My name is Caroline Doyle, and I am an associate editor at Horizon Engage. This week, I am covering succession the uncertain future of Iran’s leadership following President Ebrahim Raisi’s death, Horizon Engage’s participation in the Africa Energies Summit, and the Mexican elections that are coming up very soon! Read more below.
Raisi’s Death Complicates Future of Iran’s Leadership
The death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash comes amid strong regional instability. Though Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei swiftly followed the constitution’s succession plan and attempted to reassure the public, Iran’s sense of vulnerability comes with risks. Externally, international policymakers (i.e. Washington and Tel Aviv) are taking the cornered wild animal approach: avoiding giving Tehran any reason to lash out. Internally, we expect a struggle for succession, even though few have a fighting chance (not unlike in the HBO Original Series), and all will still be hardline conservatives. Interim President Mohammed Mokhber is not expected to hold on to the seat, try as he might.
Raisi’s death complicates yet another succession plan: Khamenei’s. Raisi was widely expected to succeed Khamenei — now 85 years old — as Supreme Leader. Khamenei will look to avoid widening the race (his son will likely be a strong contender), but if his health fails soon, he may not have a choice.
Horizon Engage Proud to Be the Intelligence Partner for the Africa Energies Summit
Last week, Horizon Engage served as the Intelligence Partner for the Africa Energies Summit, and my colleagues who traveled to London to attend came back with valuable takeaways. Our CEO, Joe Goldberg, relayed the huge enthusiasm for African exploration in both new and well-established jurisdictions. Right now, Namibia and Senegal are new kids on the block, and everyone wants to be Namibia’s best friend. (While many have orange-basin-colored glasses on, we will be watching the upcoming presidential elections in November closely.) Perhaps afraid of being forgotten, Angola and Nigeria are offering new incentives for investors to remain relevant amid surging continental interest.
Our Director for Sub-Saharan Africa, Clementine Wallop, spoke on the summit’s keynote panel, discussing shoring up domestic financing for African energy. Nigeria or Ghana will soon house the Africa Energy Bank, which is due to become operational this year. Worry not — there are plenty of opportunities for FDI, too. More takeaways here.
Mexico Elections on the Horizon (Pun Not Intended)
Mexico’s presidential and local elections are coming up quickly on Sunday, 2 June 2024. While MORENA’s Claudia Sheinbaum is still widely expected to win the top job, we believe the margin of victory — which is also crucial to the makeup of Mexico’s Congress — will be narrower than anticipated. Sheinbaum is unlikely to have the same landslide victory as President AMLO in 2018, despite campaigns for voter turnout (and saying the opposition specializes in election fraud).
Leading up to 2 June, Sheinbaum and opposition candidate Xochitl Galvez faced off in their third and final presidential debate, though it was rather anticlimactic. Both candidates stuck to familiar strategies: Galvez launched many personal attacks against Sheinbaum, who protected her comfortable lead by staying primarily on the defensive. In the likely case of a Sheinbaum win, we will be closely watching for her cabinet picks, which may hint at her potential administration’s priorities — renewable energy will likely be high on the list.
Quote of the Week
This week’s featured quote comes from Horizon Engage’s own co-founder, Alexander Zaslavsky, who was featured in Veriten’s “C.O.B. Tuesday” podcast to discuss COP29 and Azerbaijan’s role as a host. COP29 will be held in a complex neighborhood. “Azerbaijan is directly impacted by the war in Ukraine. It has closely allied itself with Israel and, more importantly, with Turkey. It has a very difficult relationship with Iran. And it has become a much more important player for Europe’s energy security, taking Gazprom’s market share.”
For more of his insights and expertise on this topic, listen to the podcast here!
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