Welcome to this week’s On Our Radar, our summary of developments from the past week that will have a significant impact on emerging markets, and, crucially, exactly why they are relevant to foreign investors.
These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive services – if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.
Country Insights Roundup
Angola: Agroindustry Takes Center Stage in Biden’s Visit
What happened: US President Joe Biden made a historic visit to Angola, visiting the Lobito Corridor and attending a summit hosted by agribusiness mogul Nelson Carrinho.
Why it matters: Grupo Carrinho is the largest player in Angola’s agroindustry market, a priority sector for President Joao Lourenco.
What happens next: Grupo Carrinho is expanding into other sectors of the economy, such as banking, and asserting itself as an important interlocutor and partner for investors.
Australia: FMiA Bill Fails to Pass Before Parliament Holiday Break
What happened: The Albanese administration failed to get the Future Made in Australia (Production Tax Credits and Other Measures) Bill through Parliament and enshrine it into law before lawmakers went on their holiday break. With Parliament not due back until early February, the passage of the FMiA is now under much uncertainty.
Why it matters: Under the bill tabled in Parliament, FMiA will pay developers $1.30 for each kilogram of green hydrogen produced, opening the door to billions in subsidies. However, because the bill did not make it to the upper house, it missed out on all last week’s action.
What happens next: In our view, the ruling Labor Party’s failure to pass the FMiA bill that includes hydrogen production tax credits appears a little odd. Since it had the numbers to do so, the failure suggests Labor did not have the support of the Greens.
Azerbaijan: SOCAR Strengthens Energy Grip in Georgia
What happened: SOCAR announced plans to acquire 41 gas pipelines in western Georgia for $7mn, strengthening its dominance in Georgia’s energy sector.
Why it matters: The deal showcases Azerbaijan’s strategic energy diplomacy. However, deepening ties with Georgia raises risks for Western investors amid Georgia’s pro-Russia political shift.
What happens next: SOCAR’s growth in Georgia and cooperation with Russia may hint at future transit schemes impacting European energy markets and regional stability.
Cote d’Ivoire: Release of Gendarmes Unlikely to Improve Ties With Burkina Faso
What happened: On 5 December, Government Spokesperson Amadou Coulibaly announced that two Ivoirian gendarmes, who had been detained by Burkinabe security services in September 2023, had been released.
Why it matters: This comes amid Cote d’Ivoire’s concerted effort to improve bilateral ties ahead of Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso’s planned legal departure from regional bloc ECOWAS in January.
What happens next: The release is unlikely to herald a sustained improvement in diplomatic ties. Relations will likely remain tense in the run-up to Cote d’Ivoire’s 2025 presidential election.
Greece: Re-Nationalization of Gas Supplier to Launch Domino of Big Energy Deals
What happened: The national privatization fund is set to acquire Helleniq Energy’s stake in DEPA Commercial, giving the state full ownership of the gas supplier.
Why it matters: Rather than signaling a turn towards statism, we expect the move to trigger a series of deals that could reshape the domestic energy sector.
What happens next: The transfer of several strategic energy assets and the economics of the transaction will draw attention to New Democracy’s often controversial handling of state assets.
India: Adani Reveals Massive Green Energy Project with Hydro in Rajasthan
What happened: On 9 December, Adani Ports and SEZ Ltd Managing Director Karan Adani announced massive investments in Rajasthan valued at $88.5mn, including what Adani called “the world’s biggest integrated green energy ecosystem.” The project, he said, will feature 2mn tons of hydrogen and 100 GW of renewable energy overall. Otherwise, the announcement was light on details.
Why it matters: This represents the first major Adani investment since founder Gautam Adani’s US indictment last month. In other words, it’s significant not just because of the size and scale but also the timing.
What happens next: Investors should carefully monitor the progress of this investment as it will be a useful gauge of how the indictment may affect Adani’s businesses.
Kazakhstan: Underperformance and Tax Pressures Strain KMG Assets, Reflect Badly on Khasenov
What happened: KMG currently faces a number of challenges, including underperforming Romanian assets like Focsani and Rompetrol, legal disputes, financial losses and tax pressures.
Why it matters: These issues expose management inefficiencies, especially of KMG CEO Askhat Khasenov, raising doubts about the company’s ability to manage operations in key downstream assets.
What happens next: Khasenov and his team must optimize or sell their Romanian assets and address leadership and operational problems, particularly at the Atyrau Refinery, to restore stability and credibility.
Malaysia: Sabah’s Political Drama Makes the Peninsula Look Stable
What happened: Sabah lawmakers are being investigated over bribery allegations linking them with mineral exploration activities, sparking political turmoil.
Why it matters: The scandal threatens the ruling Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) coalition’s prospects in upcoming state elections and complicates an absurdly convoluted political climate.
What happens next: With state elections looming by December 2025, the fallout from these allegations could shift alliances, delay the polls and weaken Sabah’s bargaining position with the federal government.
Mexico: Sheinbaum Pitches North in Trade Tango
What happened: President Claudia Sheinbaum reaffirmed Mexico’s commitment to its North American trade partners, emphasizing the USMCA’s importance to counter China.
Why it matters: The US is increasingly concerned about China’s role in Mexico and Latin America; Sheinbaum must tread carefully amid trade tensions and security-related restrictions.
What happens next: Trump 2.0 will prompt Mexico to take stronger measures against perceived Chinese encroachments.
South Africa: Mini Reshuffle Shows Ramaphosa’s Weakness
What happened: On 3 December, President Cyril Ramaphosa swapped his minister of justice and minister of human settlements in a mini cabinet reshuffle.
Why it matters: Minister of Justice and Constitutional Development Thembi Simelane faces allegations of corruption from her time as mayor of Polokwane; her position was untenable given the conflict of interest in overseeing the National Prosecuting Authority (NPA).
What happens next: Ramaphosa has been criticized over his failure to dismiss — rather than transfer — Simelane, underlining the challenges in implementing strong governance reforms to bolster South Africa’s weakened institutions.
Stakeholder Influence Tracker
Rising Influence: Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman
Declining Influence: Colombian President Gustavo Petro
Find Out More
These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive products – if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.
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