My name is Caroline Doyle, and I am an associate editor at Horizon Engage. This week, it’s all about elections. Claudia Sheinbaum won Mexico’s presidential elections comfortably, while Narendra Modi won a third term as India’s prime minister, though his party underperformed significantly. Meanwhile, South Africa’s elections saw record low turnout, and the ruling ANC has been backed into a coalition corner. Read more below!
Sheinbaum Will be Mexico’s Next President
Claudia Sheinbaum won Mexico’s presidential elections this past weekend with a considerable margin of victory. Her ruling MORENA party is four Senate seats shy of an entire Congressional supermajority. Hopefully — for Sheinbaum — her negotiating skills aren’t rusty.
Sheinbaum has pledged to maintain many of her predecessor’s principles, particularly the separation of political and economic power, a mainstay of AMLO’s tenure. This includes the so-called “Plan C,” which involves diminishing the power of independent institutions such as the Supreme Court, a potentially concerning upset of checks and balances. We have our eyes on several future developments, including Sheinbaum’s plans for Pemex, who will be on her economic team and how she may try to step out of AMLO’s shadow.
The outcome of the US elections may affect these plans — sign up for Horizon Engage’s webinar, “How Will Claudia Sheinbaum Deal with Trump 2.0?” to learn more.
Modi Signals Dedication to Green Energy
To no one’s surprise, Prime Minister Narendra Modi won a third term in India’s recent elections. But few expected his ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would take a serious blow. The BJP lost 63 seats and could not secure a majority for the first time since it came to power, forcing it into a coalition. Modi was unanimously elected its leader.
Modi’s victory does allow some of his policies to move forward largely uninterrupted, including India’s National Green Hydrogen Mission. Last week, India’s largest natural gas transmission and distribution company, GAIL, inaugurated the country’s very first green hydrogen production facility. The facility has the capacity to produce 4,300 kg of hydrogen daily, meaning that (if all runs smoothly) India will easily reach its goal to produce 5mn metric tons of hydrogen by 2030 as part of its larger effort to become a global green hydrogen hub. That said, GAIL has not put forward an official time frame, although Modi’s dedication to the mission is clear.
The ANC Needs a Helping Hand
South Africa’s 29 May general elections saw the lowest voter turnout in 30 years of democracy. The ruling ANC failed to reach a majority for the first time and will need to organize a coalition to form a government. Unfortunately, there are no easy or obvious choices, and the Constitution requires the first sitting of National Assembly to take place two weeks after election results are declared. Under a time crunch, the ANC will likely have to grit its teeth during negotiations to find a palatable coalition.
Support for the ANC dwindled considerably since the 2019 general election for many reasons. High among them is electricity: Rolling blackouts — and the lack of a solution for them — have frustrated citizens. One of the more recent attempts to fix it, the Integrated Resource Plan for Electricity, was widely criticized for a lengthy timeline; its best-case scenario saw shortages continuing through 2028. The current monthly free basic electricity allowance is 50 kWh — most low-income households consume between 300-400 kWh per month. Now that the ANC can relate to experiencing a shortage, perhaps it will be more motivated to expedite a solution before the next general elections.
Quote of the Week
This week, Horizon Engage’s Director for the Americas, Marcelo J. García, was quoted in the Financial Times about Argentina’s brand-new Cabinet Chief, Guillermo Francos: “They have realized they have a serious political deficit, and they can’t get to the midterms without resolving it. They need a wheeler-dealer, someone who is comfortable in the scrum — that’s Francos.” You can read the article, written by Ciara Nugent, here.
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