This post could have been called “Reasons to be Less Miserable”: There is no getting around how hard times are in Nigeria or the complexities energy companies face doing business there.

Despite this, some recent signs are giving us hope for a more stable, if not outright sunny, patch ahead. Although the below list may face gaps between intention and execution under parts of government, we are watching hopefully for signs Abuja is building on recent progress.

  1. Tinubu’s energy reforms
    President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s oil and gas directives, signed in early March, have excited investors. Implementation may be tricky, but the implications on paper are very positive. 
  2. A healthier central bank 
    Under Gov. Yemi Cardoso, the Central Bank of Nigeria is moving away from the turbulence of the Emefiele era. A recent rate hike and gradual clearing of a foreign exchange backlog signal more rational times ahead. 
  3. A steadier outlook on the naira
    After extreme volatility and a flood of regulatory changes at the start of the year, Nigeria’s currency is steadier, although still vulnerable to shocks. Banks and ratings agencies are noticing. 
  4. Responsiveness to criticism
    The rapid reversal of the planned expatriate employment levy showed the government’s preparedness to engage with stakeholder criticism, even if the product made it to launch.
  5. An imminent cabinet reshuffle 
    President Tinubu has promised to remove underperforming ministers; a reshuffle is slated for late May. The exit of lackluster ministers may see the return of some strong political performers, adding authority to Tinubu’s claims that he is focused on results.

Horizon Engage on Africa

Fresh from her recent trip to Lagos, Clementine Wallop looks at how Tinubu’s reforms have Nigeria spinning. Request the latest issue.

What lessons do these devaluation cases hold for investors? Find out in our latest cross-border analysis.

Horizon Engage will be the Intelligence Partner of the Africa Energies Summit in May. Clementine Wallop, Director, Sub-Saharan Africa will be participating in the “Attracting Foreign Investors” panel. To schedule a meeting with our team, please provide your email below.

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