credibility and reputation severely damaged. His political future may be at risk and will depend on the ability of Filipe Nyusi (with whom he is close) to continue exerting influence after he steps down as president on 15 January.
Find Out More
These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive products – if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.
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