My name is Caroline Doyle, and I am an associate editor at Horizon Engage. This week, our newsletter covers Russia’s malign involvement in Libya’s oil industry (smuggling?), big dreams for Malaysia’s energy transition, and a trade freeze between Turkey and Israel. Read more below.
How is Russia Involved in Libya’s Oil Smuggling?
In April, British Conservative MP Daniel Kawczynski submitted a parliamentary question asking Deputy Foreign Secretary David Rutley about countering ill-intentioned foreign actors (so, Russia) in Libya’s oil industry. In response, Rutley noted the NOC’s “vulnerability” to outside actors who “seek to benefit from Libya’s political instability.”
Surprising no one, he passed the buck to the UN, saying only they could make sustainable political progress. However, the British government would support tackling fuel smuggling in Libya. Keep in mind the UN’s envoy to Libya resigned recently, so Rutley’s comments are not exactly encouraging. Still, with the country’s political instability and little help from the UN or otherwise, we do not expect much short-term progress.
Malaysia’s Biomass Plans Are Probably Wishful Thinking
This month, Sarawak Premier Abang Jo announced that two coal-powered plants in Sejinkat and Balingian would be converted to biomass energy. This is a significant move in Malaysia’s energy transition, but don’t let get your hopes up. The Borneo state is trying to position itself to lead Malaysia’s renewable efforts by 2030, but it still relies heavily on oil and gas. Though Sarawak has plentiful renewable opportunities, realizing them is another matter.
The federal government will likely not offer any help lest the state gets a taste for power and independence, and the practical hurdles of converting two massive plants (logistics, costs, all the typical boring stuff) loom large. It’s one thing to dream big, another to win big — keep that grain of salt on hand.
Turkey Halts all Trade with Israel
On 1 May, Ankara suspended all trade with Israel until Israel allows adequate and continued aid into Gaza. The freeze is a big deal: bilateral trade reached almost $7bn last year. Trade with Israel has become an increasingly volatile issue in Turkey: While the public has been eager to see President Erdogan make a decisive move, the business community wants to protect their Israeli interests.
There are international influences at play, too — the trade freeze was part of security negotiations between the US and Turkey as bilateral relations thaw. Resuming trade will be tricky, especially if other countries follow Turkey’s lead or if the current Israeli government collapses. For now, though, the US and the EU have offered little pushback against widespread disengagement from Israel.
Quote of the Week
This week’s featured quote comes from home soil. As election season in the US heats up, the energy sector is preparing itself for a possible second Trump presidency. Some are keen to undo the many regulations the Biden administration has introduced. One former lobbyist for the refining industry said, “It’s going to be like shooting fish in the barrel — there’s just so much to go after.”
Interested in receiving On Our Radar direct to your inbox? Subscribe below.
About Horizon Engage
Horizon Engage provides country-level analysis on political, social and environmental issues that impact the investment climate for foreign direct investors. We’re changing the game for our clients by merging tech and geopolitical expertise in a whole new way. Let us be your eyes and ears so you can make decisions with confidence. Learn what we do.
