Welcome to this week’s On Our Radar, our summary of developments from the past week that will have a significant impact on emerging markets, and, crucially, exactly why they are relevant to foreign investors.
These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive services – if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.
Country Insights Roundup
Argentina: Business Elite Moves to Keep Special Access in Milei’s Investment Boom
What happened: Tycoon Paolo Rocca called on the Milei administration to establish “a level playing field” for Argentine manufacturers.
Why it matters: Rocca speaks for the business establishment, which fears being crowded out by greater foreign investment in the economy.
What happens next: YPF’s looming decision on who will build a new major pipeline to export Vaca Muerta oil will show how much clout the business elite still has over policy.
Azerbaijan: Baku’s Calculated Approach to South Caucasus Peace Talks
What happened: Azerbaijan and Armenia are close to a peace agreement but remain divided over mutual legal claims and the presence of foreign observers on their border.
Why it matters: By rejecting Western border involvement, Azerbaijan aligns with Russia, balancing national interests while maintaining partnerships with Moscow and carefully managing ties with Turkey and the West.
What happens next: Future negotiations depend on Armenia meeting Azerbaijan’s demands, while Baku maintains strategic ambiguity in alliances and economic plans.
Cote d’Ivoire: Coastal Super-Highway to Revitalize ECOWAS After Sahelexit
What happened: This week’s ECOWAS summit in Abuja focused on the impending departure of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger but also the construction of a new super-highway linking Lagos with Abidjan.
Why it matters: The super-highway underscores the persistent benefits ECOWAS can bring to the region; the project will give the languishing regional bloc a much-needed boost.
What happens next: As ECOWAS becomes liberated from the politics of Sahelexit, it will increasingly focus on regional integration projects that will benefit investors.
Greece: UAE Muscles In on Renewables Sector With Record Green Energy Deal
What happened: Abu Dhabi-based Masdar Energy entered the Greek renewables sector with the record-breaking acquisition of Terna Energy.
Why it matters: The deal, one of several in the pipeline with Gulf players, is a shot in the arm for the Mitsotakis administration’s flagging record on FDI while boosting Greece’s prospects of becoming a green energy hub.
What happens next: Cash-rich Gulf investors are set to play a crucial part in the Greek — and European — energy transition, potentially displacing more cautious Western interests.
Malaysia: Zafrul’s Royal Flush Is Key to Anwar’s Election Endgame
What happened: Tengku Zafrul Abdul Aziz, an influential minister, may leave UMNO for PKR, with PM Anwar Ibrahim said to be engineering his path to become Selangor’s Chief Minister.
Why it matters: Zafrul’s royal connections and investor-friendly profile align with Anwar’s broader strategy of securing support from the monarchy, but he risks straining ties with UMNO and tensions within PKR.
What happens next: A by-election and leadership reshuffle in Selangor could install Zafrul as Chief Minister, while Anwar faces the challenge of maintaining coalition unity amid growing discontent.
Mexico: Sheinbaum Goes Global
What happened: President Claudia Sheinbaum debuted at number 4 on Forbes’ list of the world’s most powerful women.
Why it matters: Sheinbaum’s global prominence as Mexico’s first female leader symbolizes progress but contrasts sharply with the domestic instability she inherited. In our view, her ability to navigate these challenges will define her presidency and test the resilience of her political capital.
What happens next: Rising violence in some parts of Mexico, US pressure under Trump 2.0 and MORENA’s internal divisions threaten Sheinbaum’s ability to maintain domestic stability.
Nigeria: Is the Tanker Turning?
What happened: President Tinubu and his energy team ended the year on a high with a substantial IEC oil FID, the first in Nigeria in over a decade.
Why it matters: The decision is an endorsement of his administration’s energy reforms and raises the prospect of further major investment in 2025, which could boost the long-term outlook for crude production and strengthen the fragile macroeconomic picture.
What happens next: While the news is encouraging, the government still has a long way to go if it is to become a top IEC investment pick. Muted demand in this year’s licensing round pointed to underlying problems with communication, implementation and logistics.
Nigeria: NUPRC Announces 2025 Bid Round
What happened: Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) Chief Executive Gbenga Komolafe said Nigeria will run a licensing round next year as he announced the winners for this year’s and 2022’s delayed bid process at an event in Lagos.
Why it matters: Komolafe said his aggressive approach to licensing Nigerian assets demonstrates the government’s belief in long-term demand for oil and gas. In our view, this also points to a degree of urgency about maximizing returns speedily as the energy transition progresses amid fierce competition from other countries in sub-Saharan Africa, including Angola and Namibia.
What happens next: Muted IEC demand for the 31 blocks up for grabs in the 2024 and 2022 rounds showed that Komolafe and his team still have a ways to go to make Nigerian energy as appealing as Tinubu’s economic agenda demands.
South Korea: Yoon’s Impeachment: LNG Policy Outlook
What happened: The Constitutional Court will soon begin hearings on President Yoon’s impeachment.
Why it matters: Political shifts under a potential opposition-led government could reprioritize energy policies, introducing uncertainty for LNG projects but also creating opportunities for investments in green hydrogen and decarbonization-focused LNG infrastructure.
What Happens Next: Given Yoon’s likely removal, LNG investors should anticipate policy adjustments and strategically align projects with decarbonization narratives.
Stakeholder Influence Tracker
Rising Influence: Zajamal SA’s Carlos Slim
Talos Energy has sold an additional 30.1% stake in Talos Mexico to Zamajal SA, controlled by Carlos Slim’s Grupo Carso. The deal gives Zamajal an 80% share and leaves Talos with 20%.In our view, Slim is consolidating his position in Mexico’s oil and gas sector as larger international players exit.The strategy reflects his confidence in the sector’s potential, particularly in the Zama field, one of Mexico’s most promising discoveries in decades.
Declining Influence: Indonesian Vice President Gibran Rakabuming Raka
Vice President Gibran Rakabuming Raka said he respects PDI-P’s decision to expel him from the party and will focus on helping President Prabowo Subianto. PDI-P General Chair Megawati Sukarnoputri and Secretary General Hasto Kristiyanto signed a December final order ejecting both Gibran and former President Joko Widodo for abuse of power and damaging democracy related to Gibran’s candidacy in the 2024 presidential election.
Find Out More
These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive products – if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.
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