Hi, I am Caroline Doyle, an associate editor at Horizon Engage. This week, we’re covering drama brokers:
- Two of Libya’s expired parliamentary bodies met and forged a deal to produce a new roadmap to elections — with little detail and no UN approval.
- Aliyev’s criticism of the EU’s commitments to gas deals and other complications ahead of COP29.
- Brazil and the US signed a new climate partnership, which may be short-lived depending on who gets elected in November.
This week’s Quote of the Week comes from Argentine President Javier Milei, who had some personal things to say about political rival Azel Kicillof. Read more below!
Slim Prospects for New Libyan Dialogue
This month, two of Libya’s expired parliamentary bodies — the House of Representatives (HoR) and the High State Council (HSC) — forged a deal that included a roadmap to elections and a Government of National Unity. Most Libyans hold both groups largely in contempt, given their expired mandates. Libyans and international diplomats alike know the HoR and the HSC will maneuver as they please to delay elections that would shake up their existing power dynamics.
Little else about the deal came forth. One might feel a sense of déjà vu: a similar meeting in January yielded similar outcomes without much progress. The UN mission in Libya — not involved in either meeting — was unimpressed. They stated that any resolution to Libya’s political stalemate should be made under their guidance with a clear path to elections. However, without a stable envoy, their credibility is currently limited.
Aliyev Gets Testy
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev recently blasted the EU for only committing to short-term gas deals despite asking for more and more gas exports. In 2022, Baku signed an agreement with Brussels to boost gas exports, which is now under pressure. EU operators are hesitant to sign long-term contracts due to their own climate goals. This spells tension ahead of COP29, which Azerbaijan will host in November.
Aliyev is facing increasing drama surrounding COP29. Azerbaijan’s Climate Finance Action Fund has been met with little commitment. Critics raised concerns about a lack of compulsory mechanisms, questioning the fund’s effectiveness. Lead COP29 negotiator Yalchin Rafiyev has his work cut out for him.
Horizon Engage offers complimentary COP29 stakeholder intelligence — sign up today.
Climate Partnership Forged Under the Wire
At last week’s G20 Finance Ministers’ Meeting, Brazil’s Fernando Haddad and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen signed a declaration establishing a “climate partnership.” It covers clean energy value chains, carbon offset markets, protecting biodiversity and strengthening international climate action finance.
Various factors have hindered the Biden and Lula administrations’ collaboration, including the upcoming US presidential elections and Lula’s unwillingness to denounce Russia’s invasion of Ukraine soundly. If elected in November, US Vice President Harris would likely favor strengthening the partnership — the same cannot be said for a potential Trump administration.
Quote of the Week
This week’s featured quote comes from the ever-colorful Javier Milei. Speaking recently about Buenos Aires Governor Axel Kicillof’s decision on the location of a major LNG facility, the Argentine president said:
“It is obvious that the investment will go somewhere else because nobody wants the burden of dealing with the serial expropriator Kicillof.”
Interested in receiving On Our Radar direct to your inbox? Subscribe below.
About Horizon Engage
Horizon Engage provides country-level analysis on political, social and environmental issues that impact the investment climate for foreign direct investors. We’re changing the game for our clients by merging tech and geopolitical expertise in a whole new way. Let us be your eyes and ears so you can make decisions with confidence. Learn what we do.
