Welcome to this week’s On Our Radar, our summary of developments from the past week that will have a significant impact on emerging markets, and, crucially, exactly why they are relevant to foreign investors.
These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive services – if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.
Country Insights Roundup
Indonesia/Japan: MRA Deal to Usher In New Era in Carbon Trading
What happened: Indonesia and Japan signed the first bilateral carbon trading mechanism under the Paris Agreement.
Why it matters: The deal will allow Japan to recognize carbon credits from Japanese-funded CCS and hydrogen projects in Indonesia.
What happens next: While Indonesia identifies potential opportunities, the two sides will promote the arrangement’s benefits to Japanese investors and domestic stakeholders.
Kazakhstan: Altynalmas Under Dzhumanbayev’s Leadership
What happened: Despite criminal investigations into his other companies in neighboring Kyrgyzstan, Vladimir Dzhumanbayev has led Altynalmas, one of Kazakhstan’s top gold producers, to visible financial growth in 2024, including a new real estate subsidiary.
Why it matters: Dzhumanbayev is an example of a mining sector principal with strong ties with both Nursultan Nazarvayev’s family and President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s administration.
What happens next: The company’s expanding operations, Dzhumanbayev’s growing influence and his close ties to the government and regional partners should help Altynalmas maintain its upward trajectory.
Malaysia: DNAA Ruling Secures Anwar’s Premiership
What happened: A non-judicial court ruling temporarily freed disgraced former Prime Minister Najib Razak from some 1MDB-related charges.
Why it matters: This helps Anwar Ibrahim to consolidate UMNO support for his unity government while keeping Najib and the deputy PM on a short leash.
What happens next: The move strengthens Anwar’s hold on power and dilutes Sarawak’s political leverage in the Petronas-Petros dispute.
Mexico: Pemex’s $20bn Question
What happened: Struggling with $20bn in supplier debt, Pemex has halted new contracts, while non-payment to suppliers has sparked protests in Tabasco and Campeche.
Why it matters: Pemex’s financial strain, coupled with a speculative credit rating and escalating supplier unrest, poses significant risks to the NOC’s operational continuity, investor confidence and the Sheinbaum administration’s fiscal stability.
What happens next: The Finance Ministry is working with international banks to restructure supplier debts while Pemex prioritizes payments to vulnerable contractors and implements austerity-driven reforms to stabilize its finances.
Mozambique: No End in Sight for Post-Election Unrest
What happened: Presidential runner-up Venancio Mondlane boycotted a meeting called by President Nyusi to end the ongoing civil unrest.
Why it matters: Nyusi and Mondlane are upping the ante as tensions rise and the economy falters ahead of the looming validation of the results, which could make things (even) worse.
What happens next: If negotiations fail, protesters may increase target assets in the logistics, mining and energy sectors.
Namibia: NNN Wins Presidential Election, Swapo Claims Slim Parliamentary Majority
What happened: Swapo candidate and Vice President Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah (NNN) was elected president of Namibia with 57.3% of the vote, according to the official results published on 3 December. Panduleni Itula, leader of the Independent Patriots for Change (IPC), placed second with 25.5%.
Why it matters: The result should reassure energy investors who value stability over the uncertainty of coalition negotiations, which would have been necessary if Swapo’s vote share had fallen below 50%. A potential runoff between NNN and Itula did not materialize, as the IPC leader underperformed compared to his 2019 presidential campaign.
What happens next: Alweendo’s only chance of remaining in the cabinet lies in NNN selecting him as one of her eight non-voting appointees to the National Assembly next year. If she does not, it is unclear who will replace him. Alweendo was well-regarded and trusted by investors.
Nigeria: Team Tinubu Takes Paris on State Visit
What happened: French President Emmanuel Macron welcomed President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to Paris for a state visit, cementing the pair’s close political and personal relationship.
Why it matters: The visit sent interesting cues about who is in and who is out in Tinubu’s top team. For Macron, Tinubu’s successful visit came in a whipsaw week for West African relations, as Senegal and Chad sought to end France’s military presence.
What happens next: Macron will lean into his relationship with Tinubu as former French colonies seek distance. This closeness will likely benefit French energy and mining investors in Nigeria, especially those who share networks with the two presidents.
South Korea: Martial Law Turmoil: Implications for Decarbonization and CCS
What happened: President Yoon Suk-yeol declared martial law late on 3 December, citing threats to democratic order and national security. Just six hours later, Yoon revoked the declaration after the National Assembly unanimously passed a resolution demanding its repeal.
Why it matters: The rapid reversal of martial law reflects governance fragility, potentially diverting attention and resources from clean energy goals like achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. Decarbonization projects — which require consistent policymaking and substantial public-private collaboration — may face delays as political leaders focus on the immediate crisis and impeachment threats.
What happens next: On the one hand, investors should anticipate delays in major decarbonization projects due to political gridlock. This may affect hydrogen supply chains, CCS deployment and renewable energy infrastructure. On the other hand, investors offering financial and technical expertise may find openings in hydrogen production, storage and transport of green and blue hydrogen with delayed government support.
Suriname: Climate-Oil Conundrum, Home Ministry Fight, Royalty Bonds
What happened: President Santokhi wants to have his cake and eat it by trying to get climate finance based on Suriname’s net-zero pledge while maximizing future oil revenues.
Why it matters: The dispute between ABOP and PL over control of the Home Ministry will probably trigger the latter’s exit from the ruling coalition.
What happens next: The administration’s new “Royalties for Everyone” may win Santokhi some votes in the 2025 election but seems ill-conceived given Suriname’s still nascent oil sector.
Stakeholder Influence Tracker
Rising Influence: Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman
Declining Influence: South Korean President Suk Yeol Yoon
Find Out More
These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive products – if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.
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