,

French Elections: Impact in Africa

On Our Radar: Legal and Electoral Disputes

On 7 July, France’s runoff elections blocked the National Rally’s (RN) far-right takeover of the government but left a hung parliament. In our view, the outcome will influence the dynamic with West Africa in three main ways.

  1. France Will Struggle to Project Influence Abroad

France’s attention is turned inward. It will not have much ability to pursue ambitious foreign policy goals, including regaining the influence it has recently lost in the Sahel. Recent military coups in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger have installed anti-French leaders who are quickly turning to Russia for support. France’s domestic distractions will hinder its ability to combat this shift. However, France’s decreasing influence may actually help stabilize the dynamic between Algeria and Morocco regarding the independence of Western Sahara.

  1. The Right’s Loss & Key International Partners

The RN’s anti-immigrant sentiments had Cameroon, Chad, Cote d’Ivoire or Libya hoping a victory would mean more funds to block illegal migration to Europe. Egypt, Mauritania and Tunisia signed similar hundred-million-dollar deals with the EU in 2023. However, leftist leaders, like Senegalese President Diomaye Daye, would have struggled to get along with a right-wing French government. Algeria is likely pleased: The RN’s predecessors opposed its independence from France, and RN founder Jean-Marie Le Pen allegedly tortured Algerian detainees during his time in the army.

  1. France Won’t Change EU Climate Policies

France has been central in shaping the EU’s energy policy, attempting to balance energy security and climate protection goals. An RN government would have slashed funding for green energy goals. While the EU’s decisions to cut funding for oil and gas while imposing carbon-adjustment mechanisms have opened a can of worms, African partners can expect more funding for green energy projects.

Interested in learning about Horizon Engage’s Africa coverage?

Please provide your email below to receive more of our analysis.

About Horizon Engage

Horizon Engage provides country-level analysis on political, social and environmental issues that impact the investment climate for foreign direct investors. We’re changing the game for our clients by merging tech and geopolitical expertise in a whole new way. Let us be your eyes and ears so you can make decisions with confidence. Learn what we do.

Latest Analysis

Algeria-Flag-Sun-and-Sky-Web

Is 2024 a Turning Point in Algeria’s Quest for Energy Growth?

President Tebboune and Algeria are eager for foreign investment: To remain an energy leader, Algeria must branch out beyond traditional oil and gas.

Screenshot

Decarbonization: 9 Key Technologies to Harness

As time runs out to keep global climate goals within reach, governments are scrambling for anything that can help them achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.

On Our Radar: Legal and Electoral Disputes

Legal and Electoral Disputes

In our newsletter this week, you can read about US-MENA relations under a potential second Trump administration, the implications of the French elections for West Africa and a hydrogen-focused legal battle in South Korea.