Hi, I am Caroline Doyle, an associate editor at Horizon Engage. In our newsletter this week, you can read about disputes: what a potential second Trump administration could mean for US-MENA relations, the implications of the French elections for West Africa and a hydrogen-focused legal battle in South Korea. This week’s quote of the week features strong statements on the future of crude oil from Oando Energy Resource’s COO Dr. Ainojie Irune. Read more below!
Trump Vs. MENA (Maybe)
Ahead of the November US elections, our analysts have assessed what US-MENA relations might look like under a potential second Trump administration. Trump’s priorities will largely depend on his attention span: Some issues will have dedicated attention, like big-ticket economic deals and the Saudi-Israel-US normalization deal. Other issues on his desk will come from trusted insiders — think Fox News anchors — and will likely align with Republican foreign policy priorities.
However, Trump is contrarian and inconsistent; he will likely follow his instincts as he sees fit. Autocrats like Sisi, Erdogan, Netanyahu and others will find a friend in him. However, Trump largely sees the entire MENA region as a waste of time and money — partners looking for handouts will likely be left wanting.
French Elections: Implications for West Africa
On 7 July, the French runoff elections blocked the National Rally’s (RN) far-right government takeover. The left, however, had limited reason to celebrate: Parliament is hamstrung and with a caretaker government, France will have little ability to do, well, much at all. For West Africa, where French influence has been waning, and some MENA countries, there is a range of implications.
First, the French government will have little capacity to project or regain any influence in the Sahel, let alone combat Russia from stepping in. However, this may help stabilize Algeria-Morocco relations regarding Western Sahara after France hinted at picking a side earlier this year. Second, the right-wing loss means that African countries hoping to benefit from an anti-immigrant sentiment (such as through funds to prevent illegal migration) will be left wanting. Third, a continued leftist government in France means it will not cut or alter the EU’s climate policies. For many West African countries, this means continued decreasing support for oil and gas but a boost for renewable energy initiatives.
South Korea’s Hydrogen Legal Dispute
Currently, South Korea’s Constitutional Court is debating a challenge to the government’s Clean Hydrogen Certification system. The system includes “blue” hydrogen, produced from natural gas with CCS. Environment groups have argued the classification misleads the public about blue hydrogen’s environmental impact.
The groups claim that producing 1 kg of blue hydrogen produces 15.4 kg of CO2 emissions, undermining the system’s sustainability goals. Including blue hydrogen under the umbrella of clean hydrogen has proven controversial, and if the court deems the system unconstitutional, it must be excluded. Other plans — including the EU’s plans to go net zero by 2050 — give significant roles to blue hydrogen. Some South Korean companies have even already invested in blue hydrogen production facilities. Those advocating for a renewables-only future will be hoping the Court rules against the government.
Quote of the Week
At last week’s Nigerian Oil and Gas Energy Week in Abuja, the COO of Oando Energy Resources, Dr. Ainojie Irune, made strong statements about the future of crude oil.
He stated: “At Oando, we no longer feel pressured by the energy transition push; instead, we see an acceleration in our crude oil extraction. Therefore, African countries need to extract every molecule of crude oil from beneath the earth’s surface and use natural gas to champion the continent towards sustainable development.”
He later noted that Oando can also “harness” renewable energy in addition to its “every molecule” mission. It’s also worth noting that Oando Energy Resources’ Group Chief Executive is Adewale (Wale) Tinubu, nephew of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
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