Hi, I’m Caroline, an associate editor at Horizon Engage. I am back with another newsletter covering a few things we are keeping an eye on in energy politics. This week, we’re covering Milei reaching 100 days in office in Argentina, significant privatization rumors in Kazakhstan and reversing a controversial policy in Nigeria. Read more below!
Argentina — Milei Ends His Honeymoon
On 19 March, Javier Milei hit 100 days in office, and he even managed to keep about half of Argentina on his side of the opinion polls. Milei’s administration has achieved a fiscal surplus faster than expected, although he’s angered a few unions along the way. His lack of Congressional support, however, is crystal clear: Congress has not passed a single bill since Milei’s 10 December inauguration.
It also dealt some painful blows to the administration, including killing Milei’s infamous “omnibus” decree (which is, so far, the only reform tool his administration has put forward). If he wants to find success in the next 100 days, Milei is going to have to make some friends in Congress.
Kazakhstan — KMG Denies Privatization Rumors
Earlier this week, KazMunayGas (KMG) strongly denied rumors that it was considering selling two of its three major refineries, Pavlodar and Atyrau. Although KMG’s deputy CEO insists there are no talks of privatization, it is clear that these refineries’ issues are unresolved. First, all three of KMG’s refineries got an expensive facelift in 2018 that did not yield a competitive oil supply.
Second, the Atyrau refinery is embroiled in a corruption scandal: its former CEO claims he was fired for trying to stop corrupt practices, and top energy officials are pointing fingers in different directions. Last, top officials already suggested privatizing the refineries pre-pandemic, but Akorda first wants to move towards price liberalization, although this would require removing subsidies, risking unrest. Unless the government can think through price liberalization carefully, the blame game will continue (to no one’s benefit).
Nigeria — EEL Repeal
Less than two weeks after it was announced, President Bola Tinubu suspended the wildly unpopular Expatriate Employment Levy (EEL) following outright fury from stakeholders and industry groups. Although it was positive to see Tinubu’s government respond to stakeholder feedback quickly and effectively, it’s concerning that the EEL launched in the first place.
For an administration that desperately wants to at least be seen as business-friendly, a $10k charge on expat staff ($15k for director-level or above) is nonsensical to say the least. Although the EEL was proposed under former President Buhari, Tinubu’s Interior Minister Bummi Tunji-Ojo is responsible for pushing ahead with it. A rumored cabinet reshuffle slated for late May could see Tunji-Ojo and others on the outs for the embarrassment.
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